Plus: Art of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ China’s new social credit rules |
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ Art of the day |
Hi Intriguer. During my time in China, two issues consumed my work hours more than any others — the South China Sea and the Social Credit System. (I can’t tell you how many hours of my life I lost typing out both in full thanks to their identical acronyms, but you’re busy people and this is no place for the airing of petty grammatical grievances.)
China’s social credit system is a confusing beast. Headlines in western papers circa 2018/19 overused the word Orwellian when describing it, while the Chinese academics, bureaucrats, and ordinary Chinese people I talked to didn’t know much about it all, or perhaps weren’t willing to tell a foreign diplomat what they knew.
While events seem to have overtaken the world’s interest in China’s ambitious social engineering project, the government announced new social credit guidelines on Monday, so we’re going to dive in and see what it’s all about in today’s top story.
Tariffs due for Trump’s liberation day.
The US president is set to announce wide-ranging new tariffs today (4pm Wed DC time), after warning of reciprocal levies on countries that tax US goods. His temporary reprieve for the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada is also due to expire today. The looming deadline has prompted Israel to remove its remaining tariffs on US goods.
Judge defies Musk to win Wisconsin ballot.
Susan Crawford has won a pivotal seat on Wisconsin’s top court, defeating a rival endorsed by Elon Musk and backed by a record $25M war-chest. The race attracted international attention as it was dubbed an early referendum on Musk and Trump 2.0.
Israel to expand Gaza buffer.
Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced plans to clear Hamas infrastructure and incorporate more of Gaza into a border security zone, displacing more Gazans.
Xi shuffles Politburo in unprecedented move.
China’s president has abruptly swapped the roles of two elite Politburo members — the heads of the Party’s personnel and propaganda departments. Speculation around the why includes to potentially prevent either official amassing too much influence.
SignalGate continues?
Trump’s national security advisor (Waltz) is in hot water again after it emerged members of his team have conducted government business on Gmail accounts.
TOP STORY
If the term ‘social credit scheme’ conjures up images of Bryce Dallas Howard having a full-blown breakdown in a pastel-coloured frock, well phew — it’s not just us.
And as we’ll see below… maybe we’re not too far off the mark?
‘Social credit scheme’ is the term China uses for a national scoring system it just updated and expanded with 23 new guidelines. If that all sounds confusing or wild, it’s because it’s arguably both.
The idea started floating around Communist Party circles as early as 2002, but it looked real from 2014 — that’s when Beijing launched a six-year plan for a system “rewarding trustworthiness and punishing untrustworthiness”.
It shares some parallels with Western ‘nudge theory’, which focuses more on small, non-coercive changes to the way we present choices to help folks make better decisions: display those healthy sunflower seeds at eye-level, and folks might ditch the Cheetos.
But there ain’t no party like the Communist Party, which gave the concept its own spin then dialled it all the way up to 11, using millions of carrots (like preferential treatment and lower interest rates) plus sticks (like fines and travel restrictions) to shape society.
And to do that, it hoovers up two sources of data:
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Financial — think credit, payment, and tax history (like a US credit score), plus…
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Social — think legal infractions, online activity, and even travel etiquette!
Implementation has been a little wild: there’s no unified system, but rather a constellation of different local-driven pilot initiatives:
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Shanghai police moved to add dog owner offences in 2017
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Beijing added bad public transit etiquette in 2019, and
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Liaoning province explored ways to reward blood donation in 2022.
But these latest updates aim to drive a single, more unified national system.
So… why all the hassle?
First, there’s a basic business angle: as China opened up its economy, it wanted a Western-style financial credit scoring system to facilitate the lending and investment needed to drive economic growth and poverty alleviation.
Second, there’s a basic bureaucratic angle: as China grew, it wanted better ways to share and track data across agencies to make better decisions and drive efficiencies.
But third, there’s a clear ideological angle, too: this journey started under Xi Jinping, who moved quickly to centralise control, emphasise ideology, and prioritise stability. His social credit scheme helps him do all three.
As for the people in the People’s Republic?
State outlets cite approval ratings for the scheme at over 80%. But there’s interesting research out of Stanford suggesting when folks get looped into the system’s potential for digital surveillance and repression (not highlighted by state outlets), support drops.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Science fiction at its best helps us extrapolate today into tomorrow:
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The Stand did it with a lab-leak
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Elysium did it with inequality
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Children of Men did it with fertility
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Starship Troopers did it with militarism, and
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Red Mars did it with space travel.
