๐ŸŒ China’s naval base in Cambodia?


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Todayโ€™s newsletter supported by:

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Hi there Intriguer.ย Diplomacy is full of intrigue and high-stakes theatrics, but sometimes it’s as simple as showing up each day on social media to connect through origami. Japanโ€™s Consul-General in Seattle Hisao Inagaki continues to unleash his โ€˜crane of the dayโ€™ without fail – the guy is currently on day 1069!

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Todayโ€™s briefing is a 4 min read:

  • ๐ŸŽ–๏ธ A controversial naval base in Cambodia.

  • ๐Ÿ”ฅ A regional look at wildfires in Europe and North Africa.

  • โž• Plus: An unexpected Roman tomb, how the papers are covering the upcoming Russia-Africa summit, and why Chileans are googling โ€˜Ceciliaโ€™.

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โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds

  1. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณย China: Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been replaced by his predecessor Wang Yi after a month of unexplained absence. Beijing hasnโ€™t given a reason, though the scrubbing of Qinโ€˜s record from government websites suggests he may be under investigation.

  2. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บย Russia: Lawmakers voted to raise the age of conscription from 27 to 30, expanding the number of men liable to join Russiaโ€™s military for one year of compulsory service. Over 145,000 Russian men were drafted earlier this year.

  3. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉย Indonesia: A Taliban delegation visited Indonesia earlier this month seeking closer economic ties with the worldโ€™s most populous Muslim nation. Afghanistan is in the midst of a prolonged economic crisis.

  4. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จย Ecuador: Quito has announced a state of emergency in three provinces following the deadly shooting of a mayor. The motive remains unclear, but gang-related homicides have spiked in the past five years.

  5. ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชย Yemen: The UN has begun extracting a million barrels of oil from an old tanker off Yemenโ€™s coast. UN officials have warned for years of the risks posed by the vessel, which could leak four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska.

๐ŸŽ–๏ธ Cambodia | Defence & security

A controversial naval base takes shape in Cambodia

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Construction of naval infrastructure at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia is nearly complete, according to satellite imagery from US-based Blacksky.

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Beijing and Phnom Penh acknowledge China has helped fund and build expansions on the base, but they deny China will have access. Cambodia even points out that hosting a foreign base would breach its constitution.

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But Western intelligence has long claimed otherwise, noting Reamโ€™s new pier is nearly identical to the one at Chinaโ€™s base in Djibouti. And both piers are long enough to berth Chinaโ€™s aircraft carriers (Cambodia has no such assets).

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Itโ€™s easy to guess why China would be interested in Ream. Itโ€™d serve as:

  1. โ›ฝ A place for ships to refuel and resupply, enabling Chinaโ€™s navy to venture farther afield

  2. ๐Ÿ’ฃ A safe haven in the event of conflict with the US, as Washington might hesitate to target Chinese assets in a third country, and

  3. ๐Ÿšข A springboard to control critical chokepoints, like the nearby Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.

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That last point is key: 40% of global trade (including 60% of Chinaโ€™s oil supply) goes through Malacca. So in the event of conflict, whoever controls the Strait (just 2.8km wide at its narrowest point) would have a leg-up.

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Intrigue’s take: Itโ€™s been interesting to see how much intel the West has been willing to share publicly in the context of Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine: Russia repeatedly denied it was going to invade. And then it did.

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US intel has likewise been pretty forward-leaning on the Ream base. But China has repeatedly denied the US accusations. So the world will be watching Ream berthing schedules with interest.

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Also worth noting:

  • US Defense Secretary Austin arrives today (Wednesday) in Papua New Guinea, which just granted the US access to six military sites.

  • China initially deflected claims it was establishing its first overseas base in Djibouti (which then opened in 2017). Beijing routinely highlights Washingtonโ€™s large network of military bases.

