Plus: Map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Protests rock Turkey |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. An enduring memory from my time serving in the Middle East was the night of the attempted coup in Turkey in 2016. I was at a dinner party with several other diplomats hosted by our German colleague, and several courses (and bottles of wine) into the meal when we got the alerts.
Back then, Facebook was still a thing, and I remember us all being glued to our phones, on that platform, eagerly watching for any updates to the coup. To our collective surprise, we instead saw self-filmed footage of President Erdogan live-streamed to the world, signalling his hold onto power and the coup’s failure.
What followed the coup was a sweeping movement across the Turkish government to ‘clean house’ and reconsolidate power for President Erdogan. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re seeing more political turbulence from Turkey. That’s our top story today.
PS – Don’t miss our unfiltered chat with Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir, who’s just wrapped as foreign minister of NATO’s only member without a military (Iceland). It’s online, this Friday at 9.30 ET — register here!
US announces Black Sea ceasefire.
According to the US, both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”. But while Kyiv says it’ll comply immediately, Russia is first demanding the lifting of certain financial sanctions.
JD Vance joins Greenland visit.
The US VP has announced he’ll now join the second lady and other senior US representatives on their visit to Greenland later this week. Given Trump’s statements about taking Greenland, the territory’s leader has slammed the trip as “aggressive”.
US closes China export loopholes.
The Department of Commerce has added dozens more Chinese cloud computing and other tech entities to a US export control list, in an effort to slow China’s advances.
Indonesia rupiah hits fresh low.
The Indonesian currency has hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis — we wrote about the underlying economic and political drivers here.
Iran qualifies for US-hosted FIFA World Cup.
Asia and Oceania have become the first regions to announce their qualifying teams for the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by Canada, the US, and Mexico. Among the early confirmed teams are Iran, New Zealand, and Japan.
TOP STORY
Has Turkey’s Erdogan gone too far?
This masked protestor in a dervish hat has become a protest icon.
Since police detained Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu last week, protests have roared against what Turkey’s opposition is calling a “black stain on democracy.”
And it’s sent markets into a tailspin.
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The lira collapsed to an all-time low last week, before Turkey’s central bankers burned a cool $12B in an attempt to stabilise it.
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Then yesterday (Tuesday), President Erdogan rolled out his market-darling finance minister (Şimşek) and central bank governor (Karahan) for an emergency Citi/Deutsche-hosted chat with investors to try and calm things further.
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Oh, and in the regulatory equivalent of screaming “don’t panic”, Turkey’s regulators even moved to ban short-selling on stocks.
Basically, markets are rattled at the thought of assets no longer being protected by the rule of law. But still, Turkish authorities have dug in, suspending İmamoğlu on Sunday and formally arresting him on corruption charges (dropping the earlier terrorism allegations).
Yet as protests raged, Turkey’s long-time leader was defiant, denying any involvement in the mayor’s arrest and calling the protestors evil, before seeking to project calm by sipping tea around town.
Ditto, foreign capitals have mostly shrugged, with Washington calling it an internal affair (though Rubio just raised it with his visiting Turkish counterpart) — and Europe issued a run-of-the-mill rebuke, then moved on.
So do Turkey’s protests matter?
Looking at the world around him, Erdogan might conclude not:
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His Saudi counterpart ‘MBS’, for example, brutally assassinated a US-based critic in a consulate and still has warm ties with everyone from East to West, and
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Erdogan’s party continues to argue that İmamoğlu’s case is actually proof of democracy’s strength in Turkey, leaving nobody above the law (though many detained protestors, journalists, plus blocked X accounts now seem below it).
Also, Erdogan has been here before:
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He learned from the mass 2013 Gezi Park protests to just wait out the storm, and
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He learned from the 2016 coup attempt to keep his hands on the levers of power.
But… money talks.
Erdogan allowed inflation to fire at over 70% for much of the post-pandemic period, pressuring his central bank to keep rates low while he sought re-election in 2023 — and despite incinerating real wages, it worked, Erdogan won, and he vowed to course correct.
And that’s why this latest crisis matters: the mayor’s arrest has spooked markets, which have in turn undone hard-fought economic gains, rattling an already anxious people.
That’s why they’re willing to risk it all in the streets.
