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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Israel hits Iran |
2️⃣ Congress to vote on major defence aid bills |
3️⃣ Photo of the year |
Hi Intriguer. There’s a meme doing the rounds right now that really captures the spirit of our times. For those not on Twitter, let me be ‘that guy‘ who tries to explain the joke: it shows an unshaven Ben Affleck, cigarette in hand, and a look of raw exhaustion on his face.
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The caption? “Millennials preparing for the 37th once-in-a-lifetime event in the last 5 years”.
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As you’ll see in today’s briefing, we might’ve just seen our once-in-a-lifetime event #38 (Israel’s strikes on Iran overnight), while #39 (a key Congressional vote on US military assistance) is likely coming this weekend.
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PS – We just caught up with friend and exiled Hong Kong democracy leader Nate Law. Our chat with Nate will hit inboxes this weekend, for anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two friends (using your unique referral code down below).
THE HEADLINES
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Israel hits back at Iran.
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Five days after Iran’s own retaliatory attack, Israel has now hit back just a few hours ago. Here’s what we ✌️know✌️ at time of writing:
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Israel fired at targets in Iran and Syria earlier this morning (Friday, which also happens to be the Iranian Supreme Leader’s 85th birthday).
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Israeli media outlets say Israel isn’t claiming responsibility “for strategic reasons”, though Western outlets are confirming Israel’s involvement, citing official US and Israeli sources. US officials say Washington wasn’t involved, though did receive a heads-up.
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The target in Iran was an airbase near Isfahan, while the target in Syria was an air defence unit. The UN’s nuclear watchdog says Iran’s nuclear sites weren’t hit (nor were they targeted, it seems). Iranian officials also claim they thwarted another attack north in Tabriz.
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Initial Iranian responses are all emphasising that the attack
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didn’t use missiles (though despite reports of drones, the exact weapon remains unclear)
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it had “failed” and was thwarted by Iranian air defences
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it may have been an “infiltration” rather than an “external attack”, and
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Iran therefore has no plans for immediate retaliation.
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Likewise, US and Israeli officials are variously describing the attack as “limited”, while a hard-line Israeli minister tweeted a single word that could be translated as “lame” or “weak”.
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Oil and gold prices both initially spiked, though have since stabilised.
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Intrigue’s quick take:
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This attack is probably a little more than what Israel’s allies wanted, but much less than what they feared. And Iran’s initial responses – from dismissal to denial – all look like classic downplaying, carving out space for possible de-escalation.
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India’s (lengthy) elections are underway.
Some 970 million folks in India are (from today) now eligible to cast their votes over the next six weeks. It’s less a question of who’ll win (the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi), and more what his margin will be, plus where he’ll take India next. We’ll share a special edition on those questions in the weeks ahead.
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US blocks vote on Palestinian UN membership.
The US has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that called on the General Assembly to vote on elevating Palestine from ‘permanent observer state’ to a full UN member. The UK and Switzerland abstained, while the remaining 12 members voted in favour. The US said: “This vote does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood, but instead is an acknowledgement that it will only come from direct negotiations between the parties.”
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Apple removes apps from China.
Apple has removed WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store in China after a request from the country’s internet watchdog, citing national security concerns.
TOP STORY
US allies hold breath as House readies vote on security assistance bills
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
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After months of deadlock, US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson says he’ll bring a key $95B military aid package to a vote as soon as tomorrow (Saturday).
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The package, which contains support for Ukraine, Israel, and US allies in the Indo-Pacific, will be split into separate bills in an attempt to overcome stiff opposition from hard-line members of Johnson’s own Republican Party.
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This package has had a rough ride. To date, the US has helped Ukraine defend itself in two main ways:
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President Biden has used the presidential drawdown authority to ship existing US military stockpiles to Ukraine, and
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The Pentagon has used its Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) to buy new defence kit for Ukraine from US manufacturers.
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Both options were tapped out by the end of 2023, so it was up to Congress to authorise more funding. And that’s when tensions bubbled over.
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Proponents argue that, for <3% of annual US defence spending, the US is blunting an autocrat’s attempt at conquest, rebuilding its own defence industrial base, and signalling strength to allies and foes alike, without risking US lives.
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Opponents, in turn, have questioned the scale of US support, the degree of US oversight, and the underfunding of other priorities at home, particularly in response to a recent surge of irregular migration across the southern border.
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Still, the Democrat-led Senate went on to pass a joint bill in February with 70% bipartisan support, including assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
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But that bill never made it to the floor of the Republican-controlled House, where hard-line members of Johnson’s own party have threatened to oust him as Speaker if he brings the Ukraine component to a vote.
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So, what changed? Iran’s weekend attack on Israel, plus downbeat reports (and classified briefings) on Ukraine, added a renewed sense of urgency.
