🌍 Davos in the Desert

Hi there Intriguer. We regret to advise that Salzburg airport does not have a helpdesk for tourists accidentally flying to Austria instead of Australia. It was just an ad campaign. But we live in hope for such a helpdesk in Sydney, Canada, where tourists do occasionally stagger out into the snow looking for the beaches of Sydney, Australia.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia hosts an investment forum near a war.

• 🇭🇰 Hong Kong is still in a slump.

• ➕ Plus: A presidential assassination, how the papers are covering a migration summit in Mexico, and why folks in Turkey are tweeting about steam.

1. 🇹🇭 Thailand: The Thai Navy plans to buy a frigate instead of a submarine after Germany banned its engines from being used by the Chinese manufacturer. Thailand had four subs decommissioned after World War II, and has spent decades trying to replace them.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: Russia’s upper house has voted to rescind its ratification of a decades-old nuclear test ban treaty. The move now awaits final approval from President Putin, who says Russia is ‘mirroring’ the US (which signed but never ratified the treaty).

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced at the White House yesterday (Wednesday) a $65M plan to build undersea internet cables to eight Pacific Island nations. The partners have contracted Google to build the cables.

4. 🇨🇷 Costa Rica: Investigators have opened an inquiry into the disappearance of $6.2M from the country's aptly-named national bank, Banco Nacional. Five bank employees are suspected to have stolen the money, which amounts to .06% of the bank’s total assets.

5. 🇹🇷 Turkey: To a standing ovation from his party yesterday, President Erdogan said Hamas isn’t a terrorist group, but rather “a group of mujahideen defending their lands”. Erdogan also cancelled a planned trip to Israel, which would’ve been his first since 2005.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Geo-economics

Saudi Arabia kicks off its ‘Davos in the Desert’

Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, nicknamed ‘Davos in the desert’, kicked off on Tuesday as global business and finance leaders descended on Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel for three days of talks.

Does that hotel ring a bell? It’s the same spot where the crown prince (‘MBS’) infamously detained 400 of the kingdom’s princes, tycoons, and ministers for a violent ‘purge’ just days after his first Desert Davos in 2017.

His second Davos in the Desert was in October 2018.

Does that month ring a bell? It’s when Saudi officials dismembered Saudi dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate. Most of the conference’s A-list attendees pulled out after the news broke.

But this week’s attendee list suggests the event is definitely back, with a pretty broad agenda including:

• 🤖 AI – Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund called for global partnerships to shape the development of AI

• 🔋 Manufacturing – The kingdom announced a new Hyundai car plant with Korea’s president, who attended the event, and

• 🏙️ Neom – Riyadh unveiled a $10B deal with Danish logistics giant DSV to support the construction of the Neom desert megacity.

Intrigue's take: One topic that was notably absent? The Israel-Hamas war a few hundred miles away, and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The week’s Ritz-Carlton program opened on Gaza’s deadliest day reported to date. But Saudi officials are avoiding interviews, and guest speakers seem to be following their lead, with only a few notable (if broad) mentions of the war from folks like the IMF chief and Citigroup CEO.

This approach suggests the Saudis are well aware what’s at stake for them and the entire region if the Israel-Hamas war spreads.

Also worth noting:

• Reports emerged overnight of a brief Israeli ground raid into Gaza ahead of an expected wider invasion.

📰 How newspapers covered…

A migration summit hosted by Mexico

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🇭🇰 Hong Kong | Geo-economics

Hong Kong’s economy needs a hand

Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, announced several major tax cuts during his annual policy address yesterday (Wednesday).

The city’s status as East Asia’s premier business hub has been in question since (if not before) Beijing started openly consolidating power over Hong Kong in 2020. And its economy has taken a hit:

• 📉 Trading volumes at Hong Kong’s stock exchange have slumped for three straight years as foreign investors withdraw, and

• 🏠 House prices have slipped 15% from their 2021 peak.

So Lee’s hoping to turn things around with some targeted tax cuts.

Intrigue’s take: There are lots of ways to imagine Hong Kong’s future, but here are two:

☝️ Scenario 1: The city is just in a transition period. There might be an exodus of Western companies, but they’ll soon be replaced by firms from the mainland plus China’s new partners in the Gulf and beyond.

✌️ Scenario 2: As Beijing erodes the city’s unique legal status, it also erodes the thing that’s long made Hong Kong thrive, leaving it the poorer, integrated cousin among China’s ‘Greater Bay Area’ of cities like Shenzhen.

Lee seems to be banking on scenario 1, but it’s not really his call.

Also worth noting:

• Lee’s address lasted 3 hours and 22 minutes and included 60 references to the “Bay Area”.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world googled yesterday, Wednesday 25 October

• 🇬🇧 Britons searched for ‘Dave Courtney’ after the former gangster-turned-actor passed away.

• 🇹🇷 Folks in Turkey googled ‘Steam’ after the popular videogame distribution platform announced it was no longer pricing its service in the volatile Turkish Lira.

• 🇪🇬 And Egyptian football fans looked for ‘super league’ after the continent’s new eight-team African Football League kicked off.

🗳️ Poll time!

📜 Today in history

Today in 1979, South Korean President Park Chung-hee was assassinated by his erstwhile friend and head of Korea’s Central Intelligence Agency, Kim Jae-kyu. Kim later explained he had killed Park (at dinner) to restore democracy in the country, though many believe he did so to preserve his own power.

Thursday’s poll: If you were the leader of your country, what % of GDP would you set apart for defence spending and why?
(The global average is currently 2.2%)

1️⃣ 0% ⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ (4%)

2️⃣ 1-2% 🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ (32%)

3️⃣ 3-5% 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ (46%)

4️⃣ 6-10% 🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ (11%)

5️⃣ >10% 🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ (7%)

Your two cents:

• 1️⃣ 0% N.C: “Let’s all just try to get along!”

• 2️⃣ 1-2% S.Z: “Context is super important too. If you are like Armenia and squished between two antagonistic countries, you probably should up your defense spending. If you are New Zealand? Probably just chill.”

• 3️⃣ 3-5% L.K, S.A, & R.V: “If you want peace, prepare for war.” [Vegetius]