🌍 India and Russia discuss trade pact

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Hi there Intriguer. Where would you hide $3.4 billion? Well, convicted fraudster James Zhong wasn’t taking any chances when he hid $3.4 billion worth of bitcoin in a Cheetos tin. What flavour Cheetos, you ask? For maximum security, he opted for Flamin’ Hot and Cheddar.

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Today’s briefing is a 4.0 min read:

• 🇮🇳 Everyone wants a piece of India.

• 🇩🇪 Germany shutters its last nuclear reactors.

• ➕ Plus: Kenyans dominate the world’s oldest marathon, how the papers are covering the ongoing fighting in Sudan, and what happens when you kill your king.

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¿Hablas español? ­¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was targeted in a pipe bomb attack on Saturday. He was unharmed and has pledged to heighten security ahead of this year’s G7 meetings in Japan.

2. 🇪🇺 EU: Brussels has criticised Poland and Hungary’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports, arguing only the EU can take such action. Poland and Hungary insist such a ban is needed to stop their markets from being flooded by cheap Ukrainian grain.

3. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam over the weekend, as the two countries seek to balance China in the region. Vietnam will soon receive a third Coast Guard vessel from the US.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: A court has ordered former president Jair Bolsonaro to testify on his role in January’s storming of Brazil’s congress. Critics accuse him of encouraging his supporters to riot, something the former president denies.

5. 🇮🇷 Iran: Ten people have received (relatively short) prison sentences over the downing of a Ukraine International Airlines flight in January 2020. Iranian authorities initially denied involvement, but later admitted to the “disastrous mistake” that killed all 176 people on board.

🇮🇳 INDIA | GEOPOLITICS

Russia and India resume free trade talks

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Briefly: Russia and India have resumed free trade discussions after initial talks were delayed by Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy PM made the announcement while visiting Delhi yesterday (Monday).

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Even without a free trade agreement (FTA), India-Russia trade is flourishing. Russia’s exports to India have quadrupled since the West sanctioned Moscow last year. India now imports half its oil from Russia, up from 1% before the war.

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And Russia isn’t the only one hoping to ink an FTA with India. Others are also lining up, as India surpasses China to become the world’s most populous country.

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Intrigue’s take: This all begs two questions: first, why is India doing FTAs now, after years of showing less enthusiasm than a dad at a Wiggles concert? Well… India’s now stronger, its industry more competitive, and the world more eager to hedge on China. And that all puts Delhi in a better negotiating position.

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But second, why would India deal with a pariah like Russia? Well… India’s now more confident, and clearly thinks the benefits of ties with Russia (cheap oil, a stable border, and a hedge against China) outweigh the costs (Western criticism).

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Also worth noting:

• According to a State Bank of India report, India will be the world’s third largest economy by 2029, up from the tenth slot in 2014.

• A US official said the US won’t look to sanction India for buying Russian oil, as India is one of its “most consequential relationships.”

📰 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

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How different newspapers covered: The ongoing fighting between two rival factions in Sudan.

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Links: Bangkok Post, Daily News Egypt, Al Jazeera.

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Today’s briefing is sponsored by Policyware

Become an expert by learning from one, and even get your job to pay for it.

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Gustafsson-Wright’s previous professional experience includes working at the World Bank, the UNICEF Innocenti Research Center, and as Senior Researcher with the Amsterdam Institute for International Development (AIID).

• In this course, you can learn at your own pace with both live and recorded lecture options.

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🇩🇪 GERMANY | ENERGY

Germany says tschüss to nuclear energy

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Briefly: Germany switched off its three remaining nuclear power plants on Saturday. The reactors were already living on borrowed time after being granted a three-month extension in December to see Germany through the winter.

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Berlin made the decision to abandon nuclear in 2011 after Japan’s Fukushima disaster, but a decade and a war later, many now think this was near-sighted.

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A recent poll suggests two thirds of Germans oppose the closing down of the remaining nuclear power plants, at least in the short term.

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Intrigue’s take: Germany may be in good company: nuclear’s share of global electricity production has been steadily declining for the past two decades, as other low-carbon energy sources become cheaper.

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But in parallel, several of Germany’s neighbours – spooked by the Russo-Ukraine War – are actually looking to add more nuclear power to their energy mix, as a means to pursue both climate and energy security goals.

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Also worth noting:

• In 2022, renewables accounted for about 44% of Germany’s electricity production, with coal supplying an additional 30%.

• Energy ministers from the UK, US, Canada, Japan and France agreed on Monday to cooperate to “undermine Russia’s grip” on the global supply of nuclear fuel.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

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We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• What happens when you kill your king?

• Northern Ireland’s schools are still deeply divided

• Somalia rebuilds: ‘the glass is now half-full’

• Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naive ($)

• The Taliban are better bureaucrats than they seem ($)

📸 PHOTO OF THE DAY

Obiri and Chebet finished first in their respective categories. Credits: WCVB.

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Hellen Obiri and Evans Chebet, both from Kenya, took gold in the women’s and men’s heat at a rainy Boston Marathon on Monday. Obiri ran the race, the world’s oldest, in 2:21:38 (3:22 minutes/km) while two-time winner Chebet clocked in at a brisk 2:05:04 (2:59 minutes/km).

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Where is India’s foreign policy headed?

👈 West (towards the US) 👆 North (towards Russia) 👉 East (towards China) 🧭 Everywhere (it’s now a multipolar world) ✍️ Other (write in!)

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

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Yesterday’s poll: How do you think the West should approach North Korea and its advancing weapons program?

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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 More sanctions (20%)

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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🎤 Negotiations should be resumed (32%)

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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✋ Nothing, the current approach is fine (11%)

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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇨🇳 Pressure China to take more action (33%)

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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

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Your two cents:

• ✋ L.N.K: “Pressuring China will not get us anywhere and more likely cause more conflict. However, not legitimizing Kim Jong-un’s nuclear grandstanding by withholding large scale reaction is the best way to disempower the dictator. It severely weakens his foundational myth that the US & the West is out to get him.”

• 🇨🇳 S.B: “Not wanting North Korea to advance its weapons program is one of the few goals still shared by the West and China.”

• ✍️ T: “Give up.”