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Todayโs newsletter supported by: |
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Hi there Intriguer.ย There’s a New Mexico in Australia, a New Australia in Paraguay, a New Paraguay in Colombia, and to complete the circleโฆ thereโs a New Colombia in Mexico. Maybe everyone should just chill?
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Todayโs briefing is a 4 min read:
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โ๏ธ Is another war brewing in the Caucasus?ย
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๐ข๏ธ Chevron is still betting big on oil.
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โ Plus: The World Bank talks defence, how the papers are covering the upcoming US visit by Chinaโs foreign minister, and is the crypto winter over?
โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds
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๐จ๐ณย China: Beijing has opened a tax investigation into Taiwanese tech manufacturer Foxconn, one of Chinaโs biggest employers and the single largest maker of iPhones worldwide. Foxconn founder Terry Gou is running for Taiwanโs presidency in January.
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๐ซ๐ทย France: President Macron has travelled to Israel to meet Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. Macron expressed Franceโs solidarity with Israel and called for the โdecisive relaunchโ of a genuine peace process.
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๐ฑ๐ฐย Sri Lanka: Colombo has approved visa-free visits for citizens from six countries including China, India, Russia and Japan. The idea is to boost the islandโs ailing economy via tourism.
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๐ฒ๐ฝย Mexico: A tropical storm has strengthened suddenly into the โcatastrophic’โ Cat-5 Hurricane Otis, expected to make landfall near Acapulco this morning (Wednesday). This would be the first major hurricane to hit the resort city, home to a million people.
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๐น๐ทย Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan has submitted Swedenโs NATO accession bid to parliament for ratification after months of uncertainty and negotiations. It remains unclear when exactly Turkish lawmakers will vote on the bill.
โ๏ธ Caucasus | Defence & Security
Azerbaijan may be seeking to connect its territory (orange)
Is Azerbaijan preparing to invade Armenia?
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Thousands of Azerbaijani and Turkish soldiers participated in military drills this week in locations across Azerbaijan, including in the newly seized territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Azerbaijan took Nagorno-Karabakh in a lightning 24-hour offensive last month, decades after the majority-Armenian enclave unilaterally declared independence, and months after Baku imposed a total siege around it.
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More than 100,000 resident ethnic Armenians have since fled to Armenia.
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Now, some warn this weekโs exercises could be a prelude to further conquest. Expansionist politicians in Azerbaijan (including President Ilham Aliyev) have long eyed a land bridge to Nakhchivan, an exclave separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armeniaโs 30km-wide Syunik Province.
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So on Monday, the foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Russia met their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts for peace talks in Tehran, โwithout the presence of foreignersโ (i.e., without US or EU officials).
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Meanwhile, Western players like France have been selling Armenia additional military kit, while the US has conducted (small) drills with Armenian troops – all part of an effort to deter another Azerbaijani move.
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Intrigueโs take: Armenia is now isolated. Itโs wedged between two foes (Azerbaijan and Turkey), its traditional security guarantor (Russia) is bogged down, and Western support for Armenia has seemed pretty symbolic to date.
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An invasion could be unimaginably ugly. Yet regular readers will know by now: in this world of ours, we increasingly need to imagine the unimaginable.
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Also worth noting:
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The US and Europe have yet to issue sanctions on Azerbaijan for its seizure of Karabakh. Thereโs speculation this is partly due to Azerbaijanโs leverage as a major gas exporter.
๐ฐ How newspapers coveredโฆ
The upcoming US visit by Chinaโs foreign minister
Noida, India |
โChinese FM Wang Yi to visit US this week for high-level talks ahead of likely Biden-Xi meetingโ |
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โWangโs trip to US โcrucialโ, to pave the way for higher-level of interactionsโ |
Washington DC, US |
โChinaโs top diplomat to visit D.C. amid tensions over South China Sea, Israelโ |
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Todayโs newsletter is supported by: DoorDash
Restaurants and more, delivered to your door
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DoorDash is the ultimate solution for all your food delivery needs. Whether you’re craving a late-night snack, a quick lunch, or a fancy dinner, DoorDash has you covered.
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With a vast selection of local restaurants and a seamless ordering process, DoorDash is the perfect way to enjoy your favorite meals from the comfort of your own home. So sit back, relax, and let DoorDash do the work for you.
๐ข๏ธ Chevron | Energy
Chevron acquires Guyana oil assets
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Chevron, Americaโs second-largest oil company, has announced itโs buying fellow US producer Hess for a cool $53B, the biggest deal in Chevron history.
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Whereโs the international intrigue?
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๐ข๏ธ This is yet another big bet on oil, shrugging off the International Energy Agencyโs recent forecasts that peak oil is on the horizon
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๐ค Itโs another sign the sector is consolidating, as more players struggle with higher interest rates and lower economies of scale, and
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๐ฌ๐พ Itโs another big bet on Guyana (where Hess has a stake), with the South American country discovering 11 billion barrels of oil and gas in the past decade.
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Intrigueโs take: Every past energy transition has been slow, uneven and contested. And weโve generally seen more of an energy addition rather than transition: oil and gas overtook coal six decades ago, yet coal consumption has since tripled.
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We say this not to claim how the world ought to be, but as a reminder of how it is. Speaking of which, thereโs evidence we donโt have a lot of time.
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Also worth noting:
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The IEA says about $2.8T will be invested in the global energy sector this year, with $1.7T going to clean tech and the remainder towards coal, oil and gas.
โ Extra Intrigue
What weโre reading about cryptocurrency:
๐ณ๏ธ Poll time!
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If you were the leader of your country, what % of GDP would you set apart for defence spending and why?The global average is currently 2.2%.
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๐ฌ Quote of the day
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World Bank President Ajay Banga dropped some knowledge at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh yesterday (Tuesday), and argued defence spending is now crowding out other global priorities. The data backs him up: total global defence spending increased by $2.2T to hit new records last year.
Yesterdayโs poll: Which infrastructure do you think is most vulnerable?
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฑ Tech hardware (5%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ป Tech software (28%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ โก Energy (39%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Transport (2%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฐ Water & sanitation (22%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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โก D: โWithout energy nothing else on this list functions.โ
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๐ป Z.W.O: โAs an AppSec consultant I say that almost anything can be attacked via software. And it does happen every day, hour and minute.โ