Plus: Flag of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ China’s “punishment” drills around Taiwan |
2️⃣ A weekend in Cairo |
3️⃣ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. A lot of diplomacy involves ceremonial overtures. That could be a credentials ceremony for a newly-arrived ambassador (one of our friends just got treated to one this week!), parades to commemorate milestone moments, or even a military flex to remind your neighbours of your red lines.
We dive into that last one today, for the latest flare up in and around the Taiwan Strait.
Israel pushes deeper into Rafah.
The Israeli military has expanded its operation against Hamas into central Rafah despite international criticism. Around 815,000 Palestinians who were previously sheltering there, following Israel’s evacuation orders elsewhere, have now fled the city. The International Court of Justice says it’ll rule today (Friday) on South Africa’s request for an immediate halt to Israel’s Rafah operation.
Russia widens crackdown on military leadership.
Authorities have arrested Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin on suspicions of large-scale corruption. This is the fourth arrest of a senior military figure in a month, and it’s starting to look a lot like a purge, though that’s something Moscow has denied. Meanwhile, President Putin arrives in Belarus today for a two-day state visit with his ally and neighbour.
Macron pauses New Caledonia vote reform.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said he won’t force through a controversial voting reform that has sparked deadly protests in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia. Speaking after an 18-hour visit to the archipelago for meetings with local leaders, Macron urged them to find an alternative agreement for New Caledonia’s future.
Indonesia wants to join mega Pacific trade pact.
Indonesia will apply to become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact within the year, according to a minister. The 11 current CPTPP members account for nearly 16% of global GDP, and will need to agree unanimously on any new members. They’ve already agreed for the UK to join, and are now figuring out how to handle parallel requests from China and Taiwan.
Nvidia cuts chip prices in China amid local competition.
US chipmaker Nvidia is facing tough competition in China’s market, with low demand for its products prompting a cut in prices. US export controls prevent the sale of Nvidia’s more advanced chips to China, but the market still made up 17% of Nvidia’s revenues for the last fiscal year.
Germany’s scandal-hit AfD party expelled from EU grouping.
The conservative ‘Identity and Democracy’ group in the European parliament has expelled nine members of Germany’s populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is known for its Euroscepticism and opposition to immigration. The decision comes after an AfD leader said not all members of the Nazi SS unit were war criminals. The AfD has been polling nationally in second place ahead of next month’s European parliamentary elections.
TOP STORY
China launches “punishment” drills around Taiwan
Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te
China has held two days of mock drills surrounding Taiwan as “punishment” for “separatist acts”, after Taiwan inaugurated its new president on Monday.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched the exercise yesterday (Thursday) with a focus on surrounding Taiwan’s main island, but also Taiwan’s smaller islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, closer to China’s coastline.
Interestingly, the drills also targeted Taiwan’s east coast towards Japan, a presumed access point for Taiwan’s allies in any future war. According to Beijing’s statements, the exercises were designed to simulate a full-scale invasion.
Why?
Beijing views Taiwan as a renegade province, based on China’s patchy rule of the island for two centuries until 1895, as well as the 1949 retreat there by defeated nationalist forces after China’s civil war. Beijing also sees Taiwan’s location and Western-alignment as a vulnerability.
So then, why run these drills now?
Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, took office on Monday in the island’s first presidential transition since 2016. He’s stepping up after a stint as VP, and he hails from the same independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as his predecessor and former boss (Tsai). To Beijing, they’re both separatists.
And while Lai used his inauguration speech to signal continuity with his predecessor, he also warned that, “in the face of the many threats and attempts of infiltration from China, we must demonstrate our resolution to defend our nation.”
Interestingly, he delivered that speech against a tumultuous local backdrop: Taiwan’s more China-friendly opposition (the Kuomintang, or KMT) still controls the legislature and is pushing a controversial bill to curtail the president’s powers.
So protests against that bill have now broken out in the streets of Taipei, in scenes that Beijing has previously described as separatist.
So what’s China’s aim here?
President Xi Jinping has placed the “Taiwan question” and “complete reunification” at the centre of his legacy. And as with any pledge, he’ll want to show progress, so he’s gradually upping the ante on Taiwan – a presidential transition in Taipei, with strong rhetoric from Lai, presents an ideal excuse.
