Plus: TV show of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why is China surrounding Taiwan again? |
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ TV show of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Here’s a smug word to drop into conversation: ‘teleological’. If you really want to level it up a notch, you could explain that it comes from the Greek words ‘telos’ (purpose) and ‘logos’ (reason).
But then the other person might ask, um, why are you telling me this? But fear not, dear Intriguer, because that’s when you explain that ‘teleological’ is a term often used to describe Leninist parties, including the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As the theory goes, they’re organised around – and exist for – the accomplishment of a goal.
Ie, just like how some sharks sink if they stop, Leninist parties like the CCP theoretically risk collapse if they’re not continually mobilising towards some bigger objective.
But then the other person might ask, um, what kind of objective are we talking about here? But fear not, dear Intriguer, because today’s briefing leads with an exploration of a goal many argue serves precisely that purpose for the CCP: seizing Taiwan.
But then the other person might say, um, sir? This is a Wendy’s.
Canada and India ties worsen as top diplomats expelled.
Ottawa has expelled six Indian diplomats, linking them to the murder of an Indian separatist leader and accusing India of supporting “criminal activities” on Canadian soil. Just hours earlier, New Delhi published an incendiary statement denying Ottawa’s allegations and accused the Trudeau administration of pursuing a “political agenda”.
Israel tells US it will target Iranian military facilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly assured the Biden Administration that Israel’s retaliation against Iran will target military rather than oil or nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike on a Christian-majority town in northern Lebanon killed over 20 people on Monday, according to Lebanese health authorities.
US mulls capping Nvidia chip exports.
Biden Administration officials are reportedly considering limiting the number of advanced AI chips sold to the Gulf states (and their AI advancements). If enacted, the Gulf states would join the 40+ countries with existing AI chips sales limits, for fear they would be resold to China.
Google goes nuclear.
The tech giant has inked a deal with Kairos Power to purchase six of seven small nuclear reactors, in a move to secure a low-carbon power source for its data centres. Google is betting big on nuclear energy: just last month it announced it would be reviving the infamous Three Mile Island site as a power source for its AI developments.
Global public debt to reach $100T by end of year.
A new report by the IMF forecasts the global debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 93% this year, and continue to rise. The institution warns that “much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt”.
TOP STORY
Why did China just rehearse a Taiwan invasion again?
Oddly, the Chinese Coast Guard noted that the drills formed the shape of a love heart. Credits: Weibo.
Folks in Taiwan exhaled overnight as China withdrew its forces after encircling the democratic and self-ruled island with mass military exercises.
Here’s what happened. Early yesterday morning (Monday), Beijing launched a set of joint military drills involving troops from its army, navy, air force, and rocket force (yes, that’s a real thing). They were simulating an assault on Taiwan from multiple directions, and lest anyone be confused about the specifics, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) spokesperson spelled it all out:
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The troops reportedly focussed on “joint sea-air combat readiness patrol, the blockade and control of key ports and areas, strikes on sea and land targets, and the seizure of comprehensive battlefield control”.
And it wasn’t just talk, either. Taiwan says it spotted 34 naval vessels and 125 military aircraft, potentially marking modern China’s biggest single-day deployment to date.
Why? With these manoeuvres now increasingly routine (more on that below), there’s a solid chance leaders in Beijing are actually just asking themselves ‘why not?’ at this point.
But for a proximate explanation, it’s worth noting that yesterday’s drills came just days after Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, gave his first Taiwan national day speech.
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The date alone (10/10) is touchy for China because it marks the establishment of the Republic of China (ROC) on the mainland in 1911 — Mao’s communists later ousted the ROC in a 1949 civil war that birthed today’s People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland, while the ROC survives as today’s Taiwan.
So with the Communist Party seeing Taiwan’s very existence as unfinished business (even though the Party has never ruled Taiwan), a Beijing spokesperson has sought to justify yesterday’s military drills as “a firm response to Lai Ching-te's continued fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ fallacies and his propagation of separatist agendas”.
So, what did Lai say last week? The short answer: nothing that hasn’t been said before. In fact, by Lai’s standards, his address was notable for its relative lack of sass. Eg:
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Just this past weekend, he questioned how China could be Taiwan’s ‘motherland’ if Taiwan’s Republic is actually older than China’s People’s Republic; and
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Last month, he suggested that if China believes it owns Taiwan based on the former Qing Dynasty’s patchy control, shouldn’t Beijing also be pushing to yoink back some of that same dynasty’s land that’s now controlled by Russia?
But Lai’s address didn’t really go there. To the contrary, he actually opened the door to cooperation with Beijing “on addressing climate change, combating infectious diseases, and maintaining regional security to pursue peace and mutual prosperity”.
And yet of course, notwithstanding all the above, Lai’s address did still remain firm on defending the island’s self-rule, insisting he will “uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.”
So how has the rest of the world responded to all this? Pretty much the same as last time — with strongly-worded statements:
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Washington at least mixed things up a little by pre-empting this year’s PLA spectacle, saying Lai’s speech would be “no justification” for possible military drills
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Then once China kicked off its drills, the US went a step further, calling the war games “provocations” and “unwarranted”, while vowing to “monitor PRC activities and coordinate with allies and partners regarding our shared concerns”
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Meanwhile, the EU, yes, called on “all parties to exercise restraint” 🔥🔥🔥🔥, and
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Russia, increasingly subservient to China as its own Ukraine invasion drags on, simply reported China’s official position word for word via state media.
