Plus: Parliament of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ A turning point in Sudan’s civil war? |
2️⃣ Europe’s new top stock |
3️⃣ Parliament of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Folks in the diplomatic corps come across all sorts of colourful characters throughout their careers. Some are utterly forgettable, whilst others are truly memorable (whether they mean to be or not).
One of the most memorable people I’ve met was a Sudanese diplomat who joined me on a ‘professional boot camp’ back in 2012 (that in itself is a story for another day). She had enough riz to charm even the dourest of bureaucrats, and dominated pub trivia.
I thought of her during today’s update on Sudan’s war, and how much these people-to-people links remain the connective tissue in diplomacy, in spite of all the tech advancements we’ve made.
PS — Curious how NATO’s northernmost member (Iceland) now views the world? Don’t miss our unfiltered chat with Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir, who’s just wrapped as foreign minister. It’s online, starting shortly — Friday, 9.30am ET. Join here!
Zelensky meets European leaders in Paris.
The UK and France have re-emerged as Ukraine’s most vocal backers, rejecting any sanctions relief for Russia and re-committing to the idea of a post-conflict “reassurance force”. Meanwhile, the US is again reportedly pushing for a more advantageous minerals and energy deal with Ukraine.
Putin talks Arctic.
Vladimir Putin has told a policy forum in Russia’s Arctic port of Murmansk not to dismiss Trump’s push for Greenland, while also carefully avoiding any criticism of the US president. Putin also noted Russia will increase its Arctic military capability.
Canada PM says era of close US ties now over.
Mark Carney has told reporters that Trump has permanently damaged US-Canada ties, adding his country will respond to Trump’s latest auto tariffs with unspecified trade actions, while looking to “pivot trade elsewhere”.
Xi welcomes foreign CEOs.
China’s leader has hosted foreign executives including the heads of FedEx, AstraZeneca, Blackstone, Saudi Aramco, BMW, Toyota, Maersk, Samsung, and more, exhorting them all not to “blindly follow actions that disrupt the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains”. It’s the third time Xi has met foreign CEOs in 17 months, as he seeks to boost foreign investment to support his cooling economy.
Magnitude 7.7 earthquake hits Myanmar.
Folks as far away as Thailand and China have felt tremors from Myanmar’s massive 7.7 magnitude quake, with early reports of damaged buildings and roads in Myanmar and Thailand.
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TOP STORY
Is Sudan’s civil war at a turning point?
L-R: The RSF’s Hemedti; the military’s al-Burhan.
Usually when we land at an airport, we ditch that flight mode, check what memes we missed, then shake our head disapprovingly when other passengers defy the captain and stand up before the little ‘bing’ seatbelt noise.
But not Sudan’s General al-Burhan. When he landed at Khartoum’s international airport on Wednesday, he stepped out of his chopper, kissed the ground, and raised his fist.
Why? His Sudanese armed forces had just recaptured that airport hours earlier from a rival militia known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after nearly two years of civil war.
The military and RSF used to be friends — the RSF emerged under Sudan’s ex-dictator (al-Bashir), out of groups that helped him terrorise Darfur during its 2000s rebellion.
By the time a popular uprising ousted Bashir in 2019, the military and RSF were frenemies, jointly toppling Sudan’s transition authority then signing an uneasy power-sharing pact.
But that imploded spectacularly in 2023, triggering a civil war that’s now left tens of thousands dead and more than 14 million (aka a Pennsylvania) displaced. All while the RSF likely committed genocide (again), with both sides also facing war crime allegations.
But this week could be a turning point.
While the RSF initially had the upper-hand, the military has now just about retaken the seat of Sudanese power and one of Africa’s biggest cities — that’s a big symbolic and strategic victory, with the international airport (though damaged) a real military asset.
But maybe more importantly, this triumph will also shape the calculations of all the outside players still competing for influence inside Sudan:
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🇦🇪 The Emiratis
While the UAE denies any role, there’s evidence suggesting it’s been sending weapons and other support to the RSF. The Gulf monarchy values Sudan’s a) mineral and agricultural wealth, and b) strategic location along the Red Sea.
But it’s also wary of its own regional frenemies getting too much influence in Sudan, like…
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🇸🇦 The Saudis
The Emiratis and Saudis have (with the Egyptians) been pretty tight the past decade, with shared goals to curb the influence of Iran and certain strains of political Islam, for example.
But lately, there’s been legit rivalry between them: they’re in open competition for hub status, they clash directly in OPEC, and now they back opposing sides in Sudan.
Plus, in addition to distrusting one another, they also distrust…
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🇪🇬 The Egyptians
Egypt is right next door to Sudan and has taken in ~800,000 refugees, so has a natural interest in ending this war — it’s led some of the diplomatic pushes accordingly.
