Plus: Play of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Is Syria descending back into civil war? |
2️⃣ A surprise update from Denmark’s postal service |
3️⃣ Play of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I was serving in LA right as Hollywood-China ties began to sour, following a spectacular boom era that even featured (for example) an obscure copper miner in China offering a cool $350M to buy a Hollywood studio.
Against that odd backdrop, I ended up attending China's main film awards night in Hollywood and, after arriving in my tux, quickly noticed everybody there was both:
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a) really, ridiculously good-looking, and
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b) really, ridiculously evasive about why they were there.
Had I stumbled into some kind of chiselled Truman Show? No. Eventually, a tux-clad chad with a jaw that could slice a Thanksgiving Turkey sensed my bewilderment and explained what was going on — the event organisers had struggled to fill the seats so, at the last minute, had resorted to paying fashion models to pad out the crowd.
Anyway, let’s get you up to speed on Syria.
Mark Carney to become Canada’s new prime minister.
Former central bank chief Mark Carney has won the race to lead Canada’s ruling Liberal Party, replacing outgoing Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next prime minister once sworn in (any day now). The ruling party’s approval ratings have enjoyed a big rebound leading Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs and trolling.
Israel cuts power to Gaza.
The Israeli energy minister has announced electricity cuts to Gaza a week after cutting aid, in an attempt at pressuring Hamas to release the remaining hostages. The UK has condemned the move, arguing “humanitarian aid should never be contingent on a ceasefire or used as a political tool.“
Russia reclaims territory in Kursk.
Russian forces have apparently recaptured several villages in Russia’s own Kursk region, days after the US halted military assistance and intelligence sharing with Kyiv (the US has reportedly now restored most intel sharing). Meanwhile, the Saudis are getting ready to host Ukrainian and US delegations for peace talks starting tomorrow (Tuesday).
Romanian candidate barred from election.
There’ve been protests in Bucharest after authorities barred Russia-friendly candidate Călin Georgescu from running in Romania’s May elections, following the annulment of his surprise first-round win last year over evidence of Russian interference via TikTok. Georgescu, who now has hours to appeal, has called the decision “a direct blow to the heart of democracy worldwide”.
Yoon released from prison.
Impeached South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol walked out of prison on Saturday after a court overturned his insurrection arrest on technical grounds. Prosecutors say they’re still pursuing a conviction, while another court ponders a final ruling on his impeachment.
TOP STORY
Is Syria descending back into civil war?
Syria’s semi-ruling Ahmed al-Sharaa has called for calm after a weekend of violence.
Ever since December’s ousting of Syria's long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad, we’ve openly pondered how long the triumphant rebel leader replacing Assad at the top (Ahmed al-Sharaa) might be able (or even willing) to hold an unwieldy place like Syria together.
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Was his 2016 road-to-Damascus conversion to cut his al-Qaeda ties legit, or is he now just giving that same ideology a new technocratic suit?
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Could he and his band of perhaps 30,000 armed followers realistically impose order on a wildly diverse country of 24 million people?
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And stemming from the first two questions above, will Syria’s minorities (including Alawites, Druze, Christians, and Kurds) have a future in al-Sharaa’s Syria?
Well, after this weekend, those questions are now looking a little less hypothetical.
What's happened? This whole space is awash with agendas and the fog of war, but here’s the clearest picture we can paint right now:
First, after persistent rumbles of pro-Assad figures refusing to lay down their arms, Assad’s loyalists suddenly mounted ambushes Thursday against al-Sharaa’s forces across Syria's coastal strongholds of the Alawites (Assad’s minority Islam offshoot).
Violence then erupted across the coastal cities of Latakia, Jableh and Banias:
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Pro-al-Sharaa Sunni-majority groups committed massacres they variously described (on camera) as either revenge for a) Thursday's attacks, b) Assad's decades of crimes, and/or c) just belonging to the wrong tribe
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Foreign jihadis who’ve supported al-Sharaa (without necessarily answering to him) also committed atrocities against Alawites and others they described (on camera) as infidels and/or traitors, and
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There are reports the resurgent Assad loyalists themselves (including notorious war criminals) even killed fellow Alawites in villages that then refused to help.
Second, as folks count their dead (hundreds at least), the blame game is now playing out:
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The fact some of the pro-Assad ambushes took place near a Russian-controlled airbase has fuelled claims of support from Russia, Iran, and/or Hezbollah
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Others are blaming an inevitable power vacuum caused by al-Sharaa disbanding too many of Assad's security forces after seizing power, and
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Still others see this all as evidence that the factions propping up al-Sharaa are finally revealing their true jihadi colours.
