Cuban crisis

A speedboat, heavily-armed men, Cuban sunsets, soaring stakes. This is not Denis Villeneuve pitching his next Bond, but actual events from Wednesday.

That’s when the communist-run island’s interior ministry issued a note detailing an intriguing incident involving a Florida-tagged speedboat. According to Cuba’s account…

• the island’s coast guard spotted the speedboat a mile off Cuba’s shores

• they approached the mysterious boat to request identification, and then…

• the speedboat’s passengers opened fire, initiating a shootout that left four of the aggressors dead and the remaining six wounded (a Cuban officer got injured too).

Then a few hours later, Havana dropped a second note, adding further intrigue:

• the Cubans say they arrested another guy who’d flown in to help the landing party

• the speedboat had “assault rifles, handguns, improvised explosive devices (Molotov cocktails), body armor, telescopic sights, and camouflage uniforms”, and…

• following interrogations, authorities determined the men “intended to carry out an infiltration for terrorist purposes”.

Then yesterday (Thursday), Havana started naming names. Turns out they're all US-based Cuban nationals (at least two also had US citizenship), including…

• Conrado Galindo Sariol (detained), a former political prisoner in Cuba who just told an exile outlet last year, “before I die, I would like to see her [Cuba] free”

• Héctor Duani Cruz Correa (dead), a tiler with two daughters in Cuba, who seems to have stolen the speedboat from his former boss in the Florida Keys

• Amijail Sánchez González (detained), who’s done prior US jail stints (eg aggravated battery) and was already on Cuba’s terrorism watchlist over alleged arms smuggling to mount attacks against the Cuban military, and…

• Michel Ortega Casanova (dead), whose Tampa associate told reporters the guy wanted to “go and fight against a criminal and murderous narco-tyrannical government, to see if that would spark the people to rise up”.

And… what’s the US saying about all this?

Not much, beyond denying any involvement, and ordering its own investigation.

So… what’s the real story here?

Here are three of the most intriguing theories doing the rounds:

1. Was it a botched extraction?

The small sand islands near the shooting are a common departure point for locals desperate to escape to the US (90mi / 145km away), particularly as Cuba’s economic crisis worsens. So that’s a theory now doing the rounds in Florida: maybe Cuban exiles tried to extract their relatives (like Héctor’s two daughters), then panicked when caught.

And sure, it’s happened before — eg, five died when Cuba sprung a similar smuggling attempt in 2022. But on this occasion, some details aren’t a neat fit: the speedboat was already at or near capacity, and its passengers were seemingly armed like Arnie.

2. Was it a lone wolf infiltration attempt?

At least three of those onboard (Galindo, Sánchez, and Ortega) were openly campaigning to oust Cuba's regime: in fact, just two weeks ago, a frustrated Sánchez dropped a video pledging he — unlike US-based émigré elites — was “ready to die” to free Cuba.

So, all those details…? A yoinked boat, an angry video, plus family members stranded amid a worsening humanitarian situation? They all lend credence to some kind of lone wolf attempt to take matters into their own hands.

3. Was it US-backed?

The US is now (again) openly yearning for regime change in Havana, and has a long history of pursuing that goal via Cuban exiles — they bring plausible deniability, endless motivation, local knowledge / networks, and more popular legitimacy.

Folks are also wondering why the US Coast Guard didn’t intercept the speedboat given the US president had just extended the relevant maritime interdiction authority.

So there are clearly (reported) details here that overlap with known US intent and tactics. But while JFK’s infamous Bay of Pigs debacle wasn't exactly a picture of precision, it still reflected a degree of US coordination, training, and supply.

As for this speedboat incident? Parts just look so amateurish: the boat theft, the profiles, the video, and even the results (all dead / captured before even reaching shore). It’s just hard to square the US pulling sci-fi moves against Maduro, then opting for a tiler stealing his boss’s 1981 Pro-Line pleasure boat for a big move against Cuba.

Even Havana itself has stopped short of alleging direct US involvement, instead framing these events more as the US affording diaspora Cuban groups too much impunity.

Intrigue’s Take

The last time Cuba’s regime was under this much pressure (post Soviet-collapse), and open dissent was this risky, locals famously ordered their Cuba Libre (‘free Cuba’, aka a rum and cola) by stroking their chin then drawing their thumb across their neck: ie, implying Cuba would be free once Castro was dead.

It then took another quarter century for Castro to die in 2016, and his younger brother Raul is now 94 but still makes public appearances and remains highly influential — Raul’s chosen successor (Diaz-Canel) basically got his gig by pledging post-Castro Castroism.

So… our assessment? We’re operating off limited info, and there are (say) DC incentives to downplay any US role or diaspora militancy, plus regime incentives to frame this as terrorism. But that last “impunity” statement from Cuba’s deputy foreign minister above is telling:

• Take decades of Cuban authoritarianism, a darkening humanitarian situation, no end in sight, and an active US-based diaspora big enough to include fringes openly stewing for revenge, freedom, and family, all while US authorities presumably have bigger fish to fry?

Against that backdrop, Occam’s razor suggests a blend of theories one (extraction) and/or two (infiltration) fits the most facts, accounts for the clearest motives, and requires the fewest assumptions. We say ‘blend’ because maybe some onboard planned to sneak ashore to foment an uprising, while others would return to the US with their families.

But to be clear, we don’t know, and maybe we’ll never know.

Today’s briefing is presented by…

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Three stories we couldn’t shoehorn in this week 🥾

• Politics: Former New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern has made headlines with word she’s relocated her young family over to Sydney, Australia.

• Multilaterals: The World Economic Forum’s Børge Brende (former Norwegian politician and diplomat) has resigned over his Epstein ties.

• Art: London’s Victoria and Albert Museum has acquired a reconstructed version of the first ever video posted to YouTube, titled “Me at the zoo”.

Embassy of the day

Embassies with pools are such a flex.

We never got so lucky, though given how famously risk-averse and bureaucratic foreign ministries can be, maybe we feel a dash of relief at never having to sign some 16-page safety form before pulling a sweet cannon-ball en route to greet the deputy roads minister at the airport on a Sunday morning.

We can confirm the Swiss residence in D.C. has one, and word is the annual soirée permits guests to jump in after midnight, but we’ve never managed to kick on that late.

Anyway, that pool above is from Finland’s embassy in Delhi’s leafy embassy district of Chanakyapuri. First designed by a Finnish architect power couple who won the foreign ministry’s design competition in the 1960s, it aims to link snowy Finnish landscapes to India’s soaring Himalayas.

Friday Quiz

It’s the Dominican Republic’s independence day (Friday 27th)