Plus: Havana syndrome
Hi Intriguer. One of my favourite memories from last year was speaking about innovation ecosystems at the Africa Tech Festival in Cape Town, South Africa.
The whole experience blew me away because it was such a contrast to the common narrative about the continent. The startup ecosystem there was one of the most vibrant and dynamic I’ve ever encountered, driven by some of the most ambitious entrepreneurs I’ve ever met.
I’m keeping that optimism and ambition in mind as we delve into a regional conflict now brewing further north – in and around the Congo.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
¿Hablas espanol? Check out our weekly edition in Spanish.
Germany charges military officer for spying. German prosecutors have charged a man identified as Thomas H. for spying for Russia. He stands accused of approaching the Russian consulate in Bonn and the embassy in Berlin to offer secret information he obtained as a military procurement officer. Meanwhile, Berlin has announced a new $540M military aid package for Kyiv.
US considers sanctions on Huawei chip suppliers. Washington is reportedly considering sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies linked to China’s telecoms giant, Huawei. Internal US discussions on the matter began last year after Huawei unveiled a smartphone containing a surprisingly fast processor, despite the introduction of US restrictions on chip sales to China.
New HK security law draws fire. Officials from the UN, EU, US, and UK have criticised the adoption of a new national security law in Hong Kong, with the UN’s top human rights official Volker Turk saying it could lead to the “criminalisation of a wide range of conduct protected under international human rights law”.
French regulators fine Google. France’s competition authority says it’s fining tech giant Google $271M for failing to uphold a deal with French media. The 2022 agreement allows print media to demand payment from platforms such as Facebook and Google for using their content.
TOP STORY
UN peacekeepers under fire as DRC fighting spreads
Eastern DRC has become a chessboard for regional powers.
Eight UN peacekeepers have been wounded in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) during clashes between ‘M23’ rebels and DRC troops.
Here’s what’s happening.
Part of the story starts next door in Rwanda, where ethnic Hutu extremists perpetrated the 1994 genocide against a million ethnic Tutsis. The conflict and its aftermath led both victims and perpetrators to cross into eastern DRC, where many formed or joined rival armed factions.
Some 120 of those groups have since been vying for control over the mineral-rich territory, often backed by regional powers looking to gain influence.
And the recurring violence (including two full-scale wars since the 1990s) has killed some six million people and displaced another five million, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in modern history.
One of the main players is M23 (‘March 23 Movement’), which was formed by Tutsi soldiers who split off from the Congolese army after accusing the DRC of failing to uphold a key peace treaty (which had been signed on March 23, 2009). Rwanda has since backed M23, while the DRC has backed rival Hutu militias.
And now, after the collapse of last year’s ceasefire, M23 has pushed to within 25km of the regional capital Goma, where hundreds of thousands of refugees are hunkering down among the city’s 1.5 million peacetime residents.
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M23 forces now control almost all supply routes into Goma
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Government forces don’t seem strong enough to hold them back, and
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The DRC has less outside help, having kicked out a regional force last year, and now booting UN peacekeepers this year.
Meanwhile, the DRC’s spooked (if not opportunistic) neighbours are weighing in to shape events, making the whole situation more complex and combustible:
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🇷🇼 Rwanda has dismissed US demands that it pull its troops and missile systems back from eastern Congo, insisting it’s protecting itself from DRC-backed Hutu militias that pose a threat to Rwandan Tutsis
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🇺🇬 Uganda has faced accusations of playing all sides, with alleged ties to M23, an anti-ISIS partnership with DRC, and a simmering rivalry with Rwanda
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🇧🇮 Meanwhile, over 1,000 Burundian troops are covertly deployed in DRC fighting alongside government forces
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🇿🇦 There are also South African troops on the ground there supporting the DRC, with up to 2,900 more troops on their way
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⚔️ Mercenaries are on the ground too (from France and possibly Russia) providing logistical and other support to DRC forces, and
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🇧🇪 Belgium is still involved after a 75-year colonial rule that played off Hutu-Tutsi tensions, left ten million dead, and culminated in an admitted role in the 1960 assassination of the DRC’s first prime minister.
So as huge as the DRC is – Africa’s second-largest country, four times the size of France – it still looks awfully crowded with all the above players and their ambitions. And that’s making a broader regional conflict look less remote.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There are multiple races now underway around the world, and they’re not all headed in the same direction:
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Everyone is (in theory at least) racing to hit global net zero targets
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The West and China are also racing for world influence, and
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There’s tension here, as the path to net zero currently runs through China’s vast green tech capabilities, which the West is determined to balance.
