Plus: Photo of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The death of Iran’s president – what’s next? |
2️⃣ Americans in an attempted Congo coup? |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The aviation era has brought world leaders together, but yes, it’s also downed a few along the way: from Sweden’s prime minister in 1936 and the UN chief in 1961, through to China’s infamous Lin Biao incident of 1971, and the crash that took Poland’s president in 2010.
Some of those events are still debated years later, so it’s any wonder why Kim Jong-Un prefers an armoured train.
Today, the world is waking up to the news that Iran’s president and foreign minister have died in a helicopter crash, setting off a likely internal power struggle as the regime confronts its most tumultuous period in decades.
New Taiwan president sworn in.
Former vice president Lai Ching-te has kicked off his term as Taiwan’s new president today (Monday). During his inauguration speech, he urged China “to cease their political and military intimidation against Taiwan”, but rather choose “dialogue over confrontation”. A handful of world leaders still recognising Taiwan attended the ceremony, including from Belize, Eswatini, Paraguay, and Tuvalu.
Israeli war cabinet split deepens.
Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz has now threatened to resign if Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t come up with a post-war plan for Gaza before June 8. Netanyahu has dismissed Gantz’s comments as “washed-up words”.
Ukraine hits Crimea.
Ukraine struck several Russian targets in occupied Crimea – plus key oil facilities in southwest Russia – over the weekend. Meanwhile, Russian forces are still pushing ahead in Ukraine’s north, despite President Putin insisting he’s not attempting to recapture Kharkiv but merely establishing a buffer zone.
Nickel prices jump on New Caledonia unrest.
The price of nickel has reached an eight-month high as unrest rocks the world’s third-largest producer of the metal (used in EVs). Six people have died, and France has deployed hundreds of extra police to its island territory.
MBS postpones Japan trip over king’s health.
Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has postponed his trip to Japan over the deteriorating health of his father, King Salman Bin Abdulaziz. The prince is next in line for the throne but already runs the country in practice. Oil prices have still jumped on the news.
Dominican Republic president claims re-election victory.
President Luis Abinader has declared victory after elections yesterday (Sunday). He’s one of the most popular leaders in the Americas, thanks to his strict immigration policies on neighbouring Haiti plus an anti-corruption crackdown.
TOP STORY
Iran’s president and foreign minister dead in helicopter crash
The president’s helicopter went down in Iran’s mountainous northwest, near Azerbaijan. Inset: Early images of the wreckage.
Iran's president died in a helicopter crash yesterday (Sunday) afternoon, opening up an internal power struggle at a tumultuous time for the country.
Embrahim Raisi, 63, had just been with the president of neighbouring Azerbaijan, cutting the ribbon at a dam along their border. It was part of their broader effort to calm tensions (Iran's arch-rival Israel has cultivated close ties with the Azeris).
The president’s chopper appears to have then crashed during the return journey, killing ~nine passengers including Iran's foreign minister and a regional governor.
What caused the crash?
Ordinarily, the cause would be (and probably still is) obvious: the president was flying in a 45-year-old helicopter through mountains and heavy fog. Sanctions mean Iran hasn’t replaced or fully maintained much of its fleet for decades.
But these aren't ordinary times, Iran is no ordinary place, and Raisi is no ordinary president.
The times: The decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel has recently exploded into plain view, and Iran’s long-time foes (the Saudis, the US, and Israel) continue to explore a pact to counter Iran.
The place: Iran’s economy is groaning under Western sanctions, ISIS has carried out deadly terrorist attacks there, and unrest again rocked the country in 2022-23, with a subsequent crackdown killing many hundreds of protestors (at least).
The president: Much of the blame for all this lands on Raisi, whether from an angry population or fellow hardliners convinced he's inept. He ✌️won✌️ the 2021 elections with record-low turnout, after the Supreme Leader barred his rivals.
That same top ruler (Ayatollah Khamenei) also parachuted Raisi into his last job as head of Iran’s judiciary in 2019. His meteoric rise hasn’t been because Raisi is brilliant, but because he’s loyal: he was one of four members of Iran’s infamous ‘death commission’ that executed thousands of political prisoners in 1988.
And that all partly explains some of the reported local reactions to date, ranging from hardliners in prayer, to fireworks in the skies, to jokes circulating online.
It’s also partly why some state outlets still refer to Raisi's death as an "incident" rather than an “accident”, leaving it open for Tehran to blame someone – presumably Israel or the US, though Iranians know Raisi had plenty of enemies.
So now what?
In a regime like Iran’s, there will be power struggles. The first is to replace Raisi as president – the constitution requires an election within 50 days, with establishment figures like the current speaker (Ghalibaf) likely to have a go. It really depends on who the Supreme Leader allows to run.
And that takes us to the bigger struggle over who will replace Iran’s Supreme Leader: he's 85 and is rumoured to (again) have cancer. Iran has only ever replaced its Supreme Leader once in 1989, and it didn't go smoothly.
