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Todayโs newsletter supported by: |
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Hi there Intriguer.ย Diplomacy is full of intrigue and high-stakes theatrics, but sometimes it’s as simple as showing up each day on social media to connect through origami. Japanโs Consul-General in Seattle Hisao Inagaki continues to unleash his โcrane of the dayโ without fail – the guy is currently on day 1069!
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Todayโs briefing is a 4 min read:
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๐๏ธ A controversial naval base in Cambodia.
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๐ฅ A regional look at wildfires in Europe and North Africa.
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โ Plus: An unexpected Roman tomb, how the papers are covering the upcoming Russia-Africa summit, and why Chileans are googling โCeciliaโ.
โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds
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๐จ๐ณย China: Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been replaced by his predecessor Wang Yi after a month of unexplained absence. Beijing hasnโt given a reason, though the scrubbing of Qinโs record from government websites suggests he may be under investigation.
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๐ท๐บย Russia: Lawmakers voted to raise the age of conscription from 27 to 30, expanding the number of men liable to join Russiaโs military for one year of compulsory service. Over 145,000 Russian men were drafted earlier this year.
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๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: A Taliban delegation visited Indonesia earlier this month seeking closer economic ties with the worldโs most populous Muslim nation. Afghanistan is in the midst of a prolonged economic crisis.
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๐ช๐จย Ecuador: Quito has announced a state of emergency in three provinces following the deadly shooting of a mayor. The motive remains unclear, but gang-related homicides have spiked in the past five years.
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๐พ๐ชย Yemen: The UN has begun extracting a million barrels of oil from an old tanker off Yemenโs coast. UN officials have warned for years of the risks posed by the vessel, which could leak four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska.
๐๏ธ Cambodia | Defence & security
A controversial naval base takes shape in Cambodia
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Construction of naval infrastructure at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia is nearly complete, according to satellite imagery from US-based Blacksky.
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Beijing and Phnom Penh acknowledge China has helped fund and build expansions on the base, but they deny China will have access. Cambodia even points out that hosting a foreign base would breach its constitution.
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But Western intelligence has long claimed otherwise, noting Reamโs new pier is nearly identical to the one at Chinaโs base in Djibouti. And both piers are long enough to berth Chinaโs aircraft carriers (Cambodia has no such assets).
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Itโs easy to guess why China would be interested in Ream. Itโd serve as:
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โฝ A place for ships to refuel and resupply, enabling Chinaโs navy to venture farther afield
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๐ฃ A safe haven in the event of conflict with the US, as Washington might hesitate to target Chinese assets in a third country, and
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๐ข A springboard to control critical chokepoints, like the nearby Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.
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That last point is key: 40% of global trade (including 60% of Chinaโs oil supply) goes through Malacca. So in the event of conflict, whoever controls the Strait (just 2.8km wide at its narrowest point) would have a leg-up.
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Intrigue’s take: Itโs been interesting to see how much intel the West has been willing to share publicly in the context of Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine: Russia repeatedly denied it was going to invade. And then it did.
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US intel has likewise been pretty forward-leaning on the Ream base. But China has repeatedly denied the US accusations. So the world will be watching Ream berthing schedules with interest.
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Also worth noting:
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US Defense Secretary Austin arrives today (Wednesday) in Papua New Guinea, which just granted the US access to six military sites.
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China initially deflected claims it was establishing its first overseas base in Djibouti (which then opened in 2017). Beijing routinely highlights Washingtonโs large network of military bases.
๐ฐ How newspapers coveredโฆ
The upcoming Russia-Africa Summit
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
โKremlin accuses West of trying to sabotage its showcase Russia-Africa summitโ |
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โRussia wants allies, so itโs hosting an Africa summit. Food security and Wagner group top the agendaโ |
Johannesburg, South Africa |
โAccess denied โ Daily Maverick barred from Russia-Africa Summit after journalist accreditation revokedโ |
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Todayโs newsletter is supported by: Acclimate
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We cover what matters in climate tech, business, and policy. Delivered twice per week, for free.
๐ฅ Mediterranean | Climate
The Mediterranean is on fire
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This yearโs record-setting heatwave (aptly named Cerberus after the infernal multi-headed hound) has reduced large areas of southern Europe and North Africa to kindling.
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And now blazes are raging (with lives lost) across the region:
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๐ฉ๐ฟ Thousands of soldiers have been deployed around Algeria to tame the countryโs 97 wildfires
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๐ฌ๐ท Authorities in Greece have carried out the countryโs biggest-ever evacuation after 62 new wildfires erupted there just on Saturday (the hottest day of the summer so far), and
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๐ฎ๐น Italian authorities have had to shut airports and cancel flights in Palermo and Catania, cutting off Sicilyโs two main air links.
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Fires are also burning in France, Spain, Turkey, Croatia, and basically any other Mediterranean country you can think of.
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Intrigueโs take: Wildfires are a common phenomenon in the Mediterranean, but the UNโs latest scientific review foreshadowed climate changeโs exacerbating role there.
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And thereโs a regional piece at play, too: the Union for the Mediterranean was set up precisely to deepen disaster relief cooperation across the Mediterranean. Itโs apparently struggled for attention lately, but something tells us thatโll change after this summer.
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Also worth noting:
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The Mediterranean is warming up 20% faster than the rest of the world. Itโs now at its hottest in recorded history.
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Earlier this year, Algerian authorities acquired six water-bombing aircraft, leased several others, and started constructing landing strips to prepare for wildfire season.
โ Extra Intrigue
Hereโs what people around the world googled on Tuesday 25 July:
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๐จ๐ฑ Chileans looked up their legendary singer-songwriter โCecilia, la incomparableโ after learning of her passing.
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Our ๐ง๐ทย Brazilian friends were busy googling โNova Zelรขndia x Filipinasโ (New Zealand x Philippines), as the Philippines scored their first ever FIFA Womenโs World Cup win against the tournamentโs co-hosts.
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๐ญ๐ฐ Hong Kong residents looked up the latest news on โ็งฆๅโ (Qin Gang), Chinaโs missing foreign minister whoโs just been replaced.
๐ณ๏ธ Poll time!
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What do you think about Israel’s recent judicial reform limiting the powers of the Supreme Court? |
๐ธ Photo of the day
An archaeologist cleans a lead sarcophagus at an excavation site in Gaza. Credits: Rizek Abdeljawad
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Archaeologists in northern Gaza have unearthed a 2,000-year-old Roman cemetery featuring at least 125 tombs and two sarcophagi encased in lead. Construction workers first made the discovery by chance last year, and experts say the site was used to bury top officials in the Roman province of Judaea.
Yesterdayโs poll: What do you think is the most important factor to spur private investment?
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ธ Tax breaks (22%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐จโโ๏ธ Independent courts (9%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Technical assistance (3%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Opening up markets (18%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ โ๏ธ Slashing red tape (33%)
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Boosting local skills (13%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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โ๏ธ C.B: โPrivate investment is a long-game that has more to do with the perceived stability and viability of the nation than with short-term carrots like tax breaks.โ
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โ๏ธ G.J: โFor small business owners, navigating the barrage of senseless local, provincial, and national regulations is far too cumbersome.โ
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๐จโโ๏ธ L.L: โWithout an independent judiciary no foreign company can proceed with confidence.โ