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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Israel kills Sinwar |
2️⃣ On this date |
3️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend recommendations |
Hi Intriguer. Have you ever wondered why shaking a martini causes the amount of liquid inside to decrease while at the same time creating enough pressure to pop the lid off the shaker? No, me neither, but British actor and living treasure Hugh Laurie has, and he asked his followers on X to help him understand why.
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Turns out the answer is because when shaken, vodka and air expand faster and further than ice contracts. Still, it’s only good science to confirm the results by running a replication experiment this evening.
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In the meantime, join us as we explore what the blockbuster news of Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar’s death means for the war in Gaza and for the region more generally.
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P.S. – We teamed up with a few of our favourite newsletters to give our readers a chance to win an Away suitcase bundle and Monocle subscription.
THE HEADLINES
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US charges Indian ex-spy in New York assassination plot.
The US has charged a former Indian intelligence officer for allegedly arranging a foiled plot to assassinate a US-Canadian Sikh activist in New York. The charges now directly implicate the Indian government in an assassination attempt on a US citizen on US soil, and come just days after the Canadian government identified several Indian diplomats as ‘persons of interest’ in an ongoing investigation into the murder of another Sikh activist. India had previously declared both targets to be terrorists.
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China records 4.6% growth (yoy) in Q3.
Official figures suggest China’s economy expanded by 4.6% year on year in the third quarter. That’s the lowest growth rate in the last 18 months, and below the ruling party’s 5% target, though slightly above the 4.5% economists had expected (and solid by international standards). Other numbers, like retail sales and industrial production, also fared better than expected.
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UK foreign secretary lands in China.
David Lammy has touched down in China for two days of talks on everything from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through to trade and climate change. He’s the first minister from the UK’s Starmer administration to visit China, which has voiced an intention to ‘stabilise’ ties with the UK — though that’s a tough ask given ongoing tensions over espionage and Beijing’s crackdown in the former UK colony of Hong Kong.
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Bangladesh issues arrest warrant for ex-PM.
A court has issued an arrest warrant for former leader Sheikh Hasina and 45 others, accusing them of crimes against humanity during this summer’s student-led uprising. Hasina fled to India in a helicopter in August after being ousted from power.
UN envoy proposes Western Sahara partition.
The UN envoy for Western Sahara has proposed dividing the territory between Morocco and the pro-independence and Algeria-backed Polisario Front. The proposal, the envoy argued, would bring an end to five decades of conflict. Neither Morocco nor the Polisario Front have accepted the idea.
TOP STORY
Israel kills Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar
A still from Israeli drone footage capturing Yahwa Sinwar’s last moments alive.
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Israel has announced the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the group’s latest overall leader and the architect of the Hamas attacks on Israel last October 7th.
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The co-founder of the Hamas armed wing, Sinwar spent more than two decades in an Israeli prison for his role in the 1989 kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he considered to be collaborators. But he then got released in 2011 as one of 1,026 Palestinian prisoners exchanged for kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
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How’d Sinwar die?
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The IDF released drone footage late yesterday (Thursday) showing Sinwar in his final moments: masked, wounded, and hiding behind a couch in the second story of a damaged building in Rafah, southern Gaza. His final act was to toss a stick at the drone.
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There are various reports around the broader encounter, but the most common timeline Israeli officials are back-briefing to local and international outlets looks like this:
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Yesterday, an Israeli patrol in Rafah spotted three figures moving from house to house, and identified them as likely Hamas members
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A firefight ensued and the individuals (who threw grenades) scattered into nearby buildings, which the Israelis then shelled
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The Israelis then flew a drone inside and captured the above footage, before firing another shell inside
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This morning (Friday), the Israelis re-entered and found bodies including Sinwar’s. They confirmed his ID using dental records from his decades in prison.
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So what now?
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For Hamas, its battalions are now mostly gone or combat ineffective, while its key leaders are all dead. And while the group still seems capable of firing occasional rockets at Israel (as it did on the October 7 anniversary), both the volume and frequency have collapsed.
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So looking ahead, there are two big questions for Hamas. First, who might replace Sinwar, who himself only just got the top job after Israel assassinated Haniyeh in Iran. Various names include Sinwar’s (much less capable) brother Mohammed, or Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, though it’s unclear what difference either could make right now.
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And second, there’s the question of whether Sinwar’s death shifts the group’s attitudes towards the 100 hostages it’s still holding in Gaza. You could argue that with hardliners like Sinwar and Deif now gone, others in the group might be more inclined to negotiate. Alternatively, you could argue that with the group now focused entirely on its own survival, it’s less likely to give up the one source of leverage it still has left (hostages).
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As for Hamas backers like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and their shared sponsor, Iran? They’ve long anchored their sense of security in a belief that with their collective firepower aimed at Israel, the Israelis couldn’t – so wouldn’t – take them all on. But the demise of so many Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, plus the degradation of all three arsenals, now leaves Iran more vulnerable not only regionally, but also at home.
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Then that takes us back to Israel, which can now add Sinwar’s death to its recent string of victories. And it’ll interpret Sinwar’s demise as a vindication of its decisions both to a) not do another deal with him; and b) proceed with a ground operation in Rafah (where they eventually found him) despite all the international pressure earlier this year.
