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Hi Intriguer. As we reach more and more inboxes, the amount of tips, leads and on-the-ground anecdotes we get sent is increasing as well. And we love it.
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Of course, we canโt publish everything we hear, but your observations really help us add nuance and colour to our analysis of world events. Please keep them coming!
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Todayโs top story is about Chinaโs biggest political event – the Two Sessions (known as Lianghui – ไธคไผ). I had the good/mis fortune to attend a similar meeting in Shanghai back in 2017. While the pageantry is something to behold, I canโt recommend silently sitting through four hours of Chinese officials carefully reading aloud each word of a 200-page work report.
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Luckily for you, weโve summarised everything you need to know so far about the (still ongoing) Two Sessions – the only question is what youโll do with the 3 hours and 57 minutes weโve saved you.
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– John Fowler, Co-Founder
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
TODAYโS NEWS
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Super Tuesday results.ย As expected, Joe Biden and Donald Trump dominated their respective party primaries in yesterdayโs โSuper Tuesdayโ vote, setting them on course to clinch their nomination in the coming weeks. Notwithstanding Nikki Haleyโs surprise win over Trump in Vermont, this is looking like the least competitive US primary season in decades.
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US legislators introduce TikTok bill.ย Lawmakers have introduced a bill that bans app stores from distributing the popular short video app unless ByteDance, TikTokโs China-based parent company, divests control. TikTok has criticised the move on free speech grounds, while also noting the platformโs role in helping US small businesses grow. Previous congressional attempts to ban the app have failed partly due to free speech concerns, which this new bill seeks to address.
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Haiti PM lands in Puerto Rico. Prime Minister Ariel Henry has had to land in Puerto Rico after the main airport in Haiti was attacked by armed gangs seeking to block his return. Haitiโs crisis has spiked in the last few days, with authorities announcing a state of emergency, neighbouring Dominican Republic closing its airspace, and gangs warning of a โcivil war that will lead to genocideโ if Henry doesnโt resign.
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Bitcoin hits new high. Bitcoin briefly touched the $69,210 mark yesterday, an all-time high for the crypto-currency, before quickly tumbling 8%. The price of Bitcoin has already climbed 45% this year, as supply tightens and new Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) start trading, but some now expect sharp downward corrections. Gold also reached an all-time high on Tuesday.
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Venezuela sets election date. The countryโs electoral authorities have announced the presidential election will take place on 28 July, ending months of speculation. President Nicolรกs Maduro, who has retained a tight grip on power for over a decade, will presumably seek re-election. Opposition figure Marรญa Corina Machado comfortably won her primary process last year but authorities have banned her from running due to allegations of financial misconduct (which she maintains are politically motivated).
TOP STORY
Two Sessions, five quotes
The Two Sessions kick off in the Great Hall of the People. Credits: Jade Gao/AFP/Getty Images.
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Thousands of Communist Party members have descended on Beijing for Chinaโs annual โTwo Sessionsโ political process this week.ย The โtwo sessionsโ refer to the parallel meetings of two political bodies:ย
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The National Peopleโs Congress (NPC), which is Chinaโs 3,000-strong rubberstamp parliament, and
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The Chinese Peopleโs Political Consultative Conference, an advisory bodyย which holds even less sway than the NPC
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These meetings are more choreographed than a 1980s workout video. But as China grapples with a messy inbox (pervasive real-estate crisis, persistent deflation, and beyond), these formalities can still offer clues into Chinaโs thinking.
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A key source of clues is the government work report that Chinaโs premier, Li Qiang (nominally the countryโs number two leader), delivers to the NPC each year. It sums up last yearโs wins and sets the priorities for the year ahead.
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Here are five quotes from Li Qiangโs keynote that caught our eye:
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โAchieving this yearโs targets will not be easyโ
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Li is referring in part to this yearโs GDP growth target of โaround 5 per centโ – the same as last yearโs target. That figure is what most China watchers expected, which, said another way, is the minimum target China could set without spooking markets. Itโs an attempt to pump up confidence while managing expectations.
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โInsufficient demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak societal expectations and many lingering risksโ
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Here Li was listing reasons why โthe foundation for the continuous recovery and improvement of our countryโs economy is still not solidโ. Many observers would likely agree with (if not add to) that list.
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But the real debate isnโt about what ails Chinaโs economy, but rather the cure. To that end, Li announced $139B in special bonds to ramp up central stimulus while taking pressure off local governments.
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And yet the marketโs โmehโ response suggests one of two things: either the market wants more stimulus, or it thinks more stimulus is simply papering over Chinaโs more fundamental economic problems.
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And that brings us back to the diagnosis: the above list arguably reflects symptoms of a much deeper malady, stemming from Chinaโs unique economic model.
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โRegional hotspot issues keep erupting. This has made Chinaโs external environment more complex, severe, and uncertainโ
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Compared with last year, China is painting a less strident and more nuanced picture of the outside world.
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But the question is whether this is just a tactical shift in rhetoric to calm tensions abroad and focus on problems at home, or whether China is shifting its aims.
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One way to answer that is to look at whether thereโs been a parallel shift in Chinaโs actions. Sure, Presidents Xi and Biden tried to kiss and make up last year, but while Premier Li was delivering his speech yesterday, China was again firing water cannons at Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.
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โWe will promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, be firm in advancing the cause of Chinaโs reunificationโ
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Last yearโs report used the phrase โpeaceful reunificationโ with Taiwan, whereas this yearโs wording seems to (if you squint a bit) dial back that language a little.