So what’s next? While the opposition is planning an emergency convention next month, Erdogan is again banking on time and control eventually working in his favour.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
The focus here is naturally on Erdogan, who’s widely rumoured to be sticking around beyond his constitutional limit (2028) — his allies are already working on the legal hurdle (amendments), and steamrolling İmamoğlu removes the political hurdle.
But maybe a more intriguing place to focus is on Şimşek, his highly regarded finance minister, who might soon find himself in a bind between either a) sticking around while his reputation burns, or b) stepping down to salvage it. Erdogan will fear the market’s response to option b), and that might give Şimşek leverage as he tries to calm investors.
But if that sounds familiar, Intriguers will recall we’ve discussed similar tensions with (for example) how Indonesia’s Prabowo needs his Indrawati, and Russia’s Putin needs his Nabiullina. Markets and their darlings might be the closest these guys have to guardrails.
Yet still, those guardrails might be getting weaker. One reason is (sorry) our emerging multipolar world, which gives Erdogan more leverage as the world realises it needs his energy and arms sectors. That’s partly why capitals are shrugging this time.
But let’s wrap this where we started: with folks in the streets. While Erdogan has support, many Turks still tell us they’ll take the tear gas and handcuffs because they no longer see a future in his Turkey. That’s not the mark of a sustainable status quo.
Also worth noting:
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Istanbul city council is reportedly now moving to elect an interim mayor to replace İmamoğlu.
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Authorities formally charged İmamoğlu the same day his party was set to nominate him as their presidential candidate for 2028. Many see his arrest as a message to the opposition: challenge Erdogan at your peril. But the opposition responded with a message of its own: a record 13 million votes for İmamoğlu.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇳 Mongolia: The new head of multinational commodities giant Trafigura has described the company’s $1.1B loss in Mongolia last year as a “humbling experience”, after employees there tried to cover up a multi-year fraud. Executives are now encouraging staff to speak up if they see something.
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🇩🇰 Denmark: Copenhagen is adding women to its national compulsory military service, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues. It’s now seeking to implement the change next year, two years earlier than first planned.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Malaysia is moving forward with a plan to relocate a non-approved Hindu temple to make way for a mosque. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim himself is set to break ground on the mosque this month, with critics claiming he’s courting ethnic Malay voters.
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🇸🇻 El Salvador: President Nayib Bukele has said his government is still buying Bitcoin despite a deal with the IMF pledging to tone it down. But the IMF seems cool with it, noting local authorities are ensuring consistency with the IMF’s terms.
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🇧🇮 Burundi: President Évariste Ndayishimiye has told the BBC he has “credible intelligence” Rwanda plans to attack his country, a claim Kigali has rejected. Their shared border has been shut for over a year after attacks by rebels (who Burundi says are Rwanda-backed).
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the Move ✈️
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🇰🇵 North Korea has appointed a new ambassador to Bulgaria, awkwardly presenting credentials at the same time as South Korea’s new envoy.
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🇫🇷 French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Egypt in early April for discussions on the Arab-led Gaza reconstruction plan, which looks wobbly.
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🇭🇺 Hungary’s foreign minister (Péter Szijjártó) has held talks with his new counterpart in neighbouring Austria, Beate Meinl-Reisinger.
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🇮🇷 And Iran’s current ambassador to Pakistan now faces US sanctions for alleged involvement in the abduction and presumed murder of a former FBI agent!
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: AP.
Guess what this map is? Okay smarty, yes, it’s Europe. But those numbers? They’re AP’s compilation of 59 recent hybrid warfare incidents that European officials have blamed on Russia, ranging from cyberattacks, to vandalism, to sabotage.
Moscow has of course denied any efforts to destabilise Europe and impose costs for backing Ukraine, but as we wrote back in January, these types of operations are by definition calibrated carefully: “never big enough to trigger an immediate escalation, and always with an element of plausible deniability.”
DAILY POLL
Do you think these protests will change anything in Turkey? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think this group chat incident means?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤭 It was a mistake, move on (23%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😠 It was an outrage, heads should roll (70%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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😠 M.P: “It’s mind boggling that… as it progressed, not a single one said ‘we should probably continue this discussion elsewhere.’ Unbelievable.”
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🤭 S.W: “Typical selective ‘outrage’ trending I see. I expect there will be accountability forthcoming (something new?) and all will learn from this error. Focus on what is important folks.”
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✍️ M.E: “The dirty secret is out: everyone in DC uses commercial apps. Why? Because government systems are just plain bad. Sounds like a problem looking for a solution.”
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