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So then, the big question now is whether any of this shapes Israel’s – but really Netanyahu’s – calculations about how and when to end this war. You could argue Sinwar’s death might create enough political space for Bibi to declare some kind of victory in Gaza, and initial statements from world leaders suggest many now sense a turning point to finally get the hostages released and end this war. But hardliners in Netanyahu’s government have already rejected those calls: unless Hamas surrenders, “forget about it”.
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Either way, it’ll largely depend on what Hamas does with the ~100 hostages, and to that end, Bibi has now said he’ll guarantee the captors can “leave and live” if they let them go.
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So then, where does that leave things? Bibi has hinted this is now “the beginning of the end”, but he’s still declaring that “the task before us is not yet complete”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Sinwar wanted to trigger a broader regional and religious war that would lead to Israel’s “collapse”. But a year later, the opposite has happened: while Sinwar hid underground, Gazans up above bore the brunt of Israel’s devastating response, something Sinwar reportedly dismissed as “necessary sacrifices”.
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Meanwhile, his erstwhile allies in the region showed their solidarity from afar, while Israel gradually shifted the balance of power back in its own favour. And now Sinwar, the man responsible for the biggest loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust, is dead.
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As for Israel, with momentum on its side, the risk ahead is hubris and getting trapped in something bigger. And there’s precedent for that, not only in Netanyahu’s history, but in Israel’s, too. That’s probably why Sinwar himself speculated back in 2018 that, “for Netanyahu, a victory would be even worse than a defeat”.
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Also worth noting:
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All three Hamas leaders named in possible International Criminal Court arrest warrants are now dead (Haniyeh, Deif, and Sinwar). The remaining two warrant requests are for Israel’s Netanyahu and Gallant (defence minister). An ICC decision on whether to issue those warrants is expected soon.
INTERNATIONAL INTRIGUE PRESENTS
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Join us in Washington, DC for “Securing Tomorrow: The Future of Cyber Threats and Global Defense” on Thursday, October 24 at 6 PM EDT.
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We’ve recently added Deputy Assistant Secretary Liesyl Franz from the U.S Department of State to our already stellar lineup. With her background in cyber diplomacy, DAS Franz will tackle the future of cyber cooperation in an era where geopolitics are pulling global alliances apart. How will collaboration in cyberspace evolve amidst these changes? She’ll explore this and more.
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Our program is packed with insights from leading experts:
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Dr. Kathleen Fisher from DARPA will examine the U.S. strategy to stay ahead of rivals, focusing on how AI is reshaping the cybersecurity landscape.
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Brandon Wales, former CISA Executive Director, will share crucial lessons on how the public and private sectors can learn from each other in the rapidly changing world of cyber defense.
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This is shaping up to be an event you won’t want to miss! Seats are limited, so be sure to secure your spot today.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: The local football federation has fined the national team’s coach $1.5k and imposed mandatory counselling on the importance of respecting the state language, after he jokingly compared Kazakh to French. The coach is a Russian national who’s been involved in several linguistic controversies, reflecting local Kazakh sensitivities around Russia’s influence in the region.
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🇧🇪 Belgium: The NATO alliance has launched plans to develop a military-grade satellite communications network for the Arctic. The plan comes on the heels of heightened Russian action in the region, with the Pentagon warning that Moscow is jamming GPS satellites and collaborating in the Arctic with China.
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🇦🇺 Australia: King Charles and Queen Camilla have just touched down in Sydney, greeted on the tarmac by Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese. It’s the king’s first visit to Australia as Sovereign, though it’s triggered some controversy Down Under because the timing means Albanese will now miss Sunday’s presidential inauguration for Australia’s key neighbour, Indonesia.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: Local authorities are probing the circumstances surrounding the death of UK citizen and former One Direction star Liam Payne after he fell from his third-floor hotel room in Buenos Aires. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has offered his “sincere condolences” adding, “One Direction were one of the biggest bands in history”.
🇿🇦 South Africa: A court has charged several suspects with fraud, including a former spokesperson for South Africa’s ruling party. Pule Mabe and his wife have denied the allegations, which relate to a government waste management contract from 2019.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue
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Read: For those playing catch up on Iranian history, pick up a copy of My Uncle Napoleon to throw some late-1970s societal commentary into the mix.
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Watch: Check out Sergio, a 2009 documentary about the charismatic Brazilian diplomat and UN human rights chief who lost his life in the 2003 al-Qaeda bombing of the UN headquarters in Iraq. Our thanks to Ian for sending that one in after our TV/movie reader poll earlier this week.
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Eat: Dust off your apron and try cooking this viral recipe for Three-Cup Chicken, a staple for many families in Taiwan.
TODAY IN HISTORY
The US cheque to purchase Alaska.
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On this day in 1867, the Russian colony of Alaska officially became part of the US of A after Washington bought it for a cool $7.2M ($153M in 2024 terms).
If you’re wondering why the Russian Empire decided to sell part of its territory, there are two main reasons: not only had the Crimean War left it nearly bankrupt, but Alexander II also recognised his colony would be tricky to defend in case of war with the Brits next door in what is now Canada.
FRIDAY QUIZ
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World Food Day was earlier this week.
1) How much food does the world produce every year?(in metric tonnes)
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2) How much of that food goes to waste? |
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3) Which country produces the most food? |
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