And third, there's now also some major ‘told you so’ vibes playing out:
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Israel has cited the weekend's massacres as evidence that "jihadists in suits are still jihadists" (a reference to al-Sharaa ditching his fatigues since seizing power)
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The US has likewise condemned jihadis for the weekend's killing spree, and
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Specifically, supporters of Trump and his new spymaster (Tulsi Gabbard) have highlighted their respective years of scepticism towards all rebel groups in Syria.
Meanwhile, there's been relative silence from Turkey, which is not surprising when you realise they’ve been a top external backer of a guy (al-Sharaa) whose supporters are now facing serious allegations of mass atrocities against Syria’s minorities.
As for al-Sharaa himself?
He's released a video skirting around the allegations against his supporters, but reiterating his commitment to national unity, and pledging to hold the perpetrators to account. “We have to preserve national unity and domestic peace. We can live together.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This whole ugly episode exposes just a few of the many tensions at the heart of fledgling post-Assad Syria. Here are three —
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Al-Sharaa's movement: he’s promising a friendlier, technocratic form of Islamist rule, but seemingly relying on Jihadis to help deliver it
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Transitional justice: he’s promising security and stability, but also accountability for past crimes, two aims that have sometimes worked at cross-purposes historically, and…
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Democracy: Assad’s Alawites made enemies ruling the country for decades, but they’re now 10% of Syria's Sunni-majority population, a combustible situation potentially requiring either a strong state or a strong democratic tradition (neither present right now) to avert disaster.
Also worth noting:
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While Syria’s violence played out over the weekend, neighbouring Jordan hosted a regional conference seeking solutions around Syria’s security, reconstruction, and refugees. The resulting joint statement is light on detail.
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The US, the EU, and others variously cited the protection of minorities as a condition for the removal of Assad-era sanctions.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Beijing’s defence ministry has announced that China, Russia, and Iran will hold joint naval exercises near Iran's Chabahar Port from tomorrow (Tuesday). The three powers, sharing a common desire to curb what they describe as US hegemony, have held various joint drills in recent years.
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🇫🇷 France: The French defence minister has announced France will begin using interest accrued on frozen Russian assets to fund $210M in arms for Ukraine, while also donating older tanks and armoured vehicles. He also noted that he still considers the US an ally, "despite its great unpredictability".
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🇹🇭 Thailand: Two separatist attacks in southern Thailand’s Muslim-majority south have left five people dead and a dozen wounded over the weekend. Bangkok is pledging to deploy more security forces to the region, where there’s been a low-level insurgency brewing since the early 2000s.
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🇭🇳 Honduras: Locals voted in primaries yesterday (Sunday) to choose which candidates will lead the three main Honduran party tickets for November’s presidential elections. Preliminary results suggest the current defence secretary, a TV personality, and a former mayor will emerge on top.
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🇨🇩 DR Congo: The Congolese government is offering $5M for any help in arresting three leaders of M23, the rebel group seizing turf across the country’s mineral-rich east. There’s little chance of them being detained, so DRC is also trying to rally international support to sanction their Rwandan backers.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A New Jersey-based auction house has sold a Cheeto shaped like the Pokémon Charizard for $88k.
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Denmark’s postal service has announced it’ll stop delivering letters by the end of 2025, ending 400 years of operation.
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British investment firm ‘Abrdn’ has re-inserted vowels back into its name (‘aberdeen’) after its hip new rebrand drew some brutal mockery online.
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While we’re in the UK, a Cambridgeshire man has lodged a pair of fake legs upside down in a pot hole to (successfully) get authorities to fix it.
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And a Florida man has swallowed $700K in jewellery in an attempt to steal it.
PLAY OF THE DAY
Credits: London Theatre.
For any of our London readers, there’s a new play opening in West End this week that pairs high stakes geopolitical intrigue with a dash of thespian flare. Named Kyoto, the play dives into the marathon 1997 Kyoto Protocol negotiations which repeatedly averted collapse — and somehow survived multiple dry coffee pots — to agree on ways the world can reduce carbon emissions.
DAILY POLL
What do you think Syria's weekend of violence means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think the US and China actually see the world similarly?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, their world visions are converging (34%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, there are still fundamental differences (63%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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👍 R.G: “Every school bully thinks the same.”
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👎 M.G: “The US has a short-term event horizon which is becoming even shorter as Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy is implemented. China always plays the long game.”
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✍️ M.M: “I think their leaders do, however, not sure the majority of the citizens do.”
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