The pastel frock series we cited up top (Black Mirror) is another classic — it opens most episodes exploring the wonder of some extrapolated solution, including this particular episode (Nosedive) which features something broadly similar to China’s social credit scheme: everything seems pleasant, safe, and prosperous.
But then the script’s inevitable ‘inciting incident’ hits around the 10% mark, with a succession of innocent mishaps, mistakes, and misunderstandings that nudge poor Bryce under the steamroller of what’s rapidly revealed as an unforgiving system.
And that’s the thing to keep in mind here: the best science fiction plays not in the moral black and white, but in the grey. We all yearn for low crime, low waste, and low-people-putting-their-feet-on-seats societies. But if we lose the nuance that makes us human, we’re all an inciting incident away from becoming the bug rather than the windshield.
Oh, and speaking of grey areas, it’s easy to paint China as an uber-advanced authoritarian competitor offering a compelling alternative to the international order many grew up in. But this credit system’s mess of red tape, lax planning, and ideological vagaries are also a reminder that yep, the Party puts its pants on one leg at a time too.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Xi Jinping has argued regional rivals China and India should work more closely together in what he’s dubbed a "Dragon-Elephant tango" on their 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. The two neighbours have gradually managed to stabilise ties since a 2020 border clash left dozens of soldiers dead.
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🇫🇮 Finland: Following the lead of fellow Russia-adjacent NATO members Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Finland has now announced it’s exiting the Ottawa Convention against anti-personnel landmines. Like the others, the Finns have experienced occupation by Russia, which already uses mines in Ukraine.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: A massive fireball from a burst Petronas gas pipeline outside Kuala Lumpur has injured 145 people and damaged 190 houses. Authorities haven’t yet flagged a cause, though initial focus is on the possibility of what’s known as a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: A recovering Pope Francis has authorised three new saints, including a Venezuelan sister known for her work with the poor, a Papua New Guinean lay preacher executed during WWII, and an Armenian archbishop executed under the Ottoman Empire. It’s making headlines in each country.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: There are local reports Turkey is moving to take control of Syria’s Tiyas air base, arguing it’s to deter Israeli airstrikes and hit ISIS operations. Syria and Turkey have been negotiating a defence pact since December that’d potentially see Turkey fill the local void left by Russia and Iran.
INTRIGUE LIVE!
Intrigue is hosting an event in DC Friday, 11 April, at 5.30pm 👀
A close friend of Intrigue, best-selling author, and fellow ex-diplomat Dmitry Grozoubinski will be in Washington next week presenting his hit book Why Politicians Lie About Trade. We’ve snagged a few hours with him for a cocktail hour and fireside chat next Friday, April 11, from 5.30-7.30pm. Attendance is capped at 30, so tickets will go fast — register your interest now!
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigue jobs board 💼
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Gaeltacht Correspondent @ Journal.ie in Ireland
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AI, Emerging Tech Policy @ Senate Foreign Relations Committee in DC
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Liaison Officer @ NATO Innovation Fund in Brussels
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Marketing Manager @ Oliver Wyman in Singapore
ART OF THE DAY
Credits: Christie’s.
If you look around, there might be wonders you never knew were there — at least, that’s what happened to a Norwegian hospital which had the above oil-canvas painting hanging on its walls for more than half a century without realising it was a masterpiece by India’s modernist legend, M.F. Husain.
The epic work (spanning 4.2m or 14ft) just sold for a record $13.8M at auction in New York. Check your walls, Intriguers.
DAILY POLL
Do you ever wish your country implemented a version of China's social credit system? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think is the safest place to stash your wealth right now?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 Bonds (16%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 Stocks (11%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👑 Gold (25%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🏡 Real Estate (29%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ₿ Crypto (2%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛏️ Under the mattress (14%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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🏡 D.D: “Land is finite and has productive uses. Just make sure to pick a spot in a region/city that's growing, not one that's slumping.”
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👑 M.M: “Follow the lead of the central banks.”
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✍️ P.S: “Invest in people, they are the future.”
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🏡 E.K.H: “Even gold really only has value because we all agree it does. But shelter is at the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy — everyone actually needs a roof over their head, and always will.”
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