In seizing the moment, Xi is seeking to build on precedents he set with drills after US Speaker Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, and US Speaker McCarthy’s 2023 meeting with Tsai. That gets us to 2024, with China now running weekly drills, patrolling Taiwan’s Kinmen islands, and floating spy balloons (remember those?) over Taiwan.
Helpfully, China’s foreign ministry spelled it all out for us yesterday (Thursday), saying “each time ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists make waves, it garners stronger effort from China”. The same day, a senior US general spelled it out another way: it’s “the normalisation of abnormal action”.
Either way, it puts pressure on Taiwan and warns its allies to respect and accept Beijing’s own vision for Taiwan.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It’s hard to know how best to respond to all this. Indeed, that’s kinda the point. But if Xi’s aim is normalisation, then the world’s reactions seem to be, well, pretty normal: the US has described China’s drills as “concerning but expected”, while the EU has said “all parties should exercise restraint”. 🔥🔥
So then, is this all becoming a new kind of ritual, like Mao shelling Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands at the exact same time every other day for 21 years? Or is Xi looking to erode the West’s ability to distinguish a rehearsal from the real thing?
To us, his immediate aim still looks more performative at this stage. And Taiwan is seizing the moment in its own way, “vigorously gathering intelligence” on China’s simulated invasion, while rolling out its own new anti-ship missile batteries.
As for President Lai? With protests on the streets and the PLA’s navy circling offshore, it’s been a heck of a first week on the job.
Also worth noting:
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Taiwan’s new vice-president, Hsiao Bi-khim, served previously as Taiwan’s representative to the US in Washington.
SPECIAL EDITION: MEXICAN ELECTION WITH LUCIANO PASCOE
Mexico is set to elect its first female president, whether Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez…
…and we’ve got all the deets. Our next special edition drops on election day (next Sunday, 2nd of June). It’ll cover this historic vote and many of the issues that’ll be sitting in the new president’s in-tray when she takes the oath of office on October 1st.
Simply refer two friends using your unique link below to get access to our regular special editions!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: The leaders of Korea (Yoon), Japan (Kishida), and China (Li, not Xi) will hold a trilateral summit in Seoul this Sunday for the first time in four years. The talks started in 2008 and were meant to be annual, but have often stumbled due to historical disputes and differences around US-China competition.
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🇷🇸 Serbia: The UN General Assembly has passed a motion to commemorate the 1995 Srebrenica genocide in Bosnia on an annual basis, despite strong opposition from Serbia. Over 60 countries abstained from the resolution, which was led by Germany and Rwanda.
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🇳🇿 New Zealand: According to Reuters, New Zealand’s upcoming defence budget will be 6.6% smaller than the last, despite ongoing struggles around equipment and manpower. Others like Australia and Japan have lifted spending in response to China’s growing presence in the region, and New Zealand’s defence minister has signalled a similar boost could come once a current internal review is complete.
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🇨🇴 Colombia: President Gustavo Petro has ordered his government to open an embassy in Ramallah, the Palestinian Authority’s administrative centre in the West Bank. Petro has been an ardent critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza, describing them as “genocidal”.
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🇰🇪 Kenya: US President Biden has announced his intention to designate Kenya as a major non-NATO ally, acknowledging the growing security ties between the two countries. He made the announcement while hosting Kenya’s president, William Ruto, during Africa’s first state visit to the US in more than 15 years.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue if you’re lucky enough to be in 🇪🇬 Cairo
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Culture: The Egyptian Museum in Cairo, the oldest archaeological museum in the Middle East, is a must-see.
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Eat: Hit up Felfela downtown for the best falafel and rice pudding the city has to offer.
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Walk: Head down the Nile and cross the historic Kasr el Nil Bridge for a stunning view of the city, especially at night.
FRIDAY QUIZ
On this day in 1924, the US Congress passed a law creating the modern US foreign service, which turns 100 today.
1) What act created today's US foreign service? |
2) How many people work in the US foreign service today? |
3) Who was the first US secretary of state? |
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