🌍 Italy weighs up BRI membership

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: A “large-scale” locust outbreak in Afghanistan is threatening the country’s already fragile food security, according to the UN. Six out of Afghanistan’s 40 million people are now on the brink of famine.

2. 🇩🇪 Germany: Berlin will go ahead with plans to sell part of