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But itโs important not to over-index on this stuff – itโs not the first time China has removed these words, and it probably reflects Chinaโs irritation that Taiwanโs people voted for another independence-leaning government in January.
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It could also be a way to counterbalance the more nuanced tone in Liโs other quotes; a way of saying โyes, weโre lowering the temperature, but that doesnโt mean weโre letting Taiwan goโ.
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โThe armed forces will โฆ devote great energy to training under combat conditionsโ
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Itโs always interesting to see an emphasis on โcombat conditionsโ as a signal that Chinaโs not playing around. But again, itโs not the first time weโve seen this formulation.
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Many commentators say this is Xi Jinpingโs way of making sure Chinese generals donโt get complacent. After all, China hasnโt fought a full-scale war since its brief but bloody 1979 invasion of Vietnam. Xi has good reason to worry too, given recent reports of corrupt generals fuelling rockets with water.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Overall, we see no major shifts, but rather a continuation of three trends.
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First,ย Chinaโs opaque vibes look less like an attempt to obscure its economic plans, and more like genuine uncertainty about what its plans actually are.
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Second, Premier Liโs movements this week – whether mentioning his bossโs name a record 16 times, or ending a three-decade-long tradition by not hosting a press conference this year – show that President Xi Jinping is continuing to centralise and solidify his control.
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But third, thereโs tension between these first two trends. If Xi canโt address Chinaโs problems, heโll increasingly bear the responsibility for them. And that could raise the chances of Xi facing some kind of internal challenge.
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But of course, given Chinaโs opaque system, we may never know.
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Also worth noting:
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Weโre also watching to see if China will announce a new foreign minister. The previous foreign ministerโs resignation was formally accepted last week, eight months after he disappeared from public view amidst rumours of an extramarital affair and/or being caught up with foreign intelligence agencies. His replacement Wang Yi is currently straddling two jobs in whatโs widely seen as a temporary fix.
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If China names a new foreign minister, speculation is itโll very likely be the Oxford-educated Lui Jianchao, a former ambassador to Indonesia and the Philippines. Folks say heโs charming and impressive, presenting a friendlier face to a China-wary world.
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The โTwo Sessionsโ formalities wrap up on 11 March.
SUPPORTED BY SEMAFOR
What do people in Congress, executives on Wall Street, and UN Ambassadors all have in common?
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They read Principals, a totally free political newsletter by Semafor, delivering distilled yet insightful quips into Washingtonโs halls of power.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฏ๐ตย Japan: Local media outlets are reporting the possibility of Japan joining the Australia-UK-US (โAUKUSโ) security tech pact, though not its nuclear-powered submarines component. Thereโs speculation this could be announced during Prime Minister Fumio Kishidaโs visit to Washington next month.
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๐บ๐ฆย Ukraine: Ukrainian intelligence says naval drones have sunk Russiaโs Sergei Kotov patrol ship in the Black Sea, killing seven. Separately, Ukraine has also claimed credit for a drone attack on an oil depot in the Russian border region of Belgorod yesterday.
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๐ฒ๐ปย Maldives: The archipelagoโs defence ministry says itโs ordered Indian troops to leave, and signed a โmilitary assistanceโ deal with China. India has long considered the Maldives part of its regional turf, but a pro-China president came to power last year on an โIndia Outโ platform.
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๐ต๐ฆย Panama: A court has annulled the candidacy of a former president, Ricardo Martinelli, in the upcoming May elections. He was the favourite to win, but has been living in the Nicaraguan embassy since a local court found him guilty of money laundering last month.
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๐ฟ๐ผย Zimbabwe: The US has unveiled sanctions against Zimbabweโs president, first lady, and close aides for corruption and their alleged involvement in โabductions, physical abuse, and unlawful killing.โ Zimbabwe, one of the most heavily sanctioned countries by the US, described the move as โillegalโ.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what weโre reading on nuclear powerย
CHART OF THE DAY
Credits: The Economist.
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Chocolate lovers, weโve got some bad news: the price of cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, has doubled since 2022 and is showing no signs of slowing. Unseasonable weather patterns and crop-killing diseases have hit yields in the West African countries that produce 60% of the worldโs cocoa.
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Not to toot our own horn or anything, but we called this in our 2024 Predictions special edition. ๐
DAILY POLL
Do you think China’s economy will recover its mojo this year? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think the leak will impact Germany’s calculus on whether or not to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine?
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Yes, the frenzied public reaction rules out any Taurus delivery for now (25%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธ ๐ค Yes, Berlin will double down on its support for Ukraine longer term (26%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐คท No, it’ll make no real difference (29%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (20%)
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Your two cents:
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โ๏ธ H: โPublic opinion in Germany is already divided over that topic. This just adds to the political constipation!โ
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๐คทย G.C: โThe leak won’t really impact whatever decision is made, but the leak will be used as part of whatever explanation is offered for that decision.โ
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โ๏ธ A.Z: โRealistically, it will take the German government ages to figure out whether and how to react, so it wonโt change muchโฆโ
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โ๏ธ K.L: โScholz is in an incredibly precarious position: His coalition basically only exists because all three parties wanted a government without the CDU after 16 years. This leak is another example that Scholz does not have his security apparatus under control. But the man is stubborn, so he will likely try to remain firm on Taurus, but his unstable government might force his hand.โ
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PS – We thought yโall might be interested to know this was our biggest ever poll response. Almost evenly split, too! ๐ฏ