🌍 China-US tensions loom over Shangri-La Dialogue

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Prosecutors are moving to strip a top Kyrgyz opposition lawmaker of the criminal immunity afforded to members of parliament. He stands accused of fomenting riots and plotting a coup, charges he denies.

2. 🇳🇴 Norway: The US will open its first diplomatic mission north of the Arctic Circle, in the Norwegian city of Tromsoe. NATO will also conduct Arctic military exercises in nearby Finland this week.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Malaysia will join Indonesia in suspending trade talks with the EU over European deforestation regulations that would harm the countries’ lucrative palm oil industry. Indonesia and Malaysia account for 83% of the world’s palm oil production.

4. 🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago: Trinidad has asked the US to amend the terms of an oil exploration licence involving Trinidad and neighbouring Venezuela. As written, the licence would prohibit cash payments to Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, which remains under US sanctions.

5. 🇸🇳 Senegal: At least nine people have been killed after police clashed with supporters of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, who was sentenced to two years in prison for ‘corrupting youth’. Senegalese authorities banned social media on Friday (2 June) in response.

🌏 ASIA-PACIFIC | DEFENCE & SECURITY

China-US rivalry looms large at top Asia summit

Briefly: The annual three day Shangri-La Dialogue wrapped up yesterday (Sunday), after bringing together 600 defence and security delegates from 49 countries at the sprawling Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore.

Each year the summit generates seemingly endless headlines, particularly around US-China competition. And this year was no exception. Highlights included:

• 🇦🇺 Australia's PM urged China to re-open dialogue with the US

• 🇺🇸 The US defence secretary rebuked China for not resuming military talks with the US

• 🇨🇳 China’s defence minister called on the US to decease military deployments near China

• 🇵🇭 A Philippines coast guard rep said there was a disconnect between China’s pro-dialogue words and its actions in the South China Sea

• 🇩🇪 Germany’s defence minister announced Germany will send two warships to the Indo-Pacific in 2024 to help maintain regional security

• 🇮🇩 Indonesia’s defence minister revealed a Russo-Ukraine peace plan focused on demilitarised zones in Ukraine (a proposal quickly dismissed by Ukraine’s defence minister, who said it sounded like a “Russian plan")

Intrigue’s take: There was plenty of disagreement on display in Singapore over the weekend, yet almost everyone seemed to agree on one thing: US-China conflict would be a disaster not just for the two countries, but the entire world.

And so… given everyone agrees, there should be a path for China and the West to de-escalate. The problem is it’s hard to see one right now:

• China’s military build-up and increasing assertiveness have spooked capitals all over, and yet

• When other countries respond with their own military build-up to deter China, Beijing interprets that as aggression, and again expands its military in response

This, dear Intriguer, is a classic security dilemma. And it’s hard to break out of one without dialogue. Hence the many calls for dialogue over the weekend.

Also worth noting:

• China is set to increase defence spending this year by 7.2% to $220B. US defence spending is up 4.2% this year, hitting $773B.

• Some two dozen spy chiefs also met on the sidelines of the summit, including intelligence heads from China, the US, India, Europe, and beyond. The tone was reportedly more direct but more collaborative.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by girlboss

⛏️ CONGO | CRITICAL MINERALS

DRC surpasses Peru as world’s #2 copper exporter

Briefly: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) replaced Peru as the world’s second-biggest exporter of copper last year, in terms of shipment volumes. It’s a notable shift in the copper industry, which has long been dominated by South American countries.

What’s behind this switch in copper rankings?

• 🇵🇪 Peru’s copper production has flatlined since 2016, in part due to political instability there, and

• 🇨🇩 DRC has tapped into its higher-grade ore potential (meaning more metal can be extracted from the same amount of rock), enabling copper exports to double to 2.4 million tons between 2018 and 2022.

Intrigue’s take: Countries generally define a ‘critical mineral’ as something that ticks three key boxes:

• 🏗️ Its supply chain is vulnerable to disruption

• 🔒 It’s essential to economic and national security, and

• 👩‍💻 It plays a key role in energy, defence and other tech

Copper ticks each of these three boxes. It’s particularly key to the energy transition. And that makes it the subject of intense geopolitical interest.

Also worth noting: 

• While Peru is now ranked 3rd and DRC ranked 2nd, Chile remains the world’s top copper exporter.

• Peru’s China-owned Las Bambas mine, one of the biggest copper mines in the world, halted production numerous times last year due to environmental and community protests.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Your weekly roundup of quirky global news:

• A Canadian won the UK’s famous Cooper Hill cheese race despite being unconscious for most of the race.

• A commercial pilot in San Diego was forced to climb through the cockpit window to unlock his plane.

• An AI drone in the US reportedly tried to kill its operators after being told to “destroy the enemy’s air defence systems”. It turns out the story was a theoretical scenario rather than a real one.

• Vending machines in the Japanese town of Ako have been programmed to release their snacks in case of an earthquake.

• Italian authorities are investigating why the water in Venice turned neon green.

🏁 FLAG OF THE DAY

Some flags are subtle in their references to armed struggle and sacrifice; Mozambique chose another route. The banner features an assault rifle with a bayonet (defence), a hoe (agriculture) and an open book (education). Mozambique’s flag is the only UN-recognised flag with a modern firearm.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Thursday’s poll: Do you think Elon Musk's meeting with China's foreign minister was a good idea?

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 👍 Yes, business interests can be a force for good in China-US relations (45%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, Beijing was using him to wedge the US (51%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 G.W.K.S: “Globalisation is generally a good thing for raising human prosperity across the globe. Healing these relationships seems more fruitful than consistent animosity”

• 🖋️ D.L: “I'm not sure the meeting had as much to do with national interests as it did with Musk's interests. China may have had a bigger picture in mind, but I suspect Musk didn't.”