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Johnson will now roll the dice, hoping to assuage hard-liners by letting the Ukraine package stand on its own – it mostly replicates the Senate bill, though $9B of the $60B for Ukraine would now be “forgivable loans” (rather than grants).
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Johnson is also introducing sweeteners, including a fourth bill to sanction Iran and fast-track efforts to cleave TikTok from Beijing, plus a separate border bill.
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What’s next? The Republican Party has a razor thin majority in the House, and several of its own lawmakers have already pledged to oppose the Ukraine component. So Johnson will have to rely on Democrat support.
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DC is now rife with number-crunching, and there’s still scope for more surprises but, for example, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee says he believes the four bills will pass.
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If that happens, Johnson has committed to sending all four bills as a single package back to the Senate for final passage. There’s broad support for the package in the Senate, though still the potential for delays, debate over Israel, and the possibility of more amendments sending us back to the House again.
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For his part, President Biden has used an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal to urge speedy approval: “Now is not the time to abandon our friends. The House must pass urgent national-security legislation for Ukraine and Israel, as well as desperately needed humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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We can see several possible paths ahead. Here are two:
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The CIA director just said Ukraine could face total defeat by the end of this year, as its air defence and shell stocks dwindle. If that happens, we’d be left with an emboldened autocrat in Moscow, galvanised rivals in Tehran, Pyongyang, and Beijing, and jittery US allies all around the world. That kind of world leaves the US with fewer (and costlier) options.
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Or, the US could help Ukraine defend itself, ratchet up the war’s already staggering costs on Russia, allow Europe’s defence industrial base time to revive, and leave a mostly free Ukraine (rather than occupying Russia) along NATO’s border, while spooked autocrats elsewhere re-think whether they can fare any better against determined resistance and 3% of US annual defence spending.
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Also worth noting:
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The proposed $95B in combined security assistance includes $60B for Ukraine, $26B for Israel ($4B of which is to replenish Israeli air defences), and $8B for partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific ($2B of which is for Taiwan).
INTERNATIONAL INTRIGUE IRL 💡
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One of the best parts of this Intrigue journey has been getting to know you! So as a thank you, we’d love to invite you to meet the Intrigue team for a reception on Wednesday, April 24, at 6:00 PM ET in D.C.
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It’s a chance to enjoy International Intrigue IRL, sip a few drinks with fellow Intriguers, and hear from spy-turned-bestselling-author, Jack Beaumont. Can’t wait to see you all there!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: China’s foreign ministry has issued a warning against the upcoming US-Philippines joint maritime drills, saying they’ll “lead to greater insecurity” in the region. The exercises will be the first ever held outside Manila’s territorial waters in the South China Sea, and will involve 16,700 personnel.
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🇩🇪 Germany: Two men with dual German-Russian nationality have been arrested in Germany on suspicion of espionage. The suspects allegedly scouted local US military facilities and plotted to commit arson as well as an attack with explosives.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: Apple CEO Tim Cook has promised to “look at” establishing a manufacturing plant in Indonesia as the US tech giant seeks ways to further diversify its manufacturing beyond China. The CEO was also in Vietnam earlier this week, where Apple already has a growing presence.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Six people have been arrested in connection to Canada’s biggest gold heist, when 6,600 gold bars (worth $15M) and $2m in cash were stolen from Toronto’s main airport. The gold was allegedly melted and used to fund an illegal weapons trafficking ring in Canada.
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🇶🇦 Qatar: Qatar’s prime minister says his country is reassessing its role as mediator between Hamas and Israel following comments by a US lawmaker that accused the country of “siding with Hamas”. Qatar has hosted the Hamas political leadership since 2012, and just agreed to host the large US military presence there for another decade.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue if you find yourself in 🇹🇼 Taipei
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Explore: Hit the road and visit the nearby mountain village of Jiufen, famous for its narrow alleyway lined with food stalls, tea houses, and pottery stores.
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Learn: The National Palace Museum is not only Insta-famous for its jade pork, but also its world-class Chinese art, much of which was smuggled out from the mainland during China’s civil war.
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Eat: Famed for its sheng jian bao (pan-fried pork buns), Kao Ji was reportedly popular with early Kuomintang leaders from the mainland, before the eatery opened its first full restaurant in 1969.
PHOTO OF THE YEAR
Photograph: Lee-Ann Olwage
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This year’s prestigious World Press Photo winners just dropped, taking top honours out of 61,062 entries from 130 countries. One of the four winners was Lee-Ann Olwage of South Africa, whose photos tell the story of ‘Dada Paul’ – he’s lived with dementia for 11 years and is pictured above getting ready for church in Madagascar with his granddaughter, Odliatemex.
FRIDAY QUIZ
1) What animal did the leader of Turkmenistan gift Putin for his 65th birthday in 2017? |
2) Which of the following US Presidents owned a parrot that had to be removed from his funeral due to it screaming obscenities? |
3) When did China send the US its first panda as a diplomatic gift? |