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Hi Intriguer. A member of Team Intrigue attended the Aspen Security Forum in DC last night – itโs a top conference on security, intel and diplomacy. While the event featured a solid line-up, the audience vibes suggested there was one clear star of the show: David Cameron.
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The former UK prime minister (and now foreign secretary) gave an impassioned defence of US support for Ukraine, drew a big audience laugh by referring to himself as an โexpert in referendumsโ, then hung around to greet a long queue of influential well-wishers.
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Of course, Cameron has his fair share of critics, so I canโt help but wonder if this warm reception reflected a bit of nostalgia for the era when he was prime minister (2010 to 2016).
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Itโs a more complex world today, reflected in our below briefing on the UN chiefโs rare decision to invoke Article 99 of the UN Charter.
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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
TODAYโS NEWS
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Hack and leak. The UK has accused a group โalmost certainlyโ linked to Russian intelligence of carrying out a years-long hack-and-leak campaign to interfere in British democracy. The UKโs statement (in coordination with the US) points the finger at a group known as Star Blizzard, which is known to conduct surveillance on its high-profile targets. Russia hasnโt yet addressed the allegations.
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Duelling claims. Israel has released maps, satellite photos, and video footage it says show that Hamas has fired rockets towards Israel from areas in southern Gaza where civilians were seeking shelter. Separately, watchdog group Human Rights Watch has released a report claiming that an Israeli strike that killed a Reuters videographer on 13 October appeared to be deliberate.
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Charm offensive. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan has made his first trip to Athens since 2017 for talks with his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Itโs an effort to ease the neighboursโ long-standing tensions over territory, history, and beyond. The two struck a pretty positive tone in public, with Erdogan saying, โthereโs no problem that cannot be solved between us.โ
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ECB promises to bare its teeth. The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that banks dragging their feet responding to regulatory requests will face tougher fines. The ECB has tended to impose smaller fines than US and UK regulators, but itโs now promising a tougher approach, particularly towards banks reluctant to tackle climate risks in their portfolios.
TOP STORY
Antรณnio Guterres, and a satellite image after Israeli operations in Beit Hanoun, northern Gaza
Guterres invokes Article 99 in the UN Charter
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UN Secretary-General Antรณnio Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN charter yesterday, stepping up pressure on the UN Security Council to declare a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza and โhelp avert a humanitarian catastropheโ.
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Whatโs Article 99? It empowers the Secretary-General to bring to the Security Councilโs attention โany matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security.โย
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In his letter, Guterres says:
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“More than eight weeks of hostilities in Gaza and Israel have created appalling human suffering, physical destruction and collective trauma across Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”
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He condemns the “the abhorrent acts of terror by Hamas” on 7 October, calls for the ~130 remaining hostages to be “immediately and unconditionally released“, and says “accounts of sexual violence during the attacks are appalling“.
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And referring to Israel’s response in Gaza, he says, โmore than 15,000 people have reportedly been killedโ, “more than half of all homes have been destroyed“, “there is no effective protection of civilians“, and “the situation is fast deteriorating into a catastrophe“.
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As bureaucratic as writing a letter might sound, Article 99 is basically the only independent political tool the UN chief has. And in practice, it means he now gets the right to speak to the Security Council rather than await an invite.
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Of course, wrapped up in Article 99 is an implicit criticism by a Secretary-General that the Security Council hasnโt been doing its job. Thatโs why itโs only been invoked explicitlyย three times in the UNโs 78-year history, including:
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In 1960, responding to the Congoโs request for UN troops
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In 1979, responding to the seizure of the US embassy in Iran, and
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In 1989, calling for an end to the Lebanese civil war.
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And in these three cases, the Council went on to issue a resolution within days, reflecting the fact the UN chiefs at the time were pushing on an open door.
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So here we are in 2023, and the UN Security Council has duly called an emergency meeting for this morning (New York time) in response to the UN chiefโs letter.
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But few would describe Guterres as pushing on an open door this time. It took the Council more than five weeks to adopt its first and only resolution on Israel-Hamas. And that was after four failed attempts, including:
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One vetoed by the US (Israelโs top ally) because the draft โdid not mention Israelโs right of self-defenceโ, and
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One vetoed by China and Russia because the draft didnโt โreflect the world’s strongest calls for a ceasefireโ.