Which all leaves us roughly where we were before: Taiwan seeking to preserve the fragile status quo in which it has flourished; the PLA now casually rehearsing a full-scale invasion twice a year; and the rest of the world looking on nervously, if it’s looking on at all.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
How should we interpret all this? One might argue it’s technically not an escalation, because China has now spent the last few years ratcheting things up gradually, so that mass drills after routine political events in Taiwan have now become the new normal.
In fact, China even named these drills ‘Joint Sword-2024B’, which is funny because it named its last drills (after Lai’s inauguration back in May) ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ – ie, even the name seeks to portray it all as a mere continuation rather than escalation.
And that’s kinda the point: this slow ratcheting up of pressure on Taiwan means any single act can start to look unsurprising if not normal, potentially curbing the world’s willingness if not ability to ask whether any of this is even acceptable.
Also worth noting:
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The US, like most of the international community, doesn’t recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Instead, the US adheres to its own ‘one China policy’, which recognises the mainland government as the sole government of China, though it stops short of endorsing China’s claims over Taiwan (ditto for any Taiwanese claims of formal independence).
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US law obliges the US to provide Taiwan enough defence equipment and services to defend itself. But the US policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ leaves open (by design) the question of whether the US would itself defend Taiwan.
A MESSAGE FROM THE HEICHINGER REPORT
How does climate change affect education?
The Hechinger Report covers inequality and innovation in education, and we just launched a newsletter all about how climate change is reshaping schools and learning, from pre-K to college and beyond. Caroline Preston, our managing editor, brings you insights on the threats from climate change to education, as well as how schools and workforce systems are preparing the next generation for a changed climate.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: As Islamabad gears up to welcome Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders this week, local residents are now on a three-day public holiday for the city’s strict security lockdown. Premier Li Qiang’s arrival yesterday (Monday) marked China’s first premier visit in more than a decade, as separatist groups continue to target China’s growing interests in the country.
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🇮🇸 Iceland: Prime Minister Benediktsson has asked Iceland’s president to dissolve parliament and call a snap election on November 30th, after his ruling coalition seemingly collapsed. While the president hasn’t yet formally agreed, Benediktsson says his current coalition is divided on the economy, energy, and immigration.
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🇸🇬 Singapore: The city-state has blocked a deal that would’ve seen German giant Allianz acquire Singapore’s Income Insurance for $1.68B. News of the deal triggered a public outcry when it first emerged back in July, because the company started out as a social enterprise focused on providing folks with low-cost insurance.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: The state-owned oil giant Petrobras has unveiled its new mantra of ‘all the oil counts’ ahead of the company’s November meeting. The management team says it plans to extract as much oil as possible from its existing fields while also exploring new fields to mitigate future production declines.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 3.4% to 3%, citing Sudan’s deadly civil war as a key drag on regional growth. But it’s not all gloomy, with the World Bank also saying inflation figures are trending downwards and growth is still projected to be higher than in 2023.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
The Intrigue jobs board is back!
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Consultant, Strategy & Transformation @ Mastercard in Hong Kong
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Analyst, Global Contract Management @ Warner Bros in Mexico City
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Economic Affairs Officer @ UN in New Delhi
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Development and Outreach Associate @ Human Rights Watch in New York City
TV SHOW OF THE DAY
Credits: Netflix.
Netflix has already renewed The Diplomat for a third season before the show’s second season even premieres on October 31. Keri Russell plays veteran US diplomat Kate Wyler in the show, which immediately became Netflix’s most-viewed title during its first two weeks, while reaching Top 10 status in 87 countries!
Stationed in London, Russell plays a career diplomat who is unexpectedly appointed US ambassador to the UK, navigating a tricky relationship with her British counterparts while leaning on her (hot) husband for support, though he has an intriguing diplomatic backstory of his own.
As ex-diplomats ourselves, we often get asked whether we like the show (yes! Diplomacy is finally getting the Netflix treatment a la spy flicks) and whether it’s ‘realistic’. On that second front, we’d say it’s more authentic than realistic. Ie, the relationships, tensions, and pressures of diplomatic life are all there, even if the screenwriters have dialled the details all the way up to 11. Trust us when we say that if the show was technically ‘accurate’, it’d be a snooze-fest and not getting a third season.
DAILY POLL
What's your favourite TV show or movie about diplomats? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you see UNIFIL headed?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💪 It needs more support to achieve its mission (34%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚪 It's lost credibility and needs to be withdrawn (63%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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🚪 T.A.L: “As a former UNIFIL service member, I was aghast as to how light the force is and its insufficient mandate. They have proven to be unable to fulfil their mission. Either pump them up to match the mission or withdraw.”
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💪 D.D: “Besides more resources (especially soldiers), it should be given more powers to shoot on any unauthorized armed party entering the zone.”
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✍️ Don C: “UNIFIL never really had any credibility to lose. Neither side has ever respected it and for the UN it's always been a feel-good moment.”
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