๐Ÿ“ฐ How newspapers coveredโ€ฆ

The upcoming Russia-Africa Summit

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

โ€œKremlin accuses West of trying to sabotage its showcase Russia-Africa summitโ€

New York, US

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โ€œRussia wants allies, so itโ€™s hosting an Africa summit. Food security and Wagner group top the agendaโ€

Johannesburg, South Africa

โ€œAccess denied โ€” Daily Maverick barred from Russia-Africa Summit after journalist accreditation revokedโ€

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Todayโ€™s newsletter is supported by: Acclimate

Get plugged into the energy transition

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We cover what matters in climate tech, business, and policy. Delivered twice per week, for free.

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๐Ÿ”ฅ Mediterranean | Climate

The Mediterranean is on fire

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This yearโ€™s record-setting heatwave (aptly named Cerberus after the infernal multi-headed hound) has reduced large areas of southern Europe and North Africa to kindling.

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And now blazes are raging (with lives lost) across the region:

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Thousands of soldiers have been deployed around Algeria to tame the countryโ€™s 97 wildfires

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Authorities in Greece have carried out the countryโ€™s biggest-ever evacuation after 62 new wildfires erupted there just on Saturday (the hottest day of the summer so far), and

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italian authorities have had to shut airports and cancel flights in Palermo and Catania, cutting off Sicilyโ€™s two main air links.

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Fires are also burning in France, Spain, Turkey, Croatia, and basically any other Mediterranean country you can think of.

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Intrigueโ€™s take: Wildfires are a common phenomenon in the Mediterranean, but the UNโ€™s latest scientific review foreshadowed climate changeโ€™s exacerbating role there.

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And thereโ€™s a regional piece at play, too: the Union for the Mediterranean was set up precisely to deepen disaster relief cooperation across the Mediterranean. Itโ€™s apparently struggled for attention lately, but something tells us thatโ€™ll change after this summer.

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Also worth noting:

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โž• Extra Intrigue

Hereโ€™s what people around the world googled on Tuesday 25 July:

  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chileans looked up their legendary singer-songwriter โ€˜Cecilia, la incomparableโ€™ after learning of her passing.

  • Our ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทย Brazilian friends were busy googling โ€˜Nova Zelรขndia x Filipinasโ€™ (New Zealand x Philippines), as the Philippines scored their first ever FIFA Womenโ€™s World Cup win against the tournamentโ€™s co-hosts.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong residents looked up the latest news on โ€˜็งฆๅˆšโ€™ (Qin Gang), Chinaโ€™s missing foreign minister whoโ€™s just been replaced.

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๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ Poll time!

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What do you think about Israel’s recent judicial reform limiting the powers of the Supreme Court?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

๐Ÿ“ธ Photo of the day

An archaeologist cleans a lead sarcophagus at an excavation site in Gaza. Credits: Rizek Abdeljawad

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Archaeologists in northern Gaza have unearthed a 2,000-year-old Roman cemetery featuring at least 125 tombs and two sarcophagi encased in lead. Construction workers first made the discovery by chance last year, and experts say the site was used to bury top officials in the Roman province of Judaea.

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Yesterdayโ€™s poll: What do you think is the most important factor to spur private investment?

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ’ธ Tax breaks (22%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‘จโ€โš–๏ธ Independent courts (9%)

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โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ“– Technical assistance (3%)

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ“‰ Opening up markets (18%)

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๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ โœ‚๏ธ Slashing red tape (33%)

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐ŸŽ“ Boosting local skills (13%)

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โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ โœ๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)

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Your two cents:

  • โœ๏ธ C.B: โ€œPrivate investment is a long-game that has more to do with the perceived stability and viability of the nation than with short-term carrots like tax breaks.โ€

  • โœ‚๏ธ G.J: โ€œFor small business owners, navigating the barrage of senseless local, provincial, and national regulations is far too cumbersome.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ‘จโ€โš–๏ธ L.L: โ€œWithout an independent judiciary no foreign company can proceed with confidence.โ€