🌍 Explaining the latest Kosovo – Serbia tensions

Hi there Intriguer. Voting has begun for the year’s most important election: Fat Bear Week. Every year, Alaska’s Katmai National Park crowns the largest, plumpest and roundest bear. We try not to get too political here, but full disclosure: we are actively door-knocking for Holly because “her appearance somewhat resembles the shape and color of a lightly toasted marshmallow”.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 💣 Unpacking the recent Serbia–Kosovo tensions.

• 💊 The US and China are at odds on the drug trade.

• ➕ Plus: A global gathering in a tiny state, how the papers are covering upcoming Egyptian elections, and why folks in Mexico are googling ‘Mundial 2030’.

1. 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Russian President Putin will visit Kyrgyzstan next week, Kyrgyz officials announced yesterday (Wednesday). It’ll be Putin’s first trip outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March.

2. 🇫🇷 France: Paris has agreed to transfer weapons to Armenia to “enable Armenia to defend itself”. France, a long-time Armenian partner, will also assign a military attaché to its Yerevan embassy.

3. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Authorities have indicted two politicians in the Taiwanese Communist Party on charges they colluded with Beijing to influence local elections. China says the charges are “moves against those who advocate peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait.”

4. 🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos: A corruption trial in the British overseas territory ended this week with a mix of acquittals and a guilty verdict against a former deputy premier. The UK suspended the territory’s semi-autonomy from 2009 to 2012 over the allegations.

5. 🇸🇨 Seychelles: Authorities indicted the 2025 presidential candidate for the Seychelles’ main opposition party earlier this week in connection to "witchcraft". His party says it’s politically motivated.

💣 Kosovo – Serbia | Geopolitics

What’s going on between Kosovo and Serbia?

Tensions are flaring up again between Kosovo and Serbia.

Why? 

Kosovo was part of Serbia until it broke away and declared independence in 2008, a move Serbia has refused to recognise. A majority of folks in northern Kosovo are ethnic Serbs who don’t recognise Kosovo either. Over the years…

• Kosovo has accused Serbia of wanting to annex the area, and

• Serbia has accused Kosovo of persecuting the local ethnic Serbs.

Things then escalated on 24 September, when an ethnic Serb paramilitary group ambushed a Kosovo police patrol in the north. They killed one officer and lost three of their own, barricading themselves in a monastery.

Things escalated even further when Milan Radoičić, who was at the time a top leader in the main ethnic Serb party in Kosovo, admitted participating in the ambush. Local media then tracked him to Serbia, where he’d fled.

Kosovo accuses Serbia of orchestrating all this as a pretext for an armed intervention to “protect” local ethnic Serbs. Serbia denies any role and has claimed it was all the result of Serbs “protecting themselves”; its authorities detained Radoičić on Tuesday before granting his conditional release.

In parallel, NATO countries got involved:

• 🇺🇸 The US called for Serbia to reduce its “unprecedented” military build-up on the Kosovo border or face punitive measures

• 🇬🇧–🇷🇴 Britain deployed 600 troops to the NATO mission in Kosovo while Romania pledged an additional 100 soldiers, and

• 🇪🇺 The EU threatened to impose sanctions on Serbia if evidence emerged linking Belgrade to last month’s deadly shootout.

Following further calls from Kosovo, Serbia then announced on Monday a partial drawdown of troops, in a move subsequently welcomed by the US.

Intrigue's take: Still with us?

The world is full of borders that don’t necessarily match communities. External powers can often impose a kind of local stability, but many such powers are finding themselves stretched pretty thin right now. And that’s opening up windows for local players to shoot their shot again.

Also worth noting:

• Kosovo has cited the paramilitary’s use of Serbian-made weapons as evidence of Belgrade’s involvement. Serbia has denied this.

• Kosovo says 117 countries recognise it. Serbia says 28 of them have subsequently withdrawn their recognition. Russia, which has close ties with Serbia, has said it will veto Kosovo’s UN membership.

• Earlier this year, the EU sanctioned Kosovo officials when violent clashes erupted, after Pristina moved to install northern mayors who were elected in a vote boycotted by the local Serb majority.

• The EU launched the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue in 2011, to achieve a binding normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Egyptian President Al-Sisi confirming he’ll seek re-election in December

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💊 China | Drug trade

America’s global fentanyl struggle continues

The US Treasury just issued sanctions on 28 people and companies in China for alleged involvement in opioid manufacturing and trade.

Synthetic opioids like fentanyl accounted for two thirds of the 110,000 people who died of overdoses last year, up from less than 1% in 2010.

Its extreme potency means the entire annual US supply could reportedly fit in the beds of a couple of pickup trucks. Most US fentanyl is ultimately processed and smuggled into the US via Mexico and Canada.

But the production process, according to the US Attorney General, “often starts with chemical companies in China.”

Intrigue’s take: The drug trade is the ultimate game of cat and mouse. Suppliers constantly adapt their products and business models, often faster than the authorities can keep up.

One thing that helps? Cooperation between governments. And given the state of US-China ties, cooperation (unlike fentanyl) is now in short supply.

Also worth noting:

• China has described the sanctions as a “severe infringement”, which “cannot solve the United States' own problems”.

• China’s foreign ministry previously said China was the first country in the world to prohibit fentanyl-related substances as a class.

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Attorney General Merrick Garland will meet with their Mexican counterparts in Mexico City today (Thursday) to discuss issues including drug trafficking.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what folks around the world googled yesterday, Wednesday 4 October

• 🇲🇽 Mexican netizens looked up ‘Mundial 2030’ (2030 World Cup) after FIFA’s Wednesday announcement that three countries (Morocco, Portugal and Spain) will co-host the 2030 tournament for the first time.

• 🇵🇭 People in the Philippines prepped for the country’s ‘Teachers Day’ celebrations today (Thursday) to show appreciation for their educators.

• 🇫🇷 And French users googled ‘accident bus Venise Italie’ (bus accident Venice Italy) after a deadly bus crash there left over 20 dead.

🗳️ Poll time!

📸 Photo of the day

Vatican City, the smallest independent state in the world (0.49 square km), is currently hosting the Synod of Bishops for the first time in four years. Kicking off yesterday (Wednesday), it’s a weeks-long assembly of Catholic Church leaders from around the world.

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think another peacekeeping mission to Haiti is a good idea?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🗡️ Yes, it must be better than doing nothing (79%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛡️ No, it'll only worsen the situation (16%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ S.B: “Without a functional government, peacekeeping is unlikely to have lasting positive effects. However, it's important to protect the civilians there, even if just temporarily.”

• 🗡️ C.L: “It's not an option to continue ignoring it and hoping it goes away.”

• 🛡️ F.S: “My experience in the country shows that all foreign interventions (peacekeeping and/or development aid ) were a joke to say the least.”