Plus: Pin Jong Un
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Le Pen’s party leads in French elections |
2️⃣ Belize’s extended emergency |
3️⃣ Cambodia’s cool new CoolApp |
Hi Intriguer. It’s a Hot Election Summer and we’re here for the plot twists. Joe Biden held up his end of the bargain last week with the now infamous debate performance that launched a thousand opinion pieces, while last Friday a reformist candidate won the most votes in the first round of Iran’s presidential election.
And yesterday, Emmanuel Macron’s bold gambit to catch the French far-right snoozing seems to have backfired with voters giving the National Rally a strong lead in the first-round of legislative elections. That’s the main topic of today’s briefing, as we unpick the consequences of Macron’s potential miscalculation.
Speaking of summer, we’ll be off this Thursday for the 4th of July holiday. Our London and Australian-based editors will get us back up and running on Friday, while our US based team slowly emerge from our hot-dog and watery beer induced-slumbers.
Iran heads to runoff vote amid record low turnout.
The only reformist candidate on the ballot scored a slim lead over his competitors last Friday, but failed to secure a 50% majority to avoid a runoff vote on 5 July (this Friday). Turnout looks to have been as low as 40%, indicating a marked and widespread sense of dissatisfaction with the regime.
South Africa unveils new coalition cabinet.
President Cyril Ramaphosa presented his new cabinet on Sunday, after his ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority for the first time in three decades. The ANC will retain 20 out of 32 posts, along with key ministerial positions such as defence and finance. Former opposition party Democratic Alliance (DA) will hold six posts, with the remaining six split amongst smaller parties. Ramaphosa pledged to prioritise economic growth.
Boeing buys parts supplier in $4.7B deal.
Boeing has agreed to buy aircraft parts manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems, returning the firm under its wing after two decades apart. Boeing said the deal will enhance the quality and safety of its planes. Meanwhile, the US Justice Department will reportedly charge Boeing with criminal fraud in connection to two fatal crashes involving its 737 Max over five years ago.
Political opposition accuses Bolivian president of “self-coup”.
Days after an attempted coup by a faction of Bolivia’s army, former president Evo Morales is accusing President Luis Arce of orchestrating the whole affair himself to boost his popularity amongst the electorate. Morales, who was one of the first to express solidarity with Arce last Wednesday, is now throwing his support behind allegations made by alleged coup leader General Juan José Zuñiga, who accused Arce of betraying him.
The Caribbean braces for Hurricane Beryl.
The Category 3 storm is expected to reach the Caribbean early Monday (today), raising water levels by as much as 3 metres (9 ft). Beryl’s arrival marks an early start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
TOP STORY
Strong French voter turnout with Le Pen’s party in the lead
L to R: French President Macron and President of the National Rally Jordan Bardella.
Last month, we wrote that French President Emmanuel Macron was taking a gamble after the European Parliament elections by calling a snap election at home. Well, the results are in and they don’t look good for his party.
Yesterday (Sunday), French voters cast their ballots for the 577-seat National Assembly. Macron’s party came in third place with ~21% of the vote behind the newly-formed left-wing alliance, ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’ (~28%) and Marine Le Pen’s far-right ‘National Rally’ (RN) party (~33%).
While no party achieved an outright majority to save voters from returning to the polls during prime summer vacay time on 7 July, RN led the pack and inched closer to securing a legislative majority.
If RN goes on to win, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege (and TikTok darling) Jordan Bardella would likely become France’s next prime minister. According to Le Pen, the results were “an unambiguous vote that shows the French people’s willingness to turn the page on seven years of a government that treated them with disdain”.
So what does this mean for Macron?
Macron will remain president until his term expires in 2027, and has said he would not step down before then.
So, a power balance shift in the legislative body would mean that Macron will be forced to appoint and work with a prime minister from a party he’s not aligned with, which is otherwise known as ‘cohabitation’.
Now, Macron a) is looking politically isolated domestically, b) will potentially serve the remainder of his presidency with a prime minister who disagrees with his policies, and c) has reportedly been asked by his allies to lay low before the second round of voting. Ooft.
What does this mean for France?
The final outcome of these elections could be big for France.
First, the country has only experienced three cohabitations since 1958. These periods tend to be characterised by political tensions, with the prime minister playing a bigger role in French domestic politics and the president nominally leading on foreign and military policies.
Secondly, an RN majority could usher in France’s first hard-right government since WWII. Le Pen has also successfully capitalised on voter anger at Macron, pinning his party on issues like high cost of living and immigration concerns.
What does this mean for Europe and the world?
During his presidency, Macron emerged as the de facto leader for a united Europe. A weakened Macron at home could mean a more inward-focused France for Europe, NATO, and globally.
On Ukraine in particular, Macron has consistently championed military aid for Kyiv and even refused to exclude putting French troops on the ground. That’s likely to change if RN’s Bardella becomes prime minister. The French President is also an advocate for Ukraine’s EU and NATO accession, both of which RN leaders oppose.
