🌍 China’s naval base in Cambodia?

Hi there Intriguer. Diplomacy is full of intrigue and high-stakes theatrics, but sometimes it's as simple as showing up each day on social media to connect through origami. Japan’s Consul-General in Seattle Hisao Inagaki continues to unleash his ‘crane of the day’ without fail – the guy is currently on day 1069!

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🎖️ A controversial naval base in Cambodia.

• 🔥 A regional look at wildfires in Europe and North Africa.

• ➕ Plus: An unexpected Roman tomb, how the papers are covering the upcoming Russia-Africa summit, and why Chileans are googling ‘Cecilia’.

1. 🇨🇳 China: Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been replaced by his predecessor Wang Yi after a month of unexplained absence. Beijing hasn’t given a reason, though the scrubbing of Qin‘s record from government websites suggests he may be under investigation.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: Lawmakers voted to raise the age of conscription from 27 to 30, expanding the number of men liable to join Russia’s military for one year of compulsory service. Over 145,000 Russian men were drafted earlier this year.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: A Taliban delegation visited Indonesia earlier this month seeking closer economic ties with the world’s most populous Muslim nation. Afghanistan is in the midst of a prolonged economic crisis.

4. 🇪🇨 Ecuador: Quito has announced a state of emergency in three provinces following the deadly shooting of a mayor. The motive remains unclear, but gang-related homicides have spiked in the past five years.

5. 🇾🇪 Yemen: The UN has begun extracting a million barrels of oil from an old tanker off Yemen’s coast. UN officials have warned for years of the risks posed by the vessel, which could leak four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska.

🎖️ Cambodia | Defence & security

A controversial naval base takes shape in Cambodia

Construction of naval infrastructure at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia is nearly complete, according to satellite imagery from US-based Blacksky.

Beijing and Phnom Penh acknowledge China has helped fund and build expansions on the base, but they deny China will have access. Cambodia even points out that hosting a foreign base would breach its constitution.

But Western intelligence has long claimed otherwise, noting Ream’s new pier is nearly identical to the one at China’s base in Djibouti. And both piers are long enough to berth China’s aircraft carriers (Cambodia has no such assets).

It’s easy to guess why China would be interested in Ream. It’d serve as:

1. ⛽ A place for ships to refuel and resupply, enabling China’s navy to venture farther afield

2. 💣 A safe haven in the event of conflict with the US, as Washington might hesitate to target Chinese assets in a third country, and

3. 🚢 A springboard to control critical chokepoints, like the nearby Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.

That last point is key: 40% of global trade (including 60% of China’s oil supply) goes through Malacca. So in the event of conflict, whoever controls the Strait (just 2.8km wide at its narrowest point) would have a leg-up.

Intrigue's take: It’s been interesting to see how much intel the West has been willing to share publicly in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Russia repeatedly denied it was going to invade. And then it did.

US intel has likewise been pretty forward-leaning on the Ream base. But China has repeatedly denied the US accusations. So the world will be watching Ream berthing schedules with interest.

Also worth noting:

• US Defense Secretary Austin arrives today (Wednesday) in Papua New Guinea, which just granted the US access to six military sites.

• China initially deflected claims it was establishing its first overseas base in Djibouti (which then opened in 2017). Beijing routinely highlights Washington’s large network of military bases.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The upcoming Russia-Africa Summit

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🔥 Mediterranean | Climate

The Mediterranean is on fire

This year’s record-setting heatwave (aptly named Cerberus after the infernal multi-headed hound) has reduced large areas of southern Europe and North Africa to kindling.

And now blazes are raging (with lives lost) across the region:

• 🇩🇿 Thousands of soldiers have been deployed around Algeria to tame the country’s 97 wildfires

• 🇬🇷 Authorities in Greece have carried out the country’s biggest-ever evacuation after 62 new wildfires erupted there just on Saturday (the hottest day of the summer so far), and

• 🇮🇹 Italian authorities have had to shut airports and cancel flights in Palermo and Catania, cutting off Sicily’s two main air links.

Fires are also burning in France, Spain, Turkey, Croatia, and basically any other Mediterranean country you can think of.

Intrigue’s take: Wildfires are a common phenomenon in the Mediterranean, but the UN’s latest scientific review foreshadowed climate change’s exacerbating role there.

And there’s a regional piece at play, too: the Union for the Mediterranean was set up precisely to deepen disaster relief cooperation across the Mediterranean. It’s apparently struggled for attention lately, but something tells us that’ll change after this summer.

Also worth noting:

• The Mediterranean is warming up 20% faster than the rest of the world. It’s now at its hottest in recorded history.

• Earlier this year, Algerian authorities acquired six water-bombing aircraft, leased several others, and started constructing landing strips to prepare for wildfire season.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world googled on Tuesday 25 July:

• 🇨🇱 Chileans looked up their legendary singer-songwriter ‘Cecilia, la incomparable’ after learning of her passing.

• Our 🇧🇷 Brazilian friends were busy googling ‘Nova Zelândia x Filipinas’ (New Zealand x Philippines), as the Philippines scored their first ever FIFA Women’s World Cup win against the tournament’s co-hosts.

• 🇭🇰 Hong Kong residents looked up the latest news on ‘秦刚’ (Qin Gang), China’s missing foreign minister who’s just been replaced.

🗳️ Poll time!

📸 Photo of the day

Archaeologists in northern Gaza have unearthed a 2,000-year-old Roman cemetery featuring at least 125 tombs and two sarcophagi encased in lead. Construction workers first made the discovery by chance last year, and experts say the site was used to bury top officials in the Roman province of Judaea.

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is the most important factor to spur private investment?

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 💸 Tax breaks (22%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👨‍⚖️ Independent courts (9%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📖 Technical assistance (3%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📉 Opening up markets (18%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ✂️ Slashing red tape (33%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎓 Boosting local skills (13%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ C.B: “Private investment is a long-game that has more to do with the perceived stability and viability of the nation than with short-term carrots like tax breaks.”

• ✂️ G.J: “For small business owners, navigating the barrage of senseless local, provincial, and national regulations is far too cumbersome.”

• 👨‍⚖️ L.L: “Without an independent judiciary no foreign company can proceed with confidence.”