🌍 China starts work on a fifth Antarctic base

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: Islamabad has placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil. The deal offers new revenue for sanctioned Russia, and respite for Pakistan as it struggles through an economic crisis.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg flew to Kyiv yesterday (Thursday), his first visit since the war began. His show of support comes as Ukraine prepares for a Spring counteroffensive.

3. 🇮🇳 India: A court has rejected an appeal by opposition leader Rahul Gandhi against his defamation conviction, a significant setback in his goal of being reinstated to parliament. Gandhi was sentenced to two years in prison last month for a 2019 comment on the PM’s surname.

4. 🇨🇺 Cuba: Miguel Diaz-Canel has begun a second five-year term as president. Cuba’s first civilian leader post-Castro brothers, he’s pledged to address inflation, corruption and shortages on the island.

5. 🇦🇪 UAE: Italy has lifted its arms sale embargo against the UAE after assessing the country had decreased its military presence in the Yemeni civil war. The embargo was put in place in 2021.

🧊 CHINA | GEOPOLITICS

China’s back to work in Antarctica

Briefly: China is building its fifth research facility in the Antarctic, resuming construction there after a five-year pause. The new base (on Inexpressible Island) is located far from China’s four other stations, maximising its footprint.

China’s not the only power sprinkling research stations across the Antarctic like Salt Bae seasoning a rump. So why all the interest? Well first, it’s China. And second, the new site will include a satellite ground station.

This kind of ‘dual use’ facility can help do other things like collect intel. And it’ll be ideally placed to collect that intel from New Zealand and Australia, two nearby members of the Five Eyes intelligence network.

But world powers show an interest in Antarctica for other reasons, too:

• 📡 It’s one of the world’s clearest points for satellite transmissions

• 🚢 As the ice melts, new shipping (and mining) opportunities open up

• 🏆 And it’s a bit of a trophy for countries seeking ‘great power’ status

Plus of course, there’s plenty of legit scientific research happening down there too, including the project that helped discover the ozone hole in 1985.

Intrigue’s take: Right now, the Antarctic Treaty prohibits any country from militarising the continent or exploiting its natural resources. The US has even inspected China’s site and found nothing of note (beyond a dead penguin!).

But the Treaty becomes modifiable in 2048, and nobody really knows what might happen. That uncertainty drives suspicion. And that suspicion drives manoeuvring.

Also worth noting:

• China currently operates two icebreakers, with a third under construction. Russia operates 37 icebreakers.

• There are 82 stations in Antarctica run by 30 countries. Argentina has the most (13). The largest (the US McMurdo Station) can host 1,000 people.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Roca

🇭🇺 HUNGARY | GEOECONOMICS

Some EU members are banning Ukrainian goods

Briefly: Hungary has added honey and various meats to a list of Ukrainian products that can’t be imported until at least 30 June. The EU has criticised Hungary’s decision and similar measures from Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.

The seeds of all this tension were planted last year when a Russian blockade in the Black Sea led the EU to cut tariffs on Ukrainian grain, to help Ukraine’s economy. But a flood of cheap Ukrainian wheat has since left EU farmers uncompetitive (and angry).

In March, the EU allocated millions to support farmers along its eastern flank, and on Wednesday, officials suggested topping up with another €100M.

Intrigue’s take: Poland and Slovakia are some of Ukraine’s biggest supporters. But they’ve both got elections this year, and a poke in the EU’s eye can be great politics. As for Hungary, its prime minister is no fan of the EU or Ukraine.

But whatever the motivation, this whole issue risks weakening European unity. And that’s good news for Russia; less so for Ukraine.

Also worth noting:

• Russia warned last week that it may stop participating in the Black Sea grain initiative after the next deadline on 18 May, unless the West eliminates certain sanctions.

• Check out today’s Intrigue Outloud to see how fractures among EU members risk undermining Ukraine’s war effort.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Intrigue co-founder Helen is back with a capital-themed crossword, below and online!

📊 CHART OF THE DAY

The Biden Administration made waves last week by proposing new environmental rules designed to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales from 5.8% last year to almost 70% by 2032. Building that many EVs will be one challenge. Public opinion is shaping up to be another.

🗳️ QUIZ TIME!

Test your trade knowledge with our end-of-week quiz!

Answers: 1-a, 2-c, 3-d.

Crossword answers:
Across: 1. Malta 3. Brunei 5. Tashkent 6. Mozambique 7. Nicosia 8. Moldova
Down: 2. Asmara 3. Bhutan 4. Reykjavik 6. Marshall