But there’s more: President el-Sisi (a former general) is close with Sudan’s military, and he’s loathe to lose that influence to the Saudis (with whom he has a border dispute) or the Emiratis (who’ve gotten cosy with Egypt’s Ethiopian neighbours despite a Nile dispute).
So there’ve been reports Egypt has helped out Sudan’s army including by providing drones from Turkey (which likewise competes with the Emiratis and Saudis).
Still with us on this international chessboard? Good, because there’s also…
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🇷🇺 The Russians
Their rebadged Wagner mercenaries have long helped the RSF, with surface-to-air missiles, training, and even personnel. In return, Moscow gets access to Sudan’s gold.
Of course, that Russian presence then attracted Ukrainian special forces, who helped Sudan’s military run covert operations against the Russians. But it’s unclear how strong the Russian footprint still is at this stage.
Anyway, with so many players, you can see why Sudan’s peace has been so elusive.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As grimly intriguing as that chessboard above might appear, does it matter to the rest of the world? Sure. Beyond the stain on our collective conscience, here are two impacts:
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When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilised global wheat supplies, there were hopes Sudan’s vast agricultural potential could help cushion the blow. But Sudan’s own subsequent war soon left that idea a pipe-dream; and
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Sudan is also a top-ten gold producer, though most of that supply is controlled by the RSF, which has previously managed to offload it out via Emirati friends and onto global markets. So you might be wearing conflict gold.
By the way, does any of the above sound familiar? Yep, Intriguers will see echoes of the proxy games also playing out in Syria and the DR Congo. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum.
Also worth noting:
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The International Criminal Court issued warrants for the arrest of former dictator al-Bashir in 2009 and 2010, for genocide and crimes against humanity.
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Sudan’s military has held al-Bashir (81) in detention since his ouster. Authorities transferred him to a medical facility in Sudan’s north last year.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Thailand and China have kicked off joint naval training near China’s coast, the sixth such exercise between the two navies. It comes as the US defence secretary visits regional US allies Japan and the Philippines.
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🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina: A top Bosnian court has triggered Interpol arrest warrants for two leaders of Republika Srpska, the ethnically-Serbian half of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The pro-Russian Srpska leader has repeatedly called for the territory’s independence, fuelling fears of more conflict.
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🇸🇬 Singapore: The city-state’s foreign ministry has fired a senior official after a year-long investigation found he misused (and lied about) a diplomatic pouch to help a friend smuggle 21 luxury watches from China to Singapore. The (former) diplomat served a one-week jail sentence last month.
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🇺🇸 US: With a razor-thin majority in the House, Donald Trump has decided to pull his nomination for Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the UN. Taking up the appointment would’ve required her to vacate her seat in Congress, triggering a special election to replace her.
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🇮🇱 Israel: The government has passed legislation that’ll give politicians greater sway over judicial appointments. It’s part of a broader reform package that first triggered mass protests before the Hamas attacks in 2023.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Three stories we couldn’t squeeze in this week 👀
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A truth commission in South Korea has found that widespread malpractice took place in the country’s 1980s adoption program, in an acknowledgement that adoptees across the US and Europe have sought for decades.
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Apple CEO Tim Cook headed to Beijing this week for a visit packed with local Apple store appearances and talks with top officials (including the head honcho Xi Jinping), all chronicled via posts on Weibo.
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And German tech company SAP became the continent’s most valuable stock this week, snagging the title from Denmark’s Novo Nordisk.
PARLIAMENT OF THE DAY
New Zealand’s Parliamentary Library. Credits: Kerryn Pollok/Heritage New Zealand.
Lots of legislatures offer tours to connect citizens with their democratic processes and/or wow foreigners with some sweet sweet architecture.
But New Zealand’s parliament is going with a new tactic: fear.
Every Thursday evening it offers spooky tours featuring some of its darker anecdotes, particularly in its 1899-era library, which has survived fires, a flood, and even a colony of feral cats.
FRIDAY QUIZ
Greece celebrated its Independence Day earlier this week (25 March).
1) What is the highest mountain in Greece? |
2) Who was the chief deity in the Greek pantheon? |
3) When did modern Greece declare independence? |
✍️ Corrections corner
We were delighted to hear overnight from Intriguer and international best-selling writer and humourist, Bradley Trevor Greive AM (aka BTG). He kindly pointed out that the Charles Bukowski quote in JD’s intro yesterday was actually paraphrasing Nobel laureate Bertrand Russell! And lest anyone quibble, recall that BTG’s own book on Russell (featuring the timeless essay, In Praise of Idleness) is a must-have classic.
Oh, and thanks also to those Intriguers who kindly pointed out that JD’s other intro quote predates Marc Andreessen. Maybe JD should stay away from quotes? 😭
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