Plus: Chart of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 4 reasons why next week’s COP looks meh |
2️⃣ A French court blocks a sultan’s heirs |
3️⃣ Chart of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Now, I realise we’ve all had our fill of the US election, but if you’re interested in my unvarnished thoughts about what happened and what’s coming next, then make sure to check out the Election Intrigue podcast dropping later today. If you prefer your insights delivered via a visual medium, permit me to recommend our live discussion next week on what a Trump 2.0 administration means for the world – it’s the hottest (virtual) ticket in town.
Speaking of very hot things – the earth. Discussion of climate change was notable during this election cycle for its complete absence. In fact, climate change has become the drunk uncle at Christmas dinner – everyone knows he’s there, but whatever’s going on with him is just too much right now, so we’ve all quietly agreed to just change the subject.
That might explain why I had absolutely no idea the UN’s annual COP climate talks start next Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan. Lucky for you, today’s briefing offers a tight primer on what to expect – so you won’t say “bless you” when someone at your morning meeting says “Baku”.
Fed cuts rates, chair says Trump can’t fire him.
As expected, the Fed has cut rates by another quarter percent as US inflation continues to decline (it’s now barely above the 2% target). With Trump promising pro-growth tax and regulatory changes, plus changes around tariffs and migration that’ll likely be inflationary, the Fed may soon come under pressure to slow or stop its cuts. Trump has been a frequent critic of the Fed Chair, though Jerome Powell has now dismissed any suggestion Trump might fire him, saying it would “not be permitted under the law.” Meanwhile, President-elect Trump has started assembling his team by announcing Susie Wiles, his de-facto campaign manager, as chief of staff.
Israel sends rescue planes for citizens in Amsterdam amid street violence.
Benjamin Netanyahu has sent two rescue aircraft to Amsterdam amid violence against hundreds of Israeli football fans (in town to see the Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer team play). US and Israeli ambassadors have now likened the incident to a pogrom, while Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof has condemned the “completely unacceptable anti-Semitic attacks”, and vowed that “the perpetrators will be tracked down and prosecuted”.
Europe summit braces for Trump.
Trump’s victory has dominated discussions at a summit of key European leaders in Budapest, after the two largest players (France and Germany) discussed the need for “a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context.” Ukrainian President Zelensky was also there and rejected any suggestion that Trump’s victory meant Ukraine had to cede land to Russia: “Hugs with Putin won’t help. Some of you have been hugging him for 20 years, and things are only getting worse.”
China unveils latest stimulus plan.
Moments ago in Beijing, China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress unveiled its latest, highly-anticipated measures to boost the country’s sputtering economy, after a series of earlier piecemeal steps failed to restore confidence. Today’s new steps include an $839B debt swap program to stabilise local government finances. Markets are hoping further announcements will come out of next month’s Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference meetings.
TOP STORY
Four reasons next week’s COP29 might be meh
Is COP fading into the shadows?
The 29th edition of the UN’s climate talks (the Conference of Parties, or COP) kicks off in Baku, Azerbaijan this Monday and we wouldn’t judge if you had no idea.
That’s mostly because we’re not the judging type — listen to all the ABBA you want. But also because the US presidential election has been jamming the airwaves, though even that’s not quite the whole story.
So here are four reasons why this year’s COP29 is shaping up to be low-key:
-
A slim attendee list
If there’s one thing world leaders love, it’s hanging out with world leaders. Their teams quietly compare calendars throughout the year: the more leaders committing to an event, the more valuable it is for other leaders to attend, and the more costly it is to miss it.
But many key world leaders are skipping this year’s summit: Joe Biden is preparing to hand the Oval Office keys back to Donald Trump, Ursula von der Leyen is still trying to get her new team approved back in Brussels, and Lula da Silva is still recovering from a nasty fall. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is focused on reviving his sputtering economy, Putin is focused on invading his neighbour, and Scholz is focused on his own political survival. Even the largest Pacific Island nation and home to the world’s third-largest rainforest, Papua New Guinea, is skipping this summit, calling it “a total waste of time”.
That’s a lot of missing clout, which leaves little real chance the COP’s 197 member nations will make any significant new progress in Baku. Yes, that’s a self-fulfilling prophecy — why attend a summit that’ll get little done (in part due to your absence). Either way, it all erodes COP’s effectiveness, which in turn erodes its legitimacy.
Oh, and Emmanuel Macron is also widely expected to skip this summit because of…
-
Some geopolitical drama
This year’s COP host is Azerbaijan, which launched a major military offensive to seize the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh last year, sending the enclave’s ethnic Armenian population fleeing their homes.
While the turf was widely recognised as Azerbaijan’s, the sudden and unilateral move was still widely condemned, including by France, home to Europe’s largest Armenian population. So Macron and his Azerbaijani counterpart (Aliyev) have been bickering since, with Paris accusing Baku of fanning unrest in the French territory of New Caledonia.
And as interesting as this melodrama may be, it has real implications: the world’s core climate commitment is enshrined in the 2016 Paris Agreement – it’s seen as a triumph of French diplomacy, which is one of the reasons Macron has long been one of its more vocal and influential champions. But this year, championing that French legacy would also mean Macron schlepping over to Baku and helping a rival (Azerbaijan). Not gonna happen.
So now, as a sign of goodwill (but also to mess with Macron) Azerbaijan has offered to foot the bill for Pacific Island nations (including French ones) to attend this COP. So it’ll use the summit to throw more shade Macron’s way and boost its own standing, which Baku really needs because…
-
Azerbaijan’s vibes
Azerbaijan is known for many things like its never-extinguishing natural fire, but not its civil liberties. And local authorities have cracked down on any off-script voices lately, to prevent them from reaching a global audience during Baku’s big summit.
