Plus: Map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s next for TikTok |
2️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend tips |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. My phone was blowing up all day yesterday. There are usually only two cases in which this happens. The first (and most often) case is when my mother calls to tell me about her day and update me on our dog’s latest news. The second is when there’s hot international gossip dropping in the Intrigue Diplo Club chat.
And let me tell you, off the back of the US’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and free-falling markets, the content in the Intrigue Diplo Club WhatsApp chat has been top notch. It’s delivered barrages of graphs, banter, and – of course – memes to help folks make sense of the world we’re living in. To join the club, simply refer five new Intriguers using your unique referral link down below, and share the Intrigue love.
Now, onto today’s briefing on one of my all-time fave topics: TikTok. This time, we're looking into the looming deadline for the company to be sold or face a US ban.
PS — We’re excited to announce our next special guest will be the one-and-only Audrey Tang, Taiwan’s ambassador-at-large for cyber affairs! Don’t miss our unfiltered chat with Audrey on the future of democracy in the age of AI, Wed 16 April at 8pm ET. Register here!
South Korea’s top court ousts president.
Korea’s constitutional court has unanimously upheld parliament’s impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol over his brief but spectacular flirtation with martial law in December. That means Korea must now hold a presidential election within 60 days.
World markets digest Trump’s tariffs.
US markets just saw their worst day since the early Covid days in response to US tariffs that the IMF chief has labelled “a significant risk to the global outlook”. For his part, Trump is promising a boom ahead. Btw — friend of Intrigue, fellow ex-diplomat, and best-selling trade guru Dmitry Grozoubinski will be joining us for a DC soiree exclusively for Intriguers next Friday, April 11 at 5pm. We’re almost at capacity, so register your interest here!
Trump fires NSA chief.
The US president has reportedly fired General Timothy Haugh as director of the National Security Agency, America’s lead collector of signals intelligence, alongside various National Security Council officials following a meeting between Trump and a fringe social media personality. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s internal watchdog has announced it’ll evaluate Defence Secretary Hegseth’s use of Signal to discuss last month’s Houthi strikes.
Russia backs new alliance of West African juntas.
Moscow has agreed to provide arms and training to a new joint force between the military juntas running Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The Kremlin has used local instability to expand its regional influence since at least 2021.
Klaus Schwab to step down.
The founder and chair of the World Economic Forum (of Davos fame) has announced he’ll step down after 55 years at the helm. A search for his replacement will reportedly wrap by 2027, with WEF president and former foreign minister of Norway Borge Brende gradually handling more duties in the meantime.
TOGETHER WITH MASTERWORKS
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TOP STORY
Here’s what’s next for TikTok
As markets stubbed their toe on Trump’s high-stakes tariff reveal this week, it was almost possible to forget about that pesky April 5 (tomorrow) deadline for TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell up or face a painful US ban.
And while Trump extended that deadline on his first day back in office, it now looks like this one might stick, with Trump saying a deal is “very close”.
So who’s gonna buy it?
The list of candidates is longer than Dune, including…
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Amazon, which just lodged a last-minute bid
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The Caymans-based HBAR Foundation (crypto) with the UK’s OnlyFans founders
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Perplexity, the US-based AI search start-up
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‘Project Liberty’, which pledges more user control, backed by rich-listers like Reddit’s Alexis Ohanian and Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary
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Musk was reportedly in the mix there for a while too, and
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There’s an Oracle-led bid backed by US investors like A16z and Blackstone, who want to buy TikTok’s China-based parent company’s stake in its US operations (pre-existing US investors like General Atlantic and KKR also want more).
With the app’s 170 million devoted US users driving a likely valuation into the tens of billions, this whole deal is giving off seagulls-squabbling-over-french-fries vibes.
And it’s all hush-hush, but word is the Oracle-led bid is emerging as the top seagull.
But that leaves us with three questions.
First, will TikTok’s China-based parent (ByteDance) agree?
It’s consistently said no, and TikTok boss Shou Chew has been working the halls in DC and Mar-a-Lago to plead his case, arguing the whole ✌️national security✌️ narrative is just a smokescreen to help US rivals who can’t keep up.
But even if that’s just been a hardball tactic rather than a final position, it’s then unclear what exactly is for sale: investors want more than a Google Drive folder with TikTok’s logo. Rather, they want TikTok’s secret sauce: its prized algorithm.
There’s been word maybe TikTok’s owners might just license that algorithm rather than sell it, but if that’s the case, some of the possible US buyers above might just pull out.
But even if you get buyers and sellers aligned…
Second, will China’s Communist Party agree?
It’s already said no for a bunch of reasons, including:
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Selling TikTok would mean handing an advanced technology to the US, and
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Beijing wouldn’t approve such a tech transfer under duress.
