Plus: One in six Indians head to the polls
Hi there Intriguer. As listeners to hit British podcast ‘The Rest Is Politics’ might already know, next year will be ‘The Year of Elections™️’. More than two billion people will vote in 2024, which is two-thirds of all citizens in democratic countries across the world. By year’s end, there will have been more votes cast than any other single year in history, but no prizes for guessing which election will gobble up most of the attention.
Today’s briefing is a 6 min read:
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⚔️ Israel will take “overall security responsibility” in Gaza.
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🇮🇳 Might India’s state elections give opposition parties a morale boost?
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➕ Plus: The King’s Speech, how the papers are covering the latest economic news out of China, and the encouraging environmental news we’re reading.
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🇨🇳 China: The Ministry of Commerce imposed additional export restrictions on rare earth minerals on Tuesday, requiring exporters to collect detailed data on supply contracts and shipments. China is the world’s largest supplier of rare earth minerals.
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🇵🇹 Portugal: Prime Minister Antonio Costa resigned unexpectedly on Tuesday, hours after police raided his official residence as part of a corruption investigation. Costa has denied the charges but agreed that he would be unable to continue in his post.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Malaysian lawmakers have abandoned plans to draft a transboundary air pollution law, which would have enabled Kuala Lumpur to prosecute foreign plantations accused of setting fire to clear large patches of forest. Singapore passed a similar law in 2014.
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🇵🇪 Peru: Foreign Minister Ana Cecilia Gervasi resigned from her post on Monday after failing to organise a meeting between President Dina Boluarte and US President Joe Biden during the former’s trip to the US. Peru’s ambassador to the US also submitted his resignation.
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🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo: Government troops and UN blue helmets launched a joint military operation to secure a key city in northern DRC which has come under attack from several militia groups. President Felix Tshisekedi has called for UN forces to withdraw from his country.
⚔️ Israel-Gaza | War
Israeli troops entering Gaza during the Six-Day War on June 6, 1967. Source: The State of Israel Government Press Office.
Israel will stay in Gaza for the long term
Israel will “have the overall security responsibility [in Gaza] for an indefinite period”, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday. Netanyahu’s announcement came as his defence minister said Israeli forces had “reached the heart of Gaza City” and were “tightening the noose.”
Israel has been here before. In 1967, the IDF conquered the Gaza Strip and other adjacent territory (including the West Bank) during the Six-Day War. For the next several decades, Israel occupied and administered Gaza and around 9,000 Israeli citizens settled there.
Then in 2005, in an effort to forge peace with Palestinians following years of violence known as the Second Intifada, Israel unilaterally withdrew its forces from Gaza and forcefully evicted Israeli settlers in the area.
Back in the present, Netanyahu’s decision to assume ‘overall security responsibility’ in Gaza has seemed inevitable ever since his government announced it would launch a ground operation to “completely destroy Hamas”.
Responding to concerns that Israel would, in reality, be occupying Gaza, Mark Regev, a senior adviser to Prime Minister Netanyahu, said yesterday that “[t]here will have to be an Israeli security presence [in Gaza], but that doesn’t mean Israel is re-occupying Gaza, that doesn’t mean that Israel is there to govern the Gazans.”
Intrigue's take: It’s hard to square that circle. Israel will have few realistic alternatives after it achieves its war aims (and that remains an enormous if):
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It could try to give control of Gaza to the Palestinian National Authority while retaining a security presence (US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with PNA president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday, a sign the US is keeping all options open).
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It could create a new government in Gaza, though it’s not clear how.
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It could try to work with neighbouring Arab countries and the UN to install a multinational governing body with responsibility for Gaza.
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Or it could end up occupying Gaza indefinitely (an idea repugnant to almost all countries and many Israelis).
The initial political reaction to the Hamas attack has narrowed Israel’s medium and long-term options and now threatens to bog the country down in Gaza as it has been for much of its existence.
Also worth noting:
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A former Egyptian diplomat, Abderahman Salaheldin, proposed forming a multinational force “for a transitional period of two years until a Palestinian police force from the Gaza Strip is formed, trained, and equipped to assume the tasks of maintaining security.”
