🌍 China isn’t ready to give up coal power

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: Two explosions rocked a counterterrorism facility on Monday, killing at least 15 people. Authorities haven’t said whether it was terrorism or an accident involving improperly stored munitions.

2. 🇫🇷 France: Paris is looking to prevent the US takeover of a French nuclear-submarine parts supplier, to avoid giving Washington access to sensitive French tech. Nuclear subs are a touchy subject for Paris after the US played a role in Australia’s axeing of a $90B French subs contract.

3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Authorities have issued a stay-at-home warning as a record-breaking heatwave grips much of Southeast Asia. Thailand recently recorded its highest-ever temperature (45.5°C / 114°F).

4. 🇺🇸 US: President Joe Biden has formally announced he’s running for re-election in 2024. Polls suggest lukewarm support for another run, but most Democrats say they’d still support him as nominee.

5. 🇸🇩 Sudan: The warring factions in Sudan have agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire, allowing thousands of people to evacuate from conflict zones. Previous attempts to negotiate a truce have failed to stop the fighting that’s caused upwards of 400 deaths.

🇨🇳 CHINA | ENERGY

China’s coal habit is getting worse

Briefly: Local governments in China reportedly approved more coal power plants last year than any time in the past seven years. Clocking in at around two new plant approvals per week, that’s more than the rest of the world combined.

In 2021, President Xi Jinping said China would “strictly limit” coal and eventually phase it out to reach net zero by 2060. But this is proving difficult, due to:

1. ⚡ Huge power outages in 2021

2. 💣 Energy security concerns sparked by the Russo-Ukraine War, and

3. 📈 China’s current focus on boosting post-pandemic economic growth

Yet in this context (as in many others), China’s immediate and domestic decisions can have long-term and global impacts: China’s energy sector makes up 90% of its total emissions, which in turn make up nearly a third of total global emissions.

Intrigue’s take: But things in China are rarely as clear as they seem. Sure, it’s gobbling up coal like Super Bowl fans hitting the chicken wings. And yet it’s also:

• The world’s largest and fastest-growing producer of renewable energy

• The world’s largest clean energy investor, and

• Producer of half the world’s EVs plus most of its solar panels

So this is probably less about Beijing hitting ctrl-z on its energy policy, and more about a) panicked local governments responding to recent energy fears, and b) China’s coal sector seizing its final opportunity to get new plants approved.

Still, the path to net zero runs through China. And that path now looks narrower.

Also worth noting:

• Grid upgrades will be crucial to China’s energy transition: most of its energy resources are in the country’s west, yet most of its power consumption happens in its central and eastern provinces.

• In 2022, China spent $546B in green investments, more than the EU ($180B) and US ($141B) combined.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Patent Drop

🌍 WORLD | DEFENCE & SECURITY

Global military spending continues to rise

Briefly: Global defence spending in 2022 increased for the eighth consecutive year to an all-time high of $2.24T, according to a Sweden-based think tank.

Here’s a snapshot of details that caught our eye:

1. 🇯🇵 Japan’s defence spending hit 1.1% of GDP, its highest since 1960

2. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s spending rose (by 16%) for the first time since 2018

3. 🇪🇺 Spending in Central & Western Europe hit a new post-Cold War high

4. 🇫🇮 NATO’s newest member (Finland) jacked its spending up 36%, and

5. 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s 640% increase was the largest anywhere since 1949

The study attributes Japan’s spending growth to concerns about China and North Korea. And Saudi Arabia’s increase stems from its intervention in Yemen.

Intrigue’s take: As for Europe’s boost in defence spending? Expenditure there was already rising before Russia invaded Ukraine. But when a nuclear power and permanent member of the UN Security Council invades one of your neighbours, it’s no surprise when you decide to double down on that accelerator.

Also worth noting:

• China’s military spending grew for the 28th consecutive year, the longest uninterrupted run of any country. Its 4.2% rate of growth was China’s second slowest growth rate since 1995 (the slowest was in 2021).

• The US expanded its military spending by 0.7% last year. It spent more than the next ten countries combined.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

PS, here are those coal facts you didn’t ask for:

• It takes about 1 million years to form coal

• Tinnunculite is a substance that’s only produced when a European falcon poops on a burning coal mine (we promise it’s real)

• The world holds an estimated 1.07 trillion tonnes of coal reserves

• Coal is the world’s single largest source of electricity, and its single largest source of CO2 emissions

📸 PHOTO OF THE DAY

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used Russia’s time as president of the UN Security Council (which rotates on a monthly basis) to hold a meeting on the “maintenance of international peace and security” on Monday. Not all members of the Council seemed impressed.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think Ukraine's spring counter-offensive will gain?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚜 Significant territorial gains (46%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🗺️ Only small advances (38%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ❌ Nothing, the status quo will prevail (14%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🚜 S.W: “Ukraine has repeatedly surprised the world with outsized results with inadequate arms compensated for by extreme ingenuity and skill as would be expected from a cornered tiger. ”

• 🖋️ T.P.G: “While territorial gains and losses are important for morale and propaganda, this is unmistakably a war of attrition. […] a long-term intractable conflict looms unless global diplomacy efforts pull a rabbit out of their collective hat.”