And of course, the very ability of the Party to block TikTok’s sale has fuelled US lawmaker concerns that TikTok’s vast US reach is ultimately answerable to an authoritarian rival.
But interestingly, Beijing’s tone has shifted since Trump’s return, with officials now noting more neutrally that it’s ultimately up to the companies and investors themselves. That could suggest the Party’s initial opposition was a negotiation tactic rather than a veto.
And third, what’s at stake either way?
If everyone agrees and a sale goes through, it could be an off-ramp for all involved:
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The app’s 170 million users still get to watch skaters chug Ocean Spray while lip-syncing to Fleetwood Mac
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Millions of the app’s US creators and small businesses still get to generate income
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US investors get a bigger stake in the platform’s profits
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China’s investors take billions off the table while TikTok wins non-US markets, and
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Trump and Xi have one less irritant to square away.
But if this sale doesn’t go through, it’s the inverse, but also:
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Trump will feel the wrath of millions of American TikTokers (though he’ll presumably note it was Biden who signed the sell-or-ban law), and
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TikTok will still be available to (and profitable from) its 90% non-US user base.
As for Trump and Xi? Both will still claim a win if any sale falls over:
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For Trump, it’ll be proof that you play by US rules, or you don’t play at all
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But for Xi, it’ll be proof you can ditch the US and still thrive elsewhere.
Anyway, at this late stage, we might see a grey announcement declaring that real negotiations are now underway, stringing the deadline along while haggling continues.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Any Washingtonians will have seen through a dazed commuter haze just how much TikTok has doubled down with its ads on the DC Metro lately, showcasing successful American Dream stories resting on continued access to TikTok. That’s the fun of living in a world capital: burrito meal deals spliced with ads for killer drones and lobbyists.
Anyway, to the extent these talks are now back at the DC-Beijing level again, you can bet Trump’s latest 34% tariffs on China will be part of the haggling: just greenlight TikTok’s sale, and we’ll ease those tariffs back a little. And of course, that’d further vindicate US fears of TikTok ultimately being answerable to Beijing, but a deal’s a deal.
Also worth noting:
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Key backers of the leading Oracle bid, like A16z’s Marc Andreessen and Oracle’s Larry Ellison, are known to be close to Trump.
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Meanwhile, Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to China (former executive and gubernatorial candidate David Perdue) had his Senate foreign relations committee hearing yesterday (Thursday). The two-hour session went without incident.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: Defence company Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has won a $216M contract with Japan’s defence forces to develop new ground-to-ground and ground-to-ship precision-guided missiles. As the region heats up, the project is billed as part of Japan’s contingency planning in case of invasion.
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🇭🇺 Hungary: Budapest has announced it’ll withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC). It made the announcement the same day Prime Minister Orbán hosted his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, who’s been under an ICC arrest warrant since last year.
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🇮🇳 India: The leaders of Thailand and India have elevated their ties to a ‘strategic partnership’, pledging more cooperation on defence and infrastructure. These kinds of partnerships are becoming more common as world leaders hedge their bets in a volatile world.
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🇭🇹 Haiti: Thousands have hit the streets in Port-au-Prince in protest against the ongoing gang-led insecurity, demanding more action from the police. Armed gangs still control much of the capital despite a Kenya-led security mission.
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🇸🇸 South Sudan: Uganda’s leader Yoweri Museveni has visited South Sudan for talks with his local counterpart, Salva Kiir. The Ugandan VIP is just the latest regional visitor hoping to defuse tensions after last month’s arrest of a South Sudanese vice president revived fears of a return to civil war.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend tips from all of us at Intrigue
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Listen to the debut album by surprise supergroup ASTROPICAL, merging Venezuelan tropical rock stars with Colombian electro-cumbia legends.
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Watch Mickey 17, a sci-fi about an expendable crew member (Robert Pattinson) on a mission to colonise a new planet.
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And read about how China is managing to circumvent US chip bans.
MAP OF THE DAY
The world’s largest PDF over a map of Germany. (Credit: Alexrk2/NordNordWest, CC BY-SA 3.0)
Ever wondered how big you could get a PDF to be? Yeah, neither have we.
But according to an Adobe reference guide, the biggest PDF ever would be a square with 381km sides (aka 237.7mi) and a total surface area of 145,161 km2 (56,047 sq mi). That’s roughly the size of Iowa, or 40% of Germany (as above). In fact, if that PDF were a country, it’d be the 94th biggest in the world (and would now be copping reciprocal US tariffs).
But that’s not all. According to software developer Alex Chan, you can override Adobe’s size limits to create a PDF bigger than the universe. But the question, dear Intriguer, is why.
FRIDAY QUIZ
1) Which country has the highest average elevation? |
2) How high above sea level is the Maldives, the country with the world's lowest average elevation? |
3) How far apart are the closest islands between Russia and the US |
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Disclaimer
Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd.