Plus: More intrigue at COP28
Hi Intriguer. When we started Intrigue, I knew both our readers by name (hi mama 👋). But 80k+ subscribers later, I get periodic reminders that our work now reaches unexpected folks in unexpected ways.
One example floored me just last week. I caught up with a woman who was a former Ukrainian diplomat now working in the private sector. She told me she reads Intrigue every day.
But the thing that struck me? She translates our briefings into Ukrainian for her parents each day. Her parents are still living through the conflict in Ukraine, and Intrigue apparently brings a bit of levity to their world.
As the team and I hustle to get each briefing into your inbox (featuring an update on the Russo-Ukraine war today), we try never to lose sight of the fact that the events and issues we cover affect real lives – quite often, yours.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
Israel enters southern Gaza. According to satellite images reviewed by The New York Times, Israeli armoured vehicles have reached Khan Younis, the largest city in southern Gaza. Israeli officials believe Hamas’s leadership is now based there after fleeing Israel’s operations in the strip’s north. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people were already seeking refuge in southern Gaza, and Israel is issuing new orders for them to evacuate farther south.
Putin heads abroad. Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to make a trip to the Middle East on Wednesday, with planned stops in Saudi Arabia and the UAE (we’ll be watching in case he makes an appearance at COP). Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula announced he would be inviting Putin to next year’s G20 summit in Brazil.
Moody’s downgrades China bonds. Concerns about the health of China’s debt have pushed credit rating company Moody’s to downgrade the country’s sovereign bonds outlook from stable to negative. Beijing pushed back by labelling the move “disappointing”.
German slowdown. Survey data out of Germany suggests the country’s investment climate “has deteriorated noticeably” since March due to financing costs, weak demand, and policy uncertainty. This comes just as a court ruling last week forces Berlin to wind down the €200B fund it’s been using to subsidise energy prices for households and businesses.
The UK moves to cut migration. The UK is seeking to cut its migrant intake, including by raising the minimum salary skilled migrants must earn to retain their visas, and tightening rules on whether they can bring families. Annual net migration to the UK hit a record 745,000 last year, putting pressure on PM Sunak ahead of elections expected next year.
TOP STORY
Western funding for Ukraine under pressure as the war approaches its third calendar year
The White House warned in a letter to Congress yesterday (Monday) that military and economic assistance to Ukraine will run out by the end of the year without additional funding. Failure to allocate new money would “kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield”, according to budget director Shalanda Young.
Since the start of its highly anticipated counter-offensive in June, Ukraine has:
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Reclaimed around 200 sq km of territory (it re-took 8,600 sq km in less than two months during its 2022 counter-offensive), and
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Suffered tens of thousands of casualties (exact numbers remain a state secret for both Kyiv and Moscow).
There’ve been some glimmers of good news for Ukraine. Last month, for example, officials confirmed they’d established a beachhead on the east bank of the heavily-contested Dnipro River after Russia rather euphemistically said it had “relocated troops to more advantageous positions.”
Plus, new Western equipment has helped Kyiv hit high-value Russian military targets in Crimea and beyond. But Ukraine still faces the triple challenge of:
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Winter setting in, freezing its (almost) frozen frontlines
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A world again consumed by conflict in the Middle East, and
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Hard limits in manpower and kit (Ukraine might’ve stopped firing US-supplied ATACMS missiles simply because it only received a few of them).
President Biden has sought to maintain US support for both Ukraine and Israel via a combined $106B funding bill (with appropriations for Taiwan and border security, too). But debate within Congress continues on whether there’s enough being directed to border control, so the US funding bill isn’t proceeding for now.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This doesn’t mean the legislation is necessarily doomed. Newly-minted US House Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s trying to rally support among his party, and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell’s support for Ukraine is well-established.
Still, this domestic debate points to a broader question some leaders around the world are now asking: if the war has reached a stalemate, is it still worth investing in Ukraine’s defence?
That question misses three critical points:
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Lack of funding won’t end the war, but it will enable Russia to seize more of Ukraine’s territory and cities
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The latest counteroffensive notwithstanding, Ukraine has exceeded the expectations of supporters and detractors alike, and
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Even a stalemate or ‘frozen conflict’ plays to Russia’s longer-term advantage, given Putin’s demonstrated strategy of using them as ‘instalment plan wars.’
But US political realities persist and are pointing toward a world where funding for Ukraine will be harder to come by. And that’s all before US election season kicks into high gear next year.
Also worth noting:
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The Senate could vote on the legislation (which includes around $60B for Ukraine) as soon as this week.
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Budget disputes in Brussels are also threatening to derail the EU’s proposed $50B allocation for Ukraine.
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🌱 COP28 CORNER
Climate finance was centre stage yesterday (Monday), with the UAE pledging $270 billion in green finance by 2030 through its banks.
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Meanwhile, World Bank President Ajay Banga is concentrating on carbon markets, and is looking to sponsor forestry projects in 15 countries that could generate 125 million carbon credits.
Pope Francis used his virtual speech to call for an end to fossil fuels, plus debt forgiveness for poorer countries affected by climate change.
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The Pope doubles as a head of state, and his diplomats have been more active at COP this year, hosting the first-ever COP Faith Pavilion.
Helen’s dispatch
Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman was the talk of the town yesterday after he unexpectedly skipped his scheduled speech. The Saudis haven’t explained his absence, but given that Qatari, Palestinian, and Israeli leaders also bailed at the last minute, it’s probably got something to do with the resumption of Israel-Hamas hostilities.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres wasn’t happy and used a closed-door session with Arab governments to dunk on the Saudis, saying the kingdom’s football league has a combined annual salary higher than the total pledges for last week’s historic ‘loss and damage’ fund (we checked and it’s true).
Word from inside the room was that folks were left in stunned silence. Diplomacy is often not quite so diplomatic behind closed doors.
This year’s COP venue is huge.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Xi Jinping welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to Beijing yesterday for the second time this year. Lukashenko is a close Putin ally, and his repeat visits to China come as he faces persistent isolation elsewhere.
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🇫🇷 France: Australia and France have signed a military deal promising “enhanced” reciprocal access to their respective military bases, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. It’s a sign the two have moved on from their 2021 spat, when Australia ditched its French submarine plans in favour of an AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) alternative.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: The EV arm of China’s Hozon automaker has kicked off production at a new plant in Thailand. The factory is aiming to ship 20,000 vehicles a year and is part of the Thai government’s efforts to decarbonise its transport sector.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: The EU’s trade commissioner has cancelled a scheduled trip to Brazil for negotiations on a long-awaited free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc this week. President Macron of France has raised concerns over the deal’s environmental rules, while President-elect Milei of Argentina has threatened to leave the South American bloc altogether.
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🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau: President Umaro Sissoco Embalo dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament yesterday, days after what he described as an “attempted coup” by "certain political interests within the State apparatus." He didn’t set an election date.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what folks around the world tweeted about yesterday
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🇮🇩 People in Indonesia were tweeting about “Marapi”, a volcano erupting on the island of Sumatra. Authorities say 11 climbers have died and a dozen more are missing.
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🇸🇪 Swedes were talking about #Spotify, the Swedish company that announced plans to cut 1,500 jobs (17% of its workforce) in its third layoff round of the year.
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🇸🇧 And Solomon Islanders were tweeting about the “Vangunu giant rat”, an ultra-rare mammal that was just photographed alive by scientists for the first time ever.
MAP OF THE DAY
Credit: ‘coolguides’ community on Reddit.
What do you call someone from Texas? A Texan, of course. And a Virginian is obviously from Virginia. But this map of US demonyms gets a little trickier when you head to Utah (home of the Utahn), Michigan (where Michiganders live), or Indiana, where folks call themselves Hoosiers.
As for demonyms around the world, some of our favourites include:
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Nauruan (from Nauru – ‘Nauruan’ is also a palindrome!)
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Monégasque (Monaco)
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Capitalino (Mexico City), and
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Kittian and Nevisian (St. Kitts and St. Nevis).
DAILY POLL
Where do you think the Russo-Ukraine war is headed? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think this Venezuela-Guyana dispute is headed?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 Nowhere – it's just classic posturing from a desperate President Maduro (25%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔥 This could get real – desperate leaders are dangerous (74%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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🔥 M.J.H: “It’s not just the desperation of reelection, oil fields are also an opportunity the country with the world’s highest inflation rate just can’t ignore.”
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🤷 D.K: “Most likely nowhere, but it's likely enough that it's still worth Brazil and the US taking steps to prevent invasion.”
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✍️ R.C: “Flaring up old sovereignty disputes typically doesn’t end well for the instigators. Just look at Galtieri with the Falklands as a recent example.”