Today’s story extends that tension further – the path to net zero also runs through critical minerals like cobalt; 70% of the world’s cobalt is located in the DRC; and 80% of the DRC’s cobalt output is controlled by China.
This all offers the possibility of much-needed investment and employment for the DRC and its people, but it also raises the stakes, including for:
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The DRC itself, which has deployed its troops to defend China’s assets
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The DRC’s neighbours, who’ve long profited from mineral smuggling out of DRC, and
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China itself, which has been promising more security aid to the DRC.
Also worth noting:
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DRC President Tshisekedi was just re-elected for a second five-year term, in a December election the opposition branded as a sham.
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A fascinating 2023 book (‘The Lumumba Plot’) looks at America’s role in Prime Minister Lumumba’s assassination during the Cold War.
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M23 co-founder Bosco Ntaganda turned himself in at the US embassy in Rwanda in 2013, requesting a transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The ICC convicted him of war crimes in 2019.
📚 ON OUR BOOKSHELF
Behind the scenes with spy-turned-author ‘Jack Beaumont’
Once a spy, always a spy? Former French clandestine operative ‘Jack Beaumont’ (not his real name) has taken us through life as an intelligence officer, and why he still checks if he’s being followed.
To say thanks for helping us grow, we’re giving Intriguers who’ve referred two friends (aka ‘Top Picks’ tier) access to our exclusive interview with Jack this weekend. So if you haven’t referred friends yet, there’s still time!
In the meantime, it’s worth checking out Jack’s gripping spy thriller The Frenchman (plus his superb sequel Dark Arena that just dropped):
“A deadly Europe-wide manhunt, Dark Arena is another electrifying thriller from ex-DGSE spy Jack Beaumont, delivering all the taut plotting, superb action, and authentic spycraft that made The Frenchman a critically acclaimed bestseller.”
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: China’s foreign ministry has revealed its envoy Wang Kejian met the head of the Hamas political bureau in Qatar on Sunday. China’s brief statement offered little detail, though Israeli media outlets (quoting Hamas sources) say Wang called for Israel to withdraw from Gaza and for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
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🇦🇲 Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan has pledged to hand over four frontier villages to Azerbaijan and return to its recognised (Soviet-era) borders to end decades of conflict. There was no mention of whether Azerbaijan will in turn agree to leave Armenia with a disputed territory within Armenia’s borders, roughly the same size as the four villages.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: The White House has announced President Biden will host the first ever three-way summit with the leaders of the Philippines and Japan next month. Japan invaded the Philippines during WWII but the two US allies have recently grown close, partly in response to China’s confrontational approach in the South and East China Seas.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: The supreme court has released testimony by Brazil’s former army and air force chiefs, alleging former president Bolsonaro pitched them on ways he could remain in power after losing the 2022 election. The military chiefs reportedly refused, though they claim the then navy chief sided with Bolsonaro (whose lawyers deny the charges).
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🇰🇪 Kenya: President William Ruto has signed an affordable housing bill into law, involving a 1.5% levy on wages to pay for low-income homes. The election pledge has angered parts of the public, who bristle at the added tax burden, and say it unfairly hits those in the formal (rather than vast informal) economy.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’ve been reading about Hong Kong’s new security law
STUDY OF THE DAY
Ai image prompt: A smartly dressed diplomat experiencing a headache
Two recently published studies found no evidence of brain injury in individuals suffering from ‘Havana Syndrome’, a mysterious condition that’s afflicted US diplomats and spies with dizziness, headaches, and other symptoms while on overseas postings in Havana and elsewhere. Hundreds of Havana Syndrome cases have been recorded since 2015, with some initially speculating they were caused by an unknown energy weapon wielded by a hostile power.
DAILY POLL
Do you think a wider regional war in central Africa is likely this year? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is the lesson from negative interest rates?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 They got the job done – call that a success (18%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤔 They're useful in emergencies but very costly (52%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👎 They're mostly a failed experiment (28%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👎 R.B: “Distorted capital markets, tons of malinvestment, widened wealth gap, slow growth…so why was it a good idea?”
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👍 M.H.O: “Money went overseas, and Japan maintained a fairly strong—albeit peculiar—economy. Plus, now they have decades of experience with negative interest rates, and that ought to help advance Economics understanding.”
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✍️ M.M: “They are only one piece of the puzzle, negative or positive, interest rates are not a panacea.”