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Hi Intriguer. One way to think about geopolitics is in terms of signals: reading and mis-reading them; guessing and double-guessing them; with your neighbours, allies, adversaries, and the market.
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The US Federal Reserve sent some intriguing signals to the world yesterday, acknowledging for the first time that itโs making progress in tackling inflation. Markets loved that signal, and rallied.
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But our briefing today leads with some decidedly more mixed signals sent from a key economic meeting in Beijing earlier this week. The market response to these signals seems to have been more of a โmehโ.
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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
TODAYโS NEWS
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An EU sweetener. The European Commission has unblocked โฌ10.2B in frozen funds destined for Hungary, just before todayโs EU-wide talks on the future of Ukraine. The gesture looks like a sweetener for Prime Minister Viktor Orbรกn, who has vowed to oppose both EU accession talks and new EU aid for Ukraine.
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Spillover. The ongoing conflict in Gaza could cost nearby Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan 2.3% of their collective GDP, and risks pushing more than 230,000 people there into poverty, according to a UN study. The figure could double if hostilities last another six months.
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Impeachment. The US House has voted to authorise its impeachment inquiry into President Biden for alleged corruption during his tenure as vice president. President Biden says the vote was a โbaseless political stuntโ.
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The chancellorโs new budget.ย Germanyโs coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz has finally agreed to a new budget for 2024, after weeks of turmoil sparked by a court ruling. The new spending bill will cut โฌ12B from the countryโs climate and transformation fund to avoid going over a constitutional debt limit.
TOP STORY
Chinese President Xi Jinping addresses this yearโs Central Economic Work Conference. Credits: Xinhua.
Analysts unimpressed by Chinaโs 2024 economic agenda
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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wrapped up the two-day Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) on Tuesday.
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โCentralโ. โEconomicโ. โWorkโ. โConferenceโ.
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Itโs hard to think of four duller words, and having been in the audience for a CCP work conference previously ourselves, we can confirm they are indeed extremely dull events. But this meeting is consequential, and hereโs why.
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The CEWC is an annual meeting of top officials chaired by Chinaโs president to take stock of the past year and set the economic agenda for the year ahead. But this yearโs CEWC wasnโt like the dozens before it.
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First, it came at a bleak time. China continues to grapple with record-breaking challenges across real estate, youth unemployment, local government debt, and beyond, with implications for the world at large.
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Second, an earlier high-profile economic meeting, the Third Plenum, wasย unexpectedly and inexplicably delayed in recent weeks, adding to a sense of uncertainty around President Xiโs forward plans (a new date is still TBC).
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And so third, with the world eagerly watching this weekโs CEWC for insights into President Xiโs thinking, we were instead surprised to see him ditch the second half of the conference for a state visit to Vietnam.
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What did Xi and his team end up saying about their plans for 2024?
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According to the official readout (๐จ๐ณ), they listed nine priorities:
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At the top (up a place from last year) is โ[creating] aย modern industrial system […] focusing on disruptive and cutting-edge technologiesโ. This really looks like a response to US efforts to limit Chinaโs access to key tech.
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In second place (it was first last year), we have โexpanding domestic demandโ, which comes after recent economic data suggesting both consumer and business confidence are hovering near five-year lows.
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Taking the bronze, thereโs โdeepening reforms in key areasโ, listing a bunch of items that seem pitched both at locals (โtaxation system reformโ) and foreigners (โrights protectionโ).
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And in fourth, thereโs โopening up to the outside worldโ, which implicitly accepts that international sentiment towards China has turned. It calls for everything from an โInvest in Chinaโ brand to the removal of hurdles for foreigners to โcome to China for business, study, and tourismโ.
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The other five focus on addressing risks (like in real estate), plus progressing various bits of work across rural, urban, environmental, and livelihood issues.
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Overall, the document strikes a tone of methodical confidence. It sums up Chinaโs economic position by noting that โfavourable conditions outweigh unfavourable factorsโ.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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So, what should we make of all this?
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First, anyone hoping for a clear change in direction to address Chinaโs challenges will probably be disappointed. Xiโs list seeks to stabilise the economy, more than stimulate it. And thereโs no indication he plans to ease any of the recent national security moves that have spooked foreign investors.
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Then, second, what does that mean for Chinaโs economy in 2024? Given Xi is staking his legitimacy and legacy on restoring Chinese greatness, a Western ambassador to Beijing recently described Chinaโs economic outlook to us like this: โone way or another, Xi will find a way to keep muddling throughโ.
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Thatโs reflected in tepid market expectations for ~4.5% growth next year.
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Also worth noting:
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Markets didnโt love this weekโs CEWC, with a key local stock index seemingly shrugging in response.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฆ๐ฒ Armenia: Azerbaijan and Armenia swapped prisoners-of-war at their border yesterday (Wednesday), stabilising ties after Azerbaijan seized an ethnic Armenian enclave in September. There are reports theyโre also discussing the withdrawal of troops from their shared border.
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๐ฉ๐ชย Germany: Prosecutors have formally charged 27 people (including a self-styled prince) in connection with last yearโs alleged plot to topple the government in Berlin. Authorities say the group tried to contact Russian officials in 2022 to win Moscowโs support for the plan.
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๐ฎ๐ณย India: In a major breach, a man has jumped from the visitors’ gallery into Indiaโs parliament, setting off a smoke-can while shouting unknown slogans. The incident took place in Indiaโs new, high-security parliament, which Prime Minister Modi inaugurated in May.ย
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๐ป๐จย St Vincent: The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela are due to meet at an airport on the island of St Vincent today, as regional players push the two to defuse a long-standing territorial dispute. The prime ministers of Barbados, Dominica, and Trinidad & Tobago will also attend.
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๐จ๐ฉย DRC: A US-brokered ceasefire between the M23 rebel group and DRC troops kicked in on Tuesday ahead of elections due next week. M23 has welcomed the de-escalation in a conflict thatโs displaced at least a million people this year.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what the world googled yesterday
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๐ป๐ณ Film fans in Vietnam looked for โChau Hai Myโ, the famed Hong Kong actor and singer who died of illness in Beijing this week, aged 57.
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๐ณ๐ด Norwegians googled โVM hรฅndball kvinnerโ (Women’s Handball World Cup), as their team faces off against either Denmark or Montenegro in the semi-finals tomorrow.
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๐ธ๐ฆ And folks in Saudi Arabia searched for โู ุนุฑุถ ุฌุฏุฉ ุงูุฏููู ูููุชุงุจโ (Jeddah International Book Fair), which wraps up this weekend and features a French pavilion for the first time.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A Kyoto-based organisation that promotes the use of kanji (certain Chinese characters used in Japanese) has announced that the character for โtaxโ is the 2023 kanji of the year. The kanji for โhotโ and โwarโ came in second and third, summing up whatโs been a rough year for folks around the globe.ย
DAILY POLL
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Do you think foreign policy should be taught in high schools? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think COP28 was a success?
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Yes, as successful as it could have been (23%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ No, the delegates didnโt go far enough (18%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐ Are these conferences ever successful? (55%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ S.N: โWe’re talking and we’re at least “looking” in the same direction. Now we just have to identify the point on the horizon and get there. โHow fast?โ will be determined by individual parties and conviction toward leading change.โ
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๐ D.C.W: โA โfeel goodโ agreement. If itโs in some countriesโ best interests to not follow the agreement, they wonโt.โ
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โ๏ธ M.D: โRenewable energy sources are not reliable enough to warrant a phase out of fossil fuels. Natural disasters and man-made disasters can too easily cripple renewable sources. We cannot phase out fossil fuels without a much more robust renewable infrastructure.โ