Plus: Minnesota gets a new flag
Hi Intriguer. My time in the foreign service often left me wondering how applicable a diplomat’s skills really are on the outside. And we’ll soon get a very entertaining answer to that question when a fellow diplomat competes on the next Survivor reality TV series in Australia.
Former foreign service officer Mark Warnock will be one of 24 hopefuls heading to the beaches of Samoa in February, hoping to outwit, outplay and outlast the rest. Fun fact – he’s an old friend and colleague of ours, plus an avid Intrigue reader.
For now, our briefing today leads with an update on this week’s flurry of diplomacy around Israel and Gaza.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
PS – Tomorrow will be our last edition for the year, but we’ll be back in your inbox from 8 January (plus a special 2024 look-ahead beforehand).
Trading Spaces. The US and Venezuela exchanged prisoners yesterday, with US officials reportedly hoping it could help coax President Maduro into making further democratic concessions. The deal involved Venezuela releasing ten Americans plus a Malaysian fugitive nicknamed ‘Fat Leonard’, who fled the US just before his sentencing over an extensive corruption scheme in the US Navy. In return, the US released Alex Saab, an alleged money launderer for Maduro.
Cutting some slack. EU finance ministers have agreed on a deal to loosen fiscal rules for member states, after Germany and France reached a compromise. The new rules set a minimum level of debt and deficit reduction for governments, keeping Germany and other frugal members happy. But on balance the new rules are more lenient, satisfying the mostly-southern EU countries led by France.
Holiday sale. Newly inaugurated Argentinian President Javier Miliei has signed a decree to sell off tens of state-controlled companies, many of them loss-making. The move is aimed at repairing Argentina’s balance sheet and liberalising its economy, but it’s expected to face pushback in Congress.
Double stream. Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount Global, two of the biggest entertainment companies in the US, are reportedly discussing a potential merger. A deal would see the owner of HBO and CNN team up with the Hollywood studio behind The Godfather and Titanic.
TOP STORY
Diplomatic activity intensifies in the Middle East
The leader of Hamas’s political arm, Ismail Haniyeh, travelled from Qatar to Egypt yesterday (Wednesday) for talks on a potential new humanitarian pause in Gaza. Israel is reportedly offering to pause hostilities for at least a week in exchange for the release of over 30 hostages, according to Axios.
This comes after Israeli President Isaac Herzog told a gathering of foreign diplomats that his country was “ready for another humanitarian pause and additional humanitarian aid in order to enable the release of hostages”.
It’s just some of the dialogue happening this week:
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🇺🇸 US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has met his Israeli counterpart, urging Israel to shift to “lower intensity and more surgical operations”
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🇺🇸-🇮🇱-🇶🇦 CIA Director Bill Burns has met his Israeli counterpart and the Qatari prime minister in Warsaw to discuss the terms of any new pause
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🇬🇧 UK Foreign Minister David Cameron is wrapping talks with his Jordanian counterpart on boosting aid to Gaza, before heading to Egypt
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🇫🇷 French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna has travelled to Israel, the West Bank and Lebanon, calling for an “immediate truce” and urging calm along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, and
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🇺🇳 The UN Security Council is due to vote on its next resolution this morning (Thursday) after a series of delays to try to accommodate US objections. If it passes, the text will call for a pause to get aid in.
But notwithstanding this spike in ministerial activity, the reported death toll in Gaza now reaching 20,000, and the prospect of another potential pause, any longer-term end to hostilities still looks far off.
Hamas is reportedly refusing to resume negotiations until Israel hits pause, and saying it’ll only release more hostages as part of a permanent ceasefire.
For his part, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to vow that Israel won’t stop until it achieves its objectives: “the elimination of Hamas, the release of our hostages, and the removal of the threat from Gaza." His foreign minister says this is the case, ”with or without international support”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So if the fundamentals don’t seem to be shifting, what’s all this diplomatic activity?
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It’s partly to stop things getting worse
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It’s partly to shape others’ calculations, expectations and actions
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It’s partly to keep lines open in case this shaping produces results
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It’s partly to pressure Israel into changing its tactics if not its strategy
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And it’s partly about signalling to domestic constituencies
Also worth noting:
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Authorities have arrested a former Uzbek government minister for alleged embezzlement. Word on the streets of Tashkent is this arrest could be part of a purge led by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s powerful daughter, Saida.
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🇫🇷 France: Parliament has approved an immigration overhaul, tightening the criteria for things like accessing state subsidies. While polling suggests the measures are popular, the health minister resigned after the bill passed with support from populist leader Marine le Pen.
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: The opposition party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan says he’ll contest Pakistan’s February elections from prison. There’s potentially no legal obstacle here while he appeals a corruption conviction, and as for practical obstacles… Khan used AI to deliver a speech to supporters from prison this week.
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🇺🇸 US: Japan is reportedly set to change its defence export rules so it can send dozens of Patriot missiles to the US, freeing up Washington to transfer more to Ukraine. The air defence missiles are already in high demand in Eastern Europe, and the Pentagon has recently deployed more to protect US troops in the Middle East.
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🇨🇩 DRC: Voting has kicked off in the Democratic Republic of the Congo amid logistical and security concerns. President Felix Tshisekedi, who’s running for re-election to a second and final term, is widely considered the frontrunner in a fractured field of around 20 candidates.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what folks around the world googled yesterday
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🇯🇵 Japanese consumers searched for news regarding car manufacturer ‘Daihatsu’ (ダイハツ) which announced it would halt all shipments of its vehicles following a safety scandal.
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🇨🇴 Colombian gamers looked up ‘Geometry Dash 2.2’ after the legendary phone game released a much-awaited update.
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🇵🇱 And Polish folks googled ‘pay rises for teachers’ (Podwyżki dla nauczycieli) after newly elected Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a salary increase for public employees.
FLAG OF THE DAY
The US state of Minnesota finalised a new flag design on Tuesday after a months-long public competition (some of the 2,600 submissions are worth a look).
The winning design features an eight-pointed star in a nod to the state’s motto (Star of the North), while the dark blue resembles the state’s shape, and the light blue is there for the state’s waters. It’s growing on us.
DAILY POLL
What stories would you like to see us cover more in 2024? |
Yesterday’s poll: Should US lawmakers try to prevent Nippon's acquisition of US Steel?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🙂 No, it's good for everyone involved (63%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤨 Yes, steel is too important for national security (35%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write-in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🙂 G.S: “To bailout the steel industry and US Steel in particular as we did with the automakers isn't politically tolerable at this stage.”
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✍️ M.M: “As the West moves further into conflict with China, consolidating vital resources like steel and pulling away market share from China will benefit the US and its allies in the future. The negative response from lawmakers from both sides is probably just a knee-jerk reaction […]”
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🤨 K.P.M: “Yes, I hate government intervention in the free market system. It rarely goes well… but steel is the lifeblood of every major power. It's truly a critical industry.”