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Today’s newsletter: |
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Sponsored by:  |
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Good morning Intriguer. It’s been a big week for Team Intrigue. Jeremy and I had the pleasure of speaking on the main stage of the Sunrise Festival about the future of our multipolar world, and the opportunities that exist for folks who can navigate the changes.
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It was great to be able to share Intrigue’s story with the folks who were there, which included a colourful cast of entrepreneurs, funders, and creatives across industries.
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One thing’s for sure – the impacts of geopolitics will come for us all, and that’s why we created Intrigue to help you navigate these changing times. And with that, let’s take you into the weekend with our briefing on Ukraine’s latest deal with the US.
The Trump-Zelensky rift
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Our Wednesday briefing on Trump’s first 100 days had barely cannon-balled into your inbox when the White House dropped a surprise: the Ukraine minerals deal was done.
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The broad idea first emerged in President Zelensky’s victory plan last October. Dropping just a couple of weeks before Americans went to the polls, Zelensky’s strategy was:
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Keep your allies invested in Ukraine’s continued security, and
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Curb criticism that backing Ukraine’s self-defence is too costly.
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As Trump cruised to victory, Zelensky was appealing to his positioning as a deal-maker, dangling trillions in Ukrainian energy and metal resources as a way for the US to get a better deal without pulling the rug from under Ukraine’s future.
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But Trump quickly took the deal in a new direction, framing it as back-pay for US assistance already delivered rather than any kind of forward-looking partnership. And meanwhile, Zelensky held tight to his insistence on US security guarantees — without an iron-clad US commitment to Ukraine’s security, Putin would just re-arm and re-invade.
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This rift then collapsed into the full meltdown we all witnessed in the Oval Office. But now, two months and a St Peter’s Basilica pow-wow later, the two sides have signed.
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So, what’s in the deal?
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A 50/50 joint partnership
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The US and Ukraine will have an equal stake and voting rights in a new Reconstruction Investment Fund (RIF), which aims to rebuild infrastructure once Putin’s war is over.
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It’s up to the US what (if anything) it contributes to the fund — whether via financial or military assistance — though the deal flags an expectation that the US will contribute. Otherwise, it’s up to Kyiv to tip cash into the fund by diverting 50% of its revenues from any new extraction licenses (critical minerals, oil, and gas). Speaking of which…
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Full Ukrainian control over own resources
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This means Kyiv still owns its own riches, and decides where and what to extract. Likewise, Ukraine’s state-owned miners still remain state-owned and state-run. But it wasn’t all just about minerals…
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Recognition of Ukraine’s EU ambition
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Interestingly, the text makes clear this deal aims to avoid complicating Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU, and pledges to re-enter talks to fix any related issues if they arise.
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But as always, it’s also worth looking at what’s missing from this document:
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No repayment for past US military assistance
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In what might’ve been a maximalist initial negotiating position, Trump’s first draft had called for full US control of Ukraine’s future resource revenues, financing a $500B back-payment for US military assistance (now totalling ~$115B). Speaking of which…
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No transparency or corruption provisions
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This is an interesting absence given Trump’s long-stated scepticism. Or… maybe it’s not that interesting if this deal is just a broad framework, or if the two sides have just agreed to rely on existing laws (which reflect years of US-Ukraine cooperation anyway). And…
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No new US security guarantees
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This is really the big absence — sure, the text says this deal “strengthens the strategic partnership” between the two nations, and pursues “a peaceful, sovereign, and resilient Ukraine”, but it still holds firm on Trump’s red line: no new security guarantees.
Intrigue’s Take
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So this deal doesn’t really commit the US to anything, and it doesn’t really commit Ukraine to anything either (its existing resource sector continues unchanged).
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Then… what’s the point?
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Sometimes you can see the point, not so much in the text, but in the reactions:
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Trump is declaring this a win, arguing it a) secures a return on US security investments, b) uses US projects to keep “bad actors” away, and c) is a result of his direct intervention (plus he’s now also approved his first arms sale to Ukraine)
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Zelenksy is likewise declaring this “truly historic”, emphasising it’s an equal partnership that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and repairs Ukraine’s US ties
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As for Russia? There’s been no official word, though Russia suddenly ramped up its attacks, and Medvedev (a hawkish loyalist) has framed the deal as mere proof of US dominance over Ukraine — that framing reinforces domestic narratives that this ruinous war is somehow a necessary defence against Western encroachment.
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So taking these reactions together? Even if this deal is light on the substance, it’s still an unwelcome step for Russia.
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by BOXABL.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇨🇳 CHINA – Beijing says it’s “evaluating” US talks. |
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES – Trump side-lines national security advisor. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: The interesting thing about giving Waltz the UN job is that it requires senate confirmation — you can bet it’ll now be a gruelling process. Oh, and we’ve crunched the numbers and can confirm Waltz lasted 9.18 Scaramuccis (using the 11-day Scaramucci scale). |
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🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA – Shock resignations stun Koreans. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Designated Survivor vibes, anyone? Anyway, it’s tricky timing for the Koreans, who are reportedly among the closest to minting the first post-Liberation Day trade deal with the US. A few more resignations back in Seoul, and Korea’s trade team in DC might end up president by the time they fly home. |
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🇷🇸 SERBIA – Unions join students in mass protests. |
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🇹🇭 THAILAND – Prosecutor to drop charges against US academic. |
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🇻🇪 VENEZUELA – ICJ warns Caracas against land-grab election. |
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🇰🇪 KENYA – Kenyan politician shot dead. |
Extra Intrigue
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Three stories we couldn’t shoehorn into this week’s briefings 🗞️
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Gulf: How Qatar won over Trump, and enticed foreign diplomats to seek a posting in the Gulf country.
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Spycraft: Inside the CIA’s attempt to use YouTube videos to recruit spies in China and among Russia’s disillusioned elites.
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Space: A Soviet-era spacecraft is due to come hurling towards Earth next week, though it’s unclear how or where (the risk to people is apparently low).
Friday quiz
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Today is apparently World Tuna Day.
1) What did the world’s most expensive tuna fetch at auction? |
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2) What distinguishes tuna from most other fish? |
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3) When did Atlantic bluefish tuna moved from ‘endangered’ to ‘least concern’? |