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The sheer rarity of Article 99 gives the Secretary-Generalโs move symbolic and political weight, but will it actually change anything?
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The UAE (currently a member of the Council) plans to put forward a resolution calling for โan immediate humanitarian ceasefireโ during this morningโs emergency meeting.
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It reportedly will not include amendments submitted by the US, including a condemnation of Hamas, a call for both Palestinian and Israeli civilians to be protected, and a call for the immediate release of all hostages.
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The US Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood, has already hinted at his countryโs position, saying a resolution โwould not be usefulโ right now.
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So, given the basic calculations among the key Council members seem unchanged, itโs hard to see any resolution passing.
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Also worth noting:
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Responding to the Article 99 news, Israelโs ambassador to the UN said the โdistorted positions of the Secretary-General only prolong the fighting in Gaza, because they give hope to the Hamas terrorists that the war will be stopped and they will be able to survive.โ
NEW INTERNATIONAL INTRIGUE STICKER PACK!
You heard that right, new stickers, just for you!
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Some of you super fans have already earned your stripes (or stickers, rather), but we have good news for those who are still hoping to climb Intrigueโs ladder of referral notoriety:
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We made a brand-new sticker pack! Complete with three new styles for your suitcase, computer case, water bottle, and more.
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To get them, all you need is to recommend Intrigue to eight friends or family (using your unique referral link below).
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P.S. If youโve already reached sticker pack status, but never get around to submitting your address – hit reply and get in touch!
A COP DARK SIDE?
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Weโve worked at plenty of global summits, including in our former lives as diplomats. Summits are exhilarating, frustrating, surreal, and essential parts of how our world works.
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But they have a dark side, too. Trusted friends have passed us some information on one such dark side now playing out in the margins of the COP28 climate talks in Dubai: sex trafficking. You can read more on our website here.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฆ๐ฟย Azerbaijan: President Ilham Aliyev has called a snap election for 7 February. Heโs been president since 2003 and has been riding a wave of popularity since Azerbaijan seized the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in a lightning military operation this September.ย
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๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark: Parliament has passed legislation to outlaw the desecration of holy books after a series of high-profile Quran burnings. Some opponents of the bill said the government was infringing on freedom of speech.ย
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๐ธ๐ฌย Singapore: China and Singapore have agreed to initiate a 30-day visa-free reciprocal travel program starting next year. Malaysia and Thailand have similar programs in place for Chinese tourists.ย
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๐ฒ๐ฝย Mexico: The US and Mexico have agreed to more-closely monitor foreign capital in Mexico amid soaring Chinese investment there. Mexico is by far Americaโs largest trading partner, accounting for more than $850B in bilateral trade last year.ย
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๐ธ๐จย Seychelles: President Wavel Ramkalawan has declared a state of emergency in Seychelles after a huge explosion at a mining company wrought destruction along the main islandโs east coast. Heavy rains and flooding overnight have complicated the emergency response.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations if (like our very own Ethan) you happen to find yourself in ๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico City this weekend
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Eat: Swing by Taqueria Orinoco for their al pastor tacos. This place is on every must-eat list for good reason!
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Explore: Built on a Mexican-American War battlefield, the Museo Nacional de las Intervenciones is a hidden gem of a museum that recounts the many wars fought on Mexican soil.
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Shop: If you need an authentic souvenir, thereโs no better place than the massive Mercado de Artesanรญas La Ciudadela near the cityโs centre.
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Got weekend tips for another city? Hit reply and send them in!
EMBASSY OF THE DAY
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It may not get much hipper than Italyโs embassy in Brazil, which was completed in 1977 and designed by Pier Luigi Nervi, a legend of Italian design. Nervi was famous for his use of reinforced concrete, which he moulded into โquadricuspidโ columns for this project, giving the embassy a lightness and upward movement over the lake underneath.
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Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
FRIDAY QUIZ
1) Which two countries share the longest land border in the world? |
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2) How many countries grant visa-free entry to Afghan passport holders? |
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3) Which of the following shares a land border with more than one country? |