So, there are no certainties, but two names have been circulating: one was Raisi.
The other is actually one of the Supreme Leader's sons: the 54-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, who's a mid-ranking cleric with hardly any public profile, working mostly as an aide to his father.
The son’s ascension would leave Iran looking quite a bit like a monarchy, which is exactly what the Islamic Revolution toppled in the first place. And that’d leave the regime with even less popular legitimacy than it enjoys now.
So for now, this power struggle will play out among fellow hardliners. And unless something in the regime itself snaps, the end result is unlikely to be any imminent change in the way Iran approaches its neighbours or the world.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So will something snap? That’s impossible to know, but the regime’s many foes at home and abroad will see this power transition as an opportunity to shape events in their favour. In the meantime, here are a few observations:
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First, losing your own president, on your own soil, for most of a day, projects neither strength nor competence
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Second, later-stage autocracies are often tempted to double-down on control during times of crisis, further eroding their legitimacy and accelerating their decline, and
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Third, zooming out: as tensions spike everywhere, we’re seeing paranoid regimes appoint more leaders based on loyalty rather than competence, which ultimately increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation both at home and abroad.
Also worth noting:
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Raisi was under US sanctions, including for his role in Iran’s mass executions of 1988.
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He died with his foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, a career diplomat who spearheaded Iran’s reconciliation with the Saudis last year (brokered by China). A contender to replace him as FM is Baqeri Kani, his deputy who led last year’s prisoner deal with the US. Kani’s brother is married to one of the Supreme Leader’s daughters.
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Hamas, which has long benefited from Iran’s backing, has reportedly expressed “sadness and pain” over this “grave accident”. In Raisi’s final comments with his Azeri counterpart, he said “the Iranian and Azerbaijani nations have no doubts in their support for the Palestinian people and their hatred towards the Zionist regime [ie, Israel]”.
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The oil market has shrugged off the president’s death, suggesting an expectation that any power struggle won’t impact global supply.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇫 Afghanistan: Kabul has lost its voting rights at the UN after failing to pay $9M in membership dues since the Taliban takeover in 2021. The current Afghan mission at the UN is a remnant of the previous Western-backed government and doesn’t answer to the Taliban.
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🇪🇸 Spain: The leaders of Argentina, Hungary, and Italy have addressed a rally in Madrid held by Spain’s right-leaning Vox party, as it seeks to ride a populist wave ahead of next month’s European elections. Spain has recalled its ambassador from Buenos Aires, after the president of Argentina described Spain’s first lady as “corrupt” during his remarks.
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🇻🇳 Vietnam: To Lam, the former minister for public security, has now been appointed Vietnam’s new president, months after his predecessor stepped down amid a corruption probe overseen by Lam himself. Vietnam has now had three presidents in a little over two years.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: BRICS countries have pledged $1B to help Brazil’s southern state deal with the aftermath of devastating floods that have killed 149 and displaced over half a million people. The state of Rio Grande do Sul produces 70% of Brazilian rice and is the country’s second-largest source of soybeans (Brazil’s top export).
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🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The Congolese army says it quashed an attempted coup by domestic and foreign fighters yesterday (Sunday) after reports emerged of gunmen attacking the president’s residence and office. Details are still emerging, but the US ambassador tweeted she was “very concerned by reports of American citizens allegedly involved.”
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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An Indiana judge has ruled that tacos and burritos qualify as sandwiches.
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Google has accidentally deleted the cloud of a $125B pension fund in Australia.
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A Canadian man has smashed the record for the fastest-ever Millennium Falcon Lego build, assembling the Star Wars set in a brisk 7 hours and 36 minutes.
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A raccoon has shown some nimble footwork in Pennsylvania, bursting onto the field at a Philadelphia v NYC soccer match and leading breathless marshals on a wild uhm… raccoon chase.
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The French post office is now issuing a scratch-and-sniff baguette stamp.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credits: Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation / via Reuters.
Is there anything more awe (and fear)-inspiring than a volcanic eruption? The only correct answer is a volcanic eruption in the middle of a lightning storm.
Locals took this stunning shot on the remote Indonesian island of Halmahera after a volcano there erupted over the weekend, forcing people living in seven nearby villages to evacuate.
DAILY POLL
What do you think the death of Iran's president means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Under which circumstances would you be ok with a court regulating online content?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🪖 National security (26%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🥷 Privacy (11%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🗡️ Violent or exploitative content (42%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ❌ Under no circumstances (19%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🗡️ M.G: “Other options remain for dealing with privacy or national security issues, but promoting violent content or actions require timely intervention that only courts can provide.”
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🪖 D.G: “LITERAL national security, not as a blanket excuse!”
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❌ S.P: “Any exception is in the eye of the beholder, and the exception may swallow free speech.”
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