🌍 Has India reached peak Russian oil?

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Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🇮🇳 India might’ve hit peak Russian oil.

• 🇮🇷 Iran’s prisoner deals, through the eyes of a survivor.

• ➕ Plus: The DRC wins independence 63 years ago, how the papers are covering the mysterious disappearance of Russian generals, and what Geneva and Guadalupe have in common.

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: South Koreans are stocking up on sea salt ahead of the release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Japan’s plans are compliant, but several countries like South Korea and China have criticised the release.

2. 🇫🇷 France: Authorities have arrested at least 400 people across France after police killed a teenager at a traffic stop on Tuesday, leading to three nights of widespread unrest. President Macron has convened his ministers for crisis talks.

3. 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: Sri Lankans are currently enjoying a five-day holiday following the restructuring of the country’s $42B domestic debt. Authorities are hoping the holiday will prevent runs on its newly restored banks.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: Authorities are looking for 15 security ministry employees who were kidnapped from a highway in southern Mexico on Tuesday. President López Obrador said there was generally “tranquillity” in the region when he visited last week.

5. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: A shooting near the US Consulate in Jeddah left two dead on Wednesday. Authorities are still investigating the incident and have not yet commented on a possible motive.

🇮🇳 India | Geo-economics

Has India reached peak Russian oil?

India is hoovering up discounted Russian oil that’s been shunned by Western buyers. But there’s speculation this spree might be maxing out.

India gets nearly all its oil from abroad. And traditionally only around 1% has come from Russia, or around 43,000 barrels per day (bpd). But post-invasion, India now gets almost half its oil from Russia, or 2.3 million bpd.

So why are folks saying India might’ve reached its limit?

1. 👷 Infrastructure: Few Indian refineries are equipped to process the Urals crude that Russia produces. And fewer seem interested in building the new infrastructure needed to handle more Urals.

2. 💱 Currencies: India-Russia negotiations over longer term contracts recently collapsed, in part because Western sanctions prevent India from paying in US dollars, but Russia doesn’t want Indian rupees.

3. 🌐 Geopolitics: India’s purchase of Russian oil not only irritates the West, but potentially also India’s long-time suppliers like Saudi Arabia.

Intrigue's take: But even with the above complications, and as we hit India’s monsoon season (when demand usually drops), India’s shipments of Russian oil just keep hitting new records (for the 11th straight month now).

So what’s going on? 

A new report suggests India is re-selling Russian oil to the West as processed products like gasoline. And that’s not only profitable, but legal. So there’s a solid chance Indian refineries will keep smashing those records.

Also worth noting:

• According to one estimate, India's oil demand could hit 9 million bpd by 2040.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Rumours about the fate of two top Russian generals

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🇮🇷 Iran | Prisoner negotiations

Is the US negotiating a hostage deal with Iran?

A guest piece by Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert

Credible reports are circulating about a new cash-for-hostages deal underway between Iran and the United States.

The deal is thought to involve $7 billion in frozen Iranian funds held in South Korean banks due to US sanctions, which the Iranians are demanding in exchange for three imprisoned Iranian-Americans: Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz.

These three innocent men have been held in Iran for years under spurious security-related charges and are recognised as wrongfully detained by the US government. The US must prioritise securing their release, but at what price?

Iran’s highly effective strategy of hostage diplomacy has ramped up in recent years. Previous prisoner swaps and frozen funds/debt transfers to Iran have undoubtedly encouraged it to take more foreign hostages, feeding an emerging business model that only results in more innocent people being subjected to torture and deprivation of liberty. Officials have even bragged about using hostage-taking to fund the sanctions-crippled state budget.

It is hugely morally problematic to reward the Iranian regime to the tune of $7 billion at a time when the Iranian people are rising up in unprecedented numbers demanding freedom, and being tortured, raped, murdered and executed as a result.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), as the principal group engaged in the hostage-taking enterprise, considers these billions to be its own private bounty. Despite the fact that the US has listed the IRGC as a terror organisation, Washington appears to be poised to allow it to access this money at the same time as the group is butchering the Iranian people in the streets.

Siamak, Emad and Morad must be freed. However, countries doing deals with Iran have a moral responsibility to ensure they are not incentivising more hostage-taking and that they are not funding the regime’s campaign of terror against the Iranian people. There has to be another way.

Intrigue's take: Kylie is one of the most perceptive commentators on Iran and its use of hostage diplomacy. Her extraordinary book, The Uncaged Sky, details the 804 days she spent in an Iranian prison after being falsely charged with espionage. It’s a must-read. And we’re honoured Kylie shared her thoughts with us today.

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Why is Georgia drifting into Russia’s orbit?

➕ Extra Intrigue

Do you know what links all the following places together?

• Geneva

• Guadalupe

• Paris

• Tianjin

• Versailles

• Vienna

• Westphalia

🗳️ Quiz time!

📜 This day in history

On this day 63 years ago, the Republic of the Congo (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo) won its independence after 75 years of colonial rule. Five days after independence, five years of conflict erupted, culminating in the 32-year dictatorship of Joseph-Désiré Mobutu.

Quiz Answers: 1-c, 2-d, 3-a.

Word search answers: Important peace treaties or conventions throughout history were named after these places.