🌍 European authorities crack down on suspected Chinese spies

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. If you’re D.C.-based, join me for International Intrigue IRL 💡 this evening, 6:00 PM ET at the popular DC spot, Immigrant Food. Come meet the Intrigue team, engage with like-minded folks, and hear from bestselling author Jack Beaumont.

Jack, a former intelligence operative turned author, will discuss (and sign copies of) his gripping new novel, Dark Arena: The Frenchman Returns. We’re almost full so if you’d like to join us, register here – we’d love to see you! 

And speaking of spies… today’s briefing leads with the latest spying scandals out of Europe.

THE HEADLINES

US Senate passes foreign aid package.
The Senate has passed (79-18) the $95B emergency aid package to deliver security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. US assistance to Ukraine, including longer-range missile systems for the first time, could reach its destination as early as this week. In addition to sanctions on Iran and Russia, the package also gives TikTok’s China-based parent company an ultimatum: sell the social media platform (one of the world’s most popular), or see it banned in the US some time early next year. President Biden is expected to sign the package shortly.
 
UN calls for investigation into Gaza mass graves.
The UN has called for “a clear, transparent and credible investigation” after two mass graves were reported at two Gazan hospitals. Israeli officials say the IDF exhumed bodies near one of the hospitals in search of hostages. Referring to the same hospital, Palestinian authorities have accused Israeli troops of killing and burying detainees. Details are still emerging, including around the second hospital.
 
Top Russian official accused of corruption. 
Timur Ivanov, a Russian deputy defence minister, has been detained on suspicion of accepting bribes “on a particularly large scale“. In 2022, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (founded by the late opposition figure Alexei Navalny) accused him of profiting off Russia’s reconstruction of the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, much of which was destroyed during Russia’s invasion.

Hong Kong IPOs are flopping. 
A China-based AI firm’s stock has plunged over 20% on its first day of trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange, making it the city’s third weak IPO this week. On Tuesday, a bubble tea maker (🧋) and a builder faced a similar fate. Hong Kong has been the worst-performing market in Asia this year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Argentinians protest against university cuts.
Hundreds of thousands of locals took to the streets yesterday (Tuesday) to protest against budget cuts at public universities. President Javier Milei came to power pledging to reverse Argentina’s economic decline by (among other things) slashing government spending. But the leading University of Buenos Aires is warning it could soon be forced to shut down, leaving 380,000 students stranded mid-degree.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Germany, like others before it, has long looked at China’s vast market as a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But Germany, like others before it, is now waking up to the realisation that maybe China was looking right back all along.

And Germany’s presumed decision to wait until Scholz got home before revealing this week’s charges is interesting – it suggests Scholz still holds out hope that Germany can tap that gold without giving up too much in return. But China is already displacing some of Germany’s key exports, like cars.

As for China – its scale means its approach to intelligence is typically to ‘spray and pray’, approaching vast numbers of targets; assuming only a fraction will be fruitful; and assuming some of those will be caught. It then dismisses (and uses) each accusation as evidence the West is anti-China. This is all priced in.

So the West’s response is as much about boosting resilience among Western targets as it is about deterring rival spooks. But as we’ve said before, there’s a very delicate balance between boosting resilience and undermining trust.

Also worth noting:

• China’s lead intelligence agency, the MSS, has taken a more public profile lately and in January accused the CIA of launching an “intelligence war”. It highlighted the case of John Shing-Wan Leung, a 78-year-old US citizen jailed for life on espionage charges in China last year.

• Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), has almost doubled in size to 4,300 personnel over the past decade.

A MESSAGE FROM POLICYWARE

Online course taught by world-leading experts on the most pressing public policy challenges

Policyware provides online courses taught by world-leading experts on the world’s most pressing public policy issues such as developments in China’s digital governance, the impact of climate change on international trade, global developments in privacy law and policy, and how labor standards and human rights are being enforced across global supply chains.

Here’s what students have said about Yale Fellow Samm Sacks’ upcoming course:

• “Everything you need to know about the current state of affairs regarding China’s data governance and the role that this is currently playing in US-China relations. I would highly recommend this Deep Dive.” – Kenton Thibaut, Atlantic Council

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: The president of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, has joined his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul to pledge an increase in defence industry cooperation. South Korea’s largest defence contractor, Hanwha Aerospace, is reportedly working on a $726M deal to supply K9 howitzers to Romania.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: A Russian airstrike on a prominent TV tower in Ukraine’s second-largest city (Kharkiv) has split the 250m (820ft) high landmark in two. President Zelensky says it was an attempt to intimidate and isolate the city. Russia also hit Ukraine’s third and fourth-largest cities (Odessa and Dnipro) overnight.

3. 🇪🇸 Spain: Local authorities appear to have accidentally released one of Europe’s most wanted criminals, the alleged leader of the Dutch-Moroccan outfit, the Mocro Mafia. Threats from organised crime in the Netherlands forced Dutch Princess Amalia to live in Spain last year. 

4. 🇦🇷 Argentina: Interpol has issued a red alert for the arrest of Iran’s interior minister, following a request by Argentina over his alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre that killed 85 people in Buenos Aires. The Iranian minister in question, Ahmad Vahidi, is currently visiting Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

5. 🇹🇿 Tanzania: The World Bank has suspended funding for a $150M tourism project in southern Tanzania, citing reports of force being used to relocate local communities. Tanzania relies heavily on tourism and has long sought to develop its vast national parks to attract more visitors.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

What we’re reading about underwater data cables

• The invisible seafaring industry that keeps the internet afloat

• Undersea ‘hybrid warfare’ threatens security of 1 billion people, Nato commander warns

• Undersea cables are the unseen backbone of the global internet

• Google investing $1B to boost connectivity to Japan via two subsea cables

NATIONAL ANTHEM OF THE DAY

Greece’s national anthem isn’t played very often on the radio, and there’s a pretty great reason why: the original version is 158 verses long! Titled ‘Hymn to Liberty’, the song’s text is taken from an 1823 poem written by Dionysios Solomos about the Greek struggle for independence under the Ottoman Empire. Its modern version, which includes only the first two stanzas, became the country’s official anthem in 1865. 

Fun fact: the Greek national anthem is played at every Olympic closing ceremony as a tribute to the event’s birthplace.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: The West seems to have lost influence in parts of Africa. Why do you think that is?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👂 The West hasn’t listened enough to Africa (27%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🗺️ The West is distracted by other regions (20%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🏃 Rivals like China and Russia have more to offer (24%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🩹 There are still colonial wounds to heal (18%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 Western investors are too risk-averse (4%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (7%)

Your two cents:

• 👂 A.B: “Colonial attitudes and prioritising short-term national interest over sustainable development have guided the West’s engagement across the continent, to the detriment of long-term relationships.”

• 🏃 J.G: “It’s a buyer’s market right now. Russia and China are simply offering more.”

• 🗺️ D.L.C: “The Israel-Gaza conflict and Russo-Ukraine war are taking most of the headlines, leaving little about Africa. I only know about the recent coups because of this newsletter. If citizens of the West don’t care or know about this issue, their governments won’t make an effort to address it.”