🌍 Europe looks towards the Indo-Pacific

Hi there Intriguer. We’ve been searching for an excuse to mention Wimbledon for two weeks, and we’ve finally found it. No, we’re not talking about Belarusian player Victoria Azarenka getting booed off the court by some particularly harsh fans, but rather the story of a very special crystal only found in the North Sea that keeps Wimbledon’s grass so darned green. Deep sea mining and grass court tennis, together at last!

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇩🇪 Germany will send soldiers to Australia (to be clear, they’ve been invited)

• 🤝 Janet Yellen concludes a moderately successful trip to China 

• ➕ Plus: new leadership in the Netherlands, how the papers are covering China and the Solomon Islands deepening their diplomatic relations, and Nigeria recovers from flooding.

1. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was reelected on Sunday for an additional seven-year term. Mirziyoyev secured 87.1% of the vote in an election that regional security body OSCE said lacked "genuine competition."

2. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: NATO leaders flew into Vilnius for the first day of this year’s NATO summit. There’s plenty on the agenda, including Sweden’s (and possibly Ukraine’s) membership bid, the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, and, as always, China.

3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Popular tourist destination Koh Samui is facing a severe water drought due to below-average rainfall and a resurgence in tourists. Reports suggest the island only has enough water to last another 30 days.

4. 🇺🇸 US: North Korea has warned the US it may shoot down spy planes violating its airspace after a reported incident involving an American ‘reconnaissance aircraft’. It also said any US plans to deploy a nuclear-armed submarine near the Korean peninsula would be “a grave threat to peace”.

5. 🇹🇷 Turkey: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky returned from a trip to Turkey with unexpected cargo: five commanders from the Azovstal garrison. Russia accused Turkey of breaching a prisoner exchange deal that required them to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

🇩🇪 Germany | Geopolitics

Is the EU turning towards the Indo-Pacific?

Berlin is preparing to send 240 armed troops to Australia to attend joint military exercises Down Under. It’s the latest signal that Germany is turning its foreign policy focus to the Indo-Pacific after it also pledged to deploy two warships to the region in 2024.

Chief of the German Army Alfons Mais said joining the exercises was necessary considering “the economic interdependencies” between Berlin and the region.

Over 30,000 troops from 12 countries will be participating in the biannual joint drills, so while Germany’s participation is noteworthy, the exercises aren’t exactly exclusive.

Of course, Germany isn’t the only European country that has shifted its focus eastward lately:

1. 🇬🇧 The UK is poised to officially join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) free trade agreement.

2. 🇮🇹 Italy has promised to send a patrol vessel to Southeast Asia to engage in exercises with “friendly navies”.

3. 🇱🇹 Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Poland recently published new Indo-Pacific strategies.

Intrigue’s take: The EU has considerable economic interests in the Indo-Pacific – it is the region’s top investor, leading development partner, and critical trading partner.

There are also ~1.65 million French citizens living in French territories throughout the region, which gives one of the EU’s most influential members a territorial interest in the Indo-Pacific as well.

The problem for Europe is that it must pursue all these interests without upsetting an increasingly assertive China, something French President Emmanuel Macron would tell you is far easier said than done.

Also worth noting:

• Germany confirmed it will purchase 100 Australian military vehicles as part of a $1B military deal announced yesterday.

• In April 2021, the EU published its first Indo-Pacific policy, outlining its commitments to the region and affirming its intention to grow its involvement.

📰 How newspapers covered…

China and the Solomon Islands upgrading their diplomatic relationship during Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare’s visit to China yesterday.

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🤝 US | Geopolitics

Yellen finds her voice in China

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen departed Beijing on Sunday after several days of talks with Chinese officials that she called “direct, substantive and productive.”

Yellen’s visit comes as the Biden Administration struggles to balance its economic policy toward China rhetorically:

• 💔 China hawks have called for ‘decoupling’ – a total divorce from Chinese supply chains

• 🤨 Others, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, have described the US approach as ‘de-risking’ the US economy’s exposure to China

• 🗺️ But Yellen, who warned earlier this year that “a full separation of our economies would be disastrous for both countries,” used a third d-word during her trip, saying the US wants to “diversify its critical supply chains.”

Intrigue’s take: From a Chinese perspective, it probably doesn’t matter which word the US chooses if it continues to impose trade tariffs and technology bans against China and goes through with plans to introduce new restrictions on American investment in Chinese defence technology.

The good news is that Yellen spent more than 10 hours in meetings getting to know China’s new economic leaders.

And it seems she made quite an impression; the Global Times (the Chinese Communist Party’s famously strident tabloid) reported that Chinese Premier Li Qiang said, “China-US ties can see ‘rainbows’ after a round of ‘wind and rain’”.

Also worth noting:

• US climate envoy John Kerry is scheduled to be the next top US official to visit China, where he’ll attempt to restart climate negotiations that were suspended last year.

• China has demanded the US lift sanctions in order to resume military-to-military negotiations.

➕ Extra Intrigue

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• Will Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez keep defying the odds?

• How the West can prevent OPEC-style cartels for critical resources

• The aftermath of Nigeria’s floods

• South Korea prepares for its ageing population

• Putin met Prigozhin for three hours, days after his coup attempt (And no, we don’t have any idea what’s going on in Russia right now!)

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Is Ukraine ready to join NATO?

🗳️ Poll time!

👨 Profile of the day

Mark Rutte is leaving politics…

… after 13 years as Dutch prime minister and 17 years as leader of the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. His leadership across four governments and countless political crises earned him the nickname “Teflon Mark”, but his current coalition fell apart last week (7 July) after failing to agree to a new asylum policy.

Yesterday’s poll: Are you team Twitter or team Threads?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐦 Twitter (21%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧵 Threads (12%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 Why not both? (14%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🏆 This is a competition with no victors (44%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)

Your two cents:

• 🏆 J.C: “Threads is quite literally a privacy nightmare in waiting, and Twitter remains a poorly-run shell of its former self. Hard to see either as a win.”

• 🐦 D: “Threads so far is the exact same content as Instagram. Twitter is better for breaking news.”