France’s role in NATO is also up for discussion. RN has previously advocated to remove France from the alliance’s integrated military command (although Bardella has since moderated his stance, pledging to respect NATO’s budget for 2024-30).
US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once asked, "Who do I call when I want to call Europe?". For a while, Macron was the go-to guy for many – especially the US. But if the parliamentary election on 7 July results in a decisive victory for Le Pen’s RN party, the Élysée Palace call log might just quieten down.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Why risk a snap election right after an electoral defeat in the European Parliament? Macron likely hedged that a French vote would yield more favourable results considering that EU elections have traditionally seen more experimental results than domestic elections.
Macron rode the wave of his pro-EU, centrist-liberal ‘En Marche’ party to power in 2016. But today, we’ve seen a decline in this brand of politics in France. RN’s eurosceptic, NATO-hesitant, and anti-immigration stance is hardly alone in Europe. In Germany, the ‘Alternative For Deutschland’ party (deemed too extreme even for RN), has seen a surge in membership after gaining ground in the EU elections.
There will be plenty of politicking in the lead-up to the second round of voting, and as we’ve learned from elections this year – expect plot twists. Centrist and left-leaning parties are now cooperating in an attempt to consolidate the anti-RN vote and block Le Pen’s party from achieving a majority in parliament.
Either way, France’s image as the European leader and solid international partner has likely been dented. Good thing the Paris Olympics are around the corner to distract from all that.
Also worth noting:
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France’s three cohabitations since 1958 were between 1986-88, 1993-95, and 1997-2002.
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France’s interior ministry said that the participation rate in Sunday’s legislative elections was 59.39%, up significantly from 39% in 2022.
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French President Charles de Gaulle removed France from NATO’s integrated military command structure in 1966. Paris rejoined the system only in 2009.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: South Korea-based chipmaker SK Hynix announced it will invest $75B to strengthen its chip business over the next four years (particularly AI-related chips). SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory chip makers but is looking to transition its business towards more AI processors.
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🇺🇦 Ukraine: President Zelensky renewed his calls for more long-range missiles following a deadly strike on the southeastern town of Vilniansk. Earlier this month, the US announced it would be prioritising Patriot missile systems deliveries to Ukraine.
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🇰🇭 Cambodia: Hun Sen, Cambodia’s Senate President and former prime minister, encouraged everyone to use the new Cambodian-made messaging app ‘CoolApp’. Critics fear the app might enable increased surveillance by the government, something which CoolApp cooly denies.
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🇧🇿 Belize: The government announced it was extending a state of emergency order from 30 to 90 days after a surge in violent crimes and gang-related murders. Nearly 100 people have already been arrested, and a nightly curfew on under-18s has been implemented.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: The world’s top anti-money laundering watchdog removed Turkey from its ‘grey list’, after assessing the country had made improvements to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing. Authorities hope the move will draw more international investments.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of lighter news from around the web:
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Parisians threatened to relieve themselves in the river Seine in protest, ahead of a publicised swim by the city’s mayor.
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Australia’s military is on the lookout for a new enemy: fire ants. The critters are spreading across military bases due to a “massive surveillance failure”.
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A former Olympic athlete has taken the Canadian city of Mississauga to court for the right to not mow his garden.
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An Italian NGO is suing smugglers who uprooted extremely rare cacti from Chile.
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Theodore Roosevelt’s silver pocket watch was returned to Sagamore Hill (his former home and now a historic site) after it resurfaced at a Florida auction nearly 40 years after it was stolen.
FASHION STATEMENT OF THE DAY
Credits: Reuters.
North Korean officials were spotted donning a ‘Pin Jong Un’ (pardon the pun) for the first time after state media released pictures on Sunday. The pin, featuring the Supreme Leader’s face on a red flag, is worn across from the party logo pin.
North Korean leaders are famously fond of pins: Kim’s predecessors all feature on at least one badge, although they’re pretty hard to get a hold of outside North Korea – believe us, we’ve tried.
DAILY POLL
Would you support your country taking a more 'inwards-looking' approach to foreign policy? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you agree with Assange's release?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 Yes, he's done his time (43%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👎 No, he's evaded justice (31%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚖️ He shouldn't have been prosecuted in the first place (23%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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👍 O.G: “If was time to end this saga, but while Assange brought some issues to light that needed exposure, I can't say that this comes close to responsible journalism.”
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👎 R.A: “The entire WikiLeaks organization is a rogue outfit whose purpose is to be disruptive. If they have provided any public benefit it is purely incidental. Because they do not act in concert with their stated values.”
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⚖️ J.J: “If the act of exposing crimes is a crime, something is badly wrong.”
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✍️ D.D: “So tired of this saga, hope it fades away from memory.”
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