Still, to the extent international outlets have talked about this year’s climate conference, it’s been to highlight (for example) Azerbaijan’s initial all-male line-up, or its plans to massively ramp-up gas output (which already makes up 90% of the country’s exports and a third of its GDP). Oh, and in breaking news, a senior COP29 official has just been secretly filmed using his role to advance oil and gas deals.
And that’s not the kind of photo opps many leaders want. Speaking of which…
-
Shifting politics back home
Last year, the world held its breath to see whether countries would commit to an unprecedented ‘phase-out’ of fossil fuels. We got a weaker ‘transition away’ instead, which was itself still a big deal, but also a straw in the wind: this stuff is getting harder.
Voters have been punishing governments everywhere lately, fuming at high inflation, cost of living pressures, plus housing affordability, all while wars rage or threaten to rage.
So, even as the Copernicus Institute now says 2024 will be the year our world breaches the Paris Agreement pledge not to go 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and even as researchers say that’s increasing the likelihood of a snow-free Mount Fuji or freak deadly floods in Spain or more damaging hurricanes off Florida (just this past month alone), governments are struggling to prioritise any longer-term response.
Which is again why you might not’ve heard much about this year’s COP29.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It doesn’t take long for an election like America’s to ripple around the world. It barely took a few hours for Germany’s teetering coalition government to crumble, and barely days for China to nudge harder on its stimulus efforts. Then next week, it’ll ripple across the COP, APEC, and G20 leader summits.
And the particular issues at stake may be different, but the overarching question is fundamentally the same: as the US flags an intention to potentially pull back in some areas (eg, Ukraine, climate talks, trade), will the rest of the world lean right back in? When it comes to climate talks, next week’s answer is shaping up as a “not right now”.
Also worth noting:
-
Brazil will host next year’s COP summit. In anticipation of a possible US withdrawal under Donald Trump, President Lula da Silva has urged Trump to “think as an inhabitant of the planet Earth. There is no other place to live.”
You asked, we answered! Intrigue Virtual Events
Don’t miss out!
Join International Intrigue for “Global Plot Twist: The New President’s Agenda for a Tumultuous World” on Tuesday, November 12 at 11:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM PT / 4:00 PM GMT.
With Donald Trump as the 2024 U.S. president-elect, the world is watching closely. Next Tuesday, we'll dive into how the new administration plans to navigate a complex array of global challenges. From the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War and shifting dynamics in the Middle East to high-stakes diplomacy with China, our Election Intrigue team—John Fowler and Kristen Talman—will moderate candid discussions on what lies ahead.
Register now to gain insights and prepare for what’s on the horizon.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇨🇳 China: Solomon Islands and China have announced they’ll now go visa-free, a week after Beijing expanded its visa-free treatment to nine others including South Korea, Norway, Finland, and Denmark. It’s part of China’s effort to boost inbound investment and travel, while the deal with Solomon Islands is more about expanding China’s footprint in the strategically located archipelago.
-
🇫🇷 France: The French and German defence ministers have met to discuss Europe’s security outlook post-US election. The two European heavyweights now expect the Americans to focus more on the Indo-Pacific, observing that “by doing so, they'll be able to do less in Europe. We need to fill this gap to be more credible in terms of deterrence.”
-
🇲🇾 Malaysia: A French arbitration court has ruled in Malaysia’s favour, rejecting a $15B compensation claim made by the Filipino heirs of the last Sultan of Sulu. It all ties back to a colonial-era land deal with the Sultan, which Malaysia honoured with token payments until pro-sultanate supporters upended the deal with a bloody incursion in 2013.
-
🇨🇦 Canada: Ottawa has ordered the dissolution of TikTok’s Canada business, though it’s not blocking access to the popular social media app. The government’s dissolution order cited national security concerns, presumably related to TikTok’s Beijing links.
-
🇸🇴 Somalia: The US is forgiving $1.1B of outstanding loans to Somalia, erasing around a quarter of the country’s foreign debt. Earlier this year, the Paris Club of mostly wealthy lending nations said it would also waive 99% of the $2B debt Somalia owed its members.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue
-
Read: In 2015, ISIS-linked extremists killed over 100 people at the Paris Bataclan club. Years later, a journalist attended their trial.
-
Listen: Ever heard of the fake Tahitian prince who swindled an Australian state out of a cool $10M? Here’s his story.
-
Cook: Our resident Italian (Valentina) is imploring you to give this pumpkin lasagne a try.
CHART OF THE DAY
Credits: Bloomberg
Various Western countries have been sounding the alarm at the extent to which China’s ultra-low cost (and increasingly high quality) exports are disrupting local economies. But sometimes you really just need some nerds to crunch that data and put it in graph form.
Enter Bloomberg with its chart above, which makes pretty clear why (for example) automakers in Germany are now announcing historic plant closures and layoffs. The above steep jump in electric vehicle (EV) exports is historic.
China has been open about its aims to move up the value chain to produce higher tech goods — it’s partly about reducing its reliance on inputs from Western rivals, who in turn argue it’s also about China unfairly (via state subsidies) trying to export its way out of an economic slump.
Anyway, these are the kinds of graphs that will shape the Trump team’s response, likely to include more tools like tariffs and tech export controls. China will have its own list of responses at the ready, too. In scope and stakes, this is looking like unchartered territory.
FRIDAY QUIZ
It’s the International Day of Radiology, so let’s test your knowledge.
1) When were X-rays first discovered? |
2) Where were X-rays first discovered? |
3) What's the meaning of the 'X' in X-ray? |
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 100k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
✍️ Corrections corner
Thanks to Thomas for pointing out we misused ‘spendthrift’ when referring to Germany’s former finance minister! On Germany’s debt brake, he was very much thrifty (tight), not spendthrift (loose). Imagine trying to learn English as a second language.