🌍 Highlights from the Xiangshan security forum

Hi there Intriguer. Today’s word of the day is ‘jaysus’. It’s used in Indonesia to describe an unfunny joke that’s told so badly, you actually laugh.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇨🇳 The Xiangshan security summit in China. 

• 🇶🇦 How Qatar became the world’s go-to mediator.

• ➕ Plus: Meta’s social media dominance, how the papers are covering a mob storming an airport in Russia, and an unexpected link between a world leader and Hollywood. 

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: The US military says it’ll start buying local seafood to supply its troops in Japan, to help offset China’s ban. Beijing banned the import of Japanese seafood following Tokyo’s release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima power plant earlier this year. 

2. 🇩🇪 Germany: Europe’s largest economy shrank slightly (0.1%) last quarter, raising concerns that Germany is heading towards a recession. The country’s export-heavy economy has struggled with energy volatility, stubbornly high inflation, and tepid global demand. 

3. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Authorities have arrested the opposition leader after mass protests rocked the capital with calls for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. Critics accuse Hasina, who’s been in power since 2009, of targeting her political opponents.

4. 🇵🇦 Panama: The government has announced a referendum on the future of the country’s vast Cobre Panama copper mine after days of mass protests. Discontent erupted after authorities renewed a Canadian mining giant’s licence, allegedly without proper scrutiny.

5. 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo: Leaders from countries home to the world’s biggest rainforests have met in Brazzaville to discuss defending their shared ecosystems. They agreed on a seven point plan, but fell short of any binding pact.

🇨🇳 China | Geopolitics

What happened at Xiangshan this week?

Military and other leaders from 90 countries will today wrap up three days of security talks in Beijing for this year’s annual Xiangshan Forum. Launched in 2006, this is the event’s first in-person iteration since before COVID.

Didn’t make it along? Here are some of the more intriguing moments: 

• 🤝 US-China: China’s decision to invite the US is a signal it’s open to re-engaging, after cutting military ties when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year. But top brass Zhang Youxia still took a veiled swipe at the US in his keynote address, claiming “certain countries keep stirring up trouble around the world”.

• 📢 Global Security Initiative (GSI): Beijing also promoted its GSI, which President Xi first announced last year. It’s still thin on details, but officials used the concept to highlight the US-led world order’s shortcomings, while packaging China’s wins (like its earlier brokering of Saudi-Iran ties) as representing a viable alternative.

• 🌎 And the main guest was Russian Defence Minister Shoigu (one of 22 defence ministers there), who accused the US of “steady escalation… fraught with catastrophic consequences”.

Intrigue's take: This kind of military diplomacy is on-brand for China:

• The event’s theme was ‘Common Security, Lasting Peace’, and

• Its guest list and program both emphasised the ‘Global South’.

It all sought to project China as a source of peace and stability. Meanwhile, nations with a different view of China (like the Philippines) opted to send a lower-level delegation, or just skipped the forum altogether.

Also worth noting: 

• Presidents Xi and Biden have reportedly agreed to meet in San Francisco next month. The two leaders last met in November 2022.

🎧 Intrigue Outloud

Need to catch Intrigue on the go? Intrigue Outloud is your favourite geopolitics newsletter delivered to your podcast app of choice, with extra insights from host Ethan Plotkin and Intrigue co-founder John Fowler.

On today's episode: Is Bangladesh’s democracy in danger?

📰 How newspapers covered…

A mob storming an airport in Russia’s Dagestan

Today’s newsletter is supported by: The Daily Upside

Market Update: Please Read

In this current market landscape, we all face a common challenge.

Many conventional financial news sources are driven by the pursuit of maximum clicks. Consequently, they resort to disingenuous headlines and fear-based tactics to meet their bottom line. In a new cycle filled with mundane headlines and shallow social media posts, it’s essential to seek out only the highest quality sources of information and analysis.

Fortunately, we’ve found one.

Meet The Daily Upside. Founded by a team of investment bankers, scholars, and journalists, this free business newsletter has a singular mission: to empower you with market intelligence and facilitate wealth creation.

Sent to your inbox before markets open, this free newsletter is a trove of concise insights, in-depth analysis, and a dose of wit, all aimed at making you a more well-rounded investor.

Join managing directors and principals at some of Wall Street’s largest institutions who read The Daily Upside every morning.

🇶🇦 Qatar | Geopolitics

Qatar steps into the diplomatic void

Qatar has emerged as the lead intermediary between Israel and Hamas.

Doha’s ties to Hamas run deep: it’s hosted the group’s political leadership since 2012 and (with Israeli agreement) has long transferred $30M to Gaza each month, which it says goes to humanitarian and administrative activities.

But Qatar also has solid links with the West: the US declared it a ‘major non-NATO ally’ last year. Plus Doha has maintained contact (if not formal ties) with Israel since the 1990s.

Intrigue’s take: Qatar is not exactly neutral here; it held Israel “solely responsible” for the Hamas attacks on October 7th.

But intriguingly, Israel’s own national security advisor is now describing Qatar as “essential” and “crucial”.

So Qatar will have questions to answer after the war – like the nature of its support for Hamas, and the tenor of its state-funded broadcaster’s coverage – but for now, the region needs an intermediary. And Qatar is it.

Also worth noting: 

• Israel’s spy chief was in Qatar over the weekend to discuss ways to secure the release of the ~235 hostages held by Hamas.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what folks around the world have been tweeting about

• 🇨🇦 Canadians were posting about the late Friends star “Matthew Perry”, who was a childhood classmate of Prime Minister Trudeau.

• 🇨🇴 Colombians were using “#Diaz” for Luis Diaz, a Liverpool footballer whose parents were kidnapped near the Venezuelan border.

• 🇺🇸 And Americans tweeted about “UAW”, the autoworker union that reached a tentative deal with General Motors after a six-week strike.

🗳️ Poll time!

📊 Chart of the day

Meta seems to be crushing the social media game. The tech giant, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and more, says 3.88 billion people (or half the world’s population) use at least one of its products each month.

Yesterday’s poll: Kenya has announced it'll allow visa-free arrivals for all African citizens. Do you think this is a model worth following elsewhere in the world?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 Yes, it'll promote tourism and business (56%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👎 No, border control goes to the heart of national sovereignty (41%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 A.W: “A positive move, reduce paperwork, encourage trade, build strong cross border bonds.”

• ✍️ J.B: “It depends on location. In an area with high levels of unrest, it can make it easier for that unrest to spread.”