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John Kirby, a White House spokesperson, reiterated President Biden’s concerns to CNN “that a reoccupation of Gaza by Israeli forces is not good”.
📰 How newspapers covered…
The Iatest economic news coming out of China:
Beijing, China |
“Update: China's GDP to grow by 5.4 percent in 2023: IMF” |
Hong Kong
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“China GDP: IMF revises up 2023, 2024 economic growth outlooks, but calls for hastened action to fix property sector” |
New York, US |
“China suffers its first foreign investment deficit as US tensions and anti-spying laws spark a Western exodus” |
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They have patented the only mass market shade automation device, and their exclusive deal with Best Buy resembles that which led Ring and Nest to their billion-dollar buyouts.
🇮🇳 India | Politics
Indian state elections could reveal clues about next year’s general election
A possible 161.4 million Indians, or one out of every six eligible voters nationwide, will head to the polls this month to choose new legislatures in five of India’s 28 states. The first rounds of voting are already underway in two of the five states.
What’s the big deal? Four of the five states heading to the ballot box are currently governed by opposition parties, so analysts will of course be scouring the results for clues about the Indian general election next year (did we mention 2024 is The Year of the Election™️?).
But all politics is local, especially India’s:
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Voters in the far northeast state of Mizoram are worried about unemployment as well as the recent ethnic violence in neighbouring Manipur, which has led at least 12,000 people to flee into Mizoram.
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Authorities in Chhattisgarh in Central India recorded a high turnout in the first round of their elections on Tuesday, despite calls for boycott and reports of violence by Naxalite–Maoist groups.
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Further south in Telangana, the current IT Minister is highlighting a recent deal with Foxconn (reportedly the company’s biggest India investment) to aid his campaign and solidify Hyderabad’s reputation as a national tech hub.
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A decades-old tradition of switching government every five years in the northwestern state of Rajasthan suggests that voters will choose the BJP this year, but some analysts think that for the first time in ~30 years, the Congress Party might retain power in the State Assembly.
Interestingly, vote counting in all five states won’t happen until 3 December with the results declared shortly thereafter.
Intrigue’s take: A strong showing by opposition parties in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh could help change the narrative set by opinion polls which suggest Prime Minister Modi will win a third straight term in power next year.
With that said, in a country as diverse as India we’d caution against drawing any concrete conclusions from the results on 3 December.
Also worth noting:
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys one of the highest approval ratings in the world and is expected to win re-election next year.
➕ Extra Intrigue
Here’s what we’re reading in the way of uplifting environmental news:
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Ex-FARC members aim to restore 1 million native trees in the Colombian Amazon
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On some Australian islands, sea level rise may be helping mangroves thrive
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UK backs suspension of deep-sea mining in environmental U-turn
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What are Climate Dads? Check out the latest episode of ‘What Could Go Right?’, a podcast from our friends at the Progress Network that’s making the case for a brighter future.
🗳️ Poll time!
Should presidents/prime ministers have a maximum term limit? |
📸 Photo of the day
Credits: UK Government.
Charles III laid out Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s policy priorities to Parliament on Tuesday in his first “King’s Speech” (the first such speech delivered by a king rather than a queen in 70 years). A lifelong environmentalist, King Charles maintained a solid poker face while announcing the government’s plans to “support the future licensing of new oil and gas fields.”
Yesterday’s poll: What question / issue should we cover in this week's 'Road to COP28' feature?
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 1️⃣ How is this year's COP different to the last 27? (20%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 2️⃣ Do big climate conferences work? And if not, what are the alternatives? (49%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 3️⃣ Who holds most sway in COP negotiations? (13%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 4️⃣ What's all the drama surrounding the new 'loss and damage' fund? (12%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (send in your COP questions, we might add them next week!) (6%)
Your two cents:
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2️⃣ B: “Much of the doom-saying around climate conferences comes from those not involved in negotiating them, and alternatives are rarely offered. It'd be nice to remedy both of those.”
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✍️ T.G: “Please do everything! I'm really looking forward it!”