🌍 Gaza’s Al-Ahli Arab hospital

Hi there Intriguer. Now more than ever, we really appreciate you placing your trust in us.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🚨 Gaza’s Al-Ahli Arab hospital.

• 🇻🇪 Maduro signs a deal with Venezuela’s opposition.

• ➕ Plus: An intriguing court case in Indonesia, how the papers are covering Putin’s latest trip abroad, and what we’re reading about additional US curbs on chip exports to China.

Gaza’s Al-Ahli Arab hospital

There’ve been very worrying developments since we last wrote, starting with an explosion at the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City that’s left many dead.

Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, the Palestinian Authority and others say the explosion was the result of an Israeli air strike.

And furious reactions have erupted across the region, including:

• Mass protests in Morocco and Iran, plus fiery demonstrations and incursions at the Israeli embassy in Amman, the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, the US Embassy in Beirut, and elsewhere.

For its part, Israel says intel shows a failed rocket launch by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) caused the blast, a claim PIJ has denied. The US suspects PIJ too.

In parallel, Switzerland, the UK, and the US (among others) are condemning the massive loss of life while investigations continue.

And in the meantime, this blast threatens to be the event we worried might kick off a chain reaction of escalatory events across the region.

Biden is walking the finest of diplomatic lines

As President Biden lands in Israel for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today (Wednesday), his visit is now looking extraordinary:

• Security risks. It’s rare for a US president to pre-announce a visit to a conflict zone, let alone one that deteriorates while he’s in the air. The idea was to impose a pause: deter Iran and create space for Israel to think carefully about its next steps. But that idea is fading in real time.

• Diplomatic risks. Biden’s aim was to publicly support Israel’s “right to defend itself” against Hamas atrocities while not further inflaming the region. Outrage without escalation. That just got a whole lot harder.

• And in private, we expect Biden may delineate the extent of US support, push Netanyahu to allow aid into Gaza, and caution him on the real escalatory peril ahead. But because these talks will remain private, Biden risks being seen as sanctioning whatever path Israel ends up pursuing.

Another of Biden’s goals for this trip was to work with Israel’s neighbours to alleviate the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. But this now looks fraught:

• Citing the hospital blast, Jordan has cancelled a summit between its king, Egypt’s president, the Palestinian Authority leader, and Biden.

Final thought: We can’t remember a higher-stakes trip by a sitting US president. Biden’s public grief at the Hamas atrocities has made him a very popular figure in Israel – a fact that will no doubt enter Netanyahu’s calculations as he considers his next move.

But if the region is determined to go to war, there’s only so much even a US president can do to stop it.

⏱️ Around the world in sixty seconds

1. 🇨🇳 China: Ottawa has accused China’s fighter jets of conducting dangerous manoeuvres within 5m (16ft) of a Canadian military plane. Canada says its aircraft was taking part in a UN operation over international waters to enforce sanctions on North Korea.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: President Zelensky has reported Ukraine’s first use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles. The long-range guided missiles, shipped to Kyiv in secret, reportedly hit several Russian military targets in Ukraine’s east.

3. 🇸🇬 Singapore: The city-state’s exports fell for the 12th straight month in September, as a gloomy economic outlook depressed demand for its goods and services. But Singapore’s exports to China actually rose during the month, hinting at a possible recovery.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: Water levels in the rainforest port of Manaus have dropped to their lowest in over 120 years due to a prolonged drought. Brazil’s science ministry blames the drought on this year’s onset of the El Niño climate phenomenon.

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: Abuja is looking to toughen up its licensing rules for foreign mining companies. The idea is to push foreign miners to invest more in local refining and processing.

🇻🇪 Venezuela | Politics

Free and fair elections in Venezuela?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro agreed (🇻🇪) during a meeting with opposition leaders yesterday (Tuesday) to ensure next year’s presidential election will be competitive.

Venezuela’s last election in 2018 was anything but. Its authorities:

• ⛔ barred leading opposition parties from participating, and

• 🗓️ brought the election forward by seven months, leaving less time for opposition candidates to organise.

Since then, heightened international pressure has failed to oust Maduro. So the opposition is again focused on beating him at the ballot box instead.

And in exchange for forthcoming US sanctions relief on his oil industry, Maduro agreed yesterday to allow international electoral observers, while pledging that parties can pick their own candidates and get fair media access.

Intrigue's take: But why now? Laura Dib at the DC-based Washington Office for Latin America told Intrigue it comes down to money:

“After 2019, Maduro relied on Russia and China for support. But Russia has a war, and when Maduro went to China recently he came back empty-handed. Maduro needs [US] sanctions relief to get money into the country.”

Still, we (like Laura) have doubts Maduro’s assurances will result in free or fair elections. As Laura put it, “Maduro has too much to lose.”

Also worth noting:

• An opposition primary process on 22 October looks set to nominate protest leader María Corina Machado as a 2024 candidate.

• Venezuelan authorities banned her from public office in June.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China this week

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🇮🇩 Indonesia | Politics

An intriguing court decision in Indonesia

Indonesia’s constitutional court upheld on Monday a rule that presidential and vice-presidential candidates must be at least 40 years old. But it then carved out an exemption for younger candidates with experience in office.

Where’s the intrigue? 

• President Widodo’s son (36) is rumoured to be eyeing a run for VP

• A party now chaired by his other son co-filed the case, and

• Widodo’s brother-in-law heads up the court that made the decision.

And this all fuels speculation that he’s seeking to establish a political dynasty.

Intrigue’s take: Widodo, who remains popular but is term-limited, continues to shrug off the speculation while declining (🇮🇩) to discuss the court case.

And he himself signed (🇮🇩) the electoral age limit into law back in 2017.

But we won’t have to wait long to see how this all pans out: nominations for February’s general elections open tomorrow (Thursday).

Also worth noting:

• In explaining its exemption, the court referred to examples of leaders in France and New Zealand being elected while in their 30s.

➕ Extra Intrigue

What we’re reading about new US limits on chip sales to China

• Biden to cut China off from more Nvidia chips, expand curbs to dozens of countries

• China’s chip imports decline 15% in first nine months of 2023 as the country braces for a new round of US tech export controls

• Nvidia stock falls after U.S. announces new restrictions on AI chip exports

• What’s behind Samsung, SK Hynix chip war waivers?

🗳️ Poll time!

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think India and China will ever be close partners?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, they're too big and different to be anything but rivals (82%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, their shared interests will eventually pull them together (17%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 P.T: “While both China and India support a multipolar world, China wants a unipolar Asia. […] It believes in the old Chinese saying that there can’t be two tigers on one mountain.”

• 👍 M.G: “Never say never. Unexpected political bedfellows can be found worldwide, and depend on the circumstances of the moment.”

• ✍️ M.C: “Don’t know.” [Intrigue: gotta respect that honesty]