🌍 India and Russia discuss trade pact

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was targeted in a pipe bomb attack on Saturday. He was unharmed and has pledged to heighten security ahead of this year’s G7 meetings in Japan.

2. 🇪🇺 EU: Brussels has criticised Poland and Hungary’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports, arguing only the EU can take such action. Poland and Hungary insist such a ban is needed to stop their markets from being flooded by cheap Ukrainian grain.

3. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam over the weekend, as the two countries seek to balance China in the region. Vietnam will soon receive a third Coast Guard vessel from the US.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: A court has ordered former president Jair Bolsonaro to testify on his role in January’s storming of Brazil’s congress. Critics accuse him of encouraging his supporters to riot, something the former president denies.

5. 🇮🇷 Iran: Ten people have received (relatively short) prison sentences over the downing of a Ukraine International Airlines flight in January 2020. Iranian authorities initially denied involvement, but later admitted to the “disastrous mistake” that killed all 176 people on board.

🇮🇳 INDIA | GEOPOLITICS

Russia and India resume free trade talks

Briefly: Russia and India have resumed free trade discussions after initial talks were delayed by Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy PM made the announcement while visiting Delhi yesterday (Monday).

Even without a free trade agreement (FTA), India-Russia trade is flourishing. Russia’s exports to India have quadrupled since the West sanctioned Moscow last year. India now imports half its oil from Russia, up from 1% before the war.

And Russia isn’t the only one hoping to ink an FTA with India. Others are also lining up, as India surpasses China to become the world’s most populous country.

Intrigue’s take: This all begs two questions: first, why is India doing FTAs now, after years of showing less enthusiasm than a dad at a Wiggles concert? Well… India’s now stronger, its industry more competitive, and the world more eager to hedge on China. And that all puts Delhi in a better negotiating position.

But second, why would India deal with a pariah like Russia? Well… India’s now more confident, and clearly thinks the benefits of ties with Russia (cheap oil, a stable border, and a hedge against China) outweigh the costs (Western criticism).

Also worth noting:

• According to a State Bank of India report, India will be the world’s third largest economy by 2029, up from the tenth slot in 2014.

• A US official said the US won’t look to sanction India for buying Russian oil, as India is one of its “most consequential relationships.”

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Policyware

🇩🇪 GERMANY | ENERGY

Germany says tschüss to nuclear energy

Briefly: Germany switched off its three remaining nuclear power plants on Saturday. The reactors were already living on borrowed time after being granted a three-month extension in December to see Germany through the winter.

Berlin made the decision to abandon nuclear in 2011 after Japan’s Fukushima disaster, but a decade and a war later, many now think this was near-sighted.

A recent poll suggests two thirds of Germans oppose the closing down of the remaining nuclear power plants, at least in the short term.

Intrigue’s take: Germany may be in good company: nuclear’s share of global electricity production has been steadily declining for the past two decades, as other low-carbon energy sources become cheaper.

But in parallel, several of Germany’s neighbours – spooked by the Russo-Ukraine War – are actually looking to add more nuclear power to their energy mix, as a means to pursue both climate and energy security goals.

Also worth noting:

• In 2022, renewables accounted for about 44% of Germany’s electricity production, with coal supplying an additional 30%.

• Energy ministers from the UK, US, Canada, Japan and France agreed on Monday to cooperate to “undermine Russia’s grip” on the global supply of nuclear fuel.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

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• Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naive ($)

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📸 PHOTO OF THE DAY

Hellen Obiri and Evans Chebet, both from Kenya, took gold in the women’s and men’s heat at a rainy Boston Marathon on Monday. Obiri ran the race, the world’s oldest, in 2:21:38 (3:22 minutes/km) while two-time winner Chebet clocked in at a brisk 2:05:04 (2:59 minutes/km).

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: How do you think the West should approach North Korea and its advancing weapons program?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 More sanctions (20%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🎤 Negotiations should be resumed (32%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✋ Nothing, the current approach is fine (11%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇨🇳 Pressure China to take more action (33%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• ✋ L.N.K: “Pressuring China will not get us anywhere and more likely cause more conflict. However, not legitimizing Kim Jong-un's nuclear grandstanding by withholding large scale reaction is the best way to disempower the dictator. It severely weakens his foundational myth that the US & the West is out to get him.”

• 🇨🇳 S.B: “Not wanting North Korea to advance its weapons program is one of the few goals still shared by the West and China.”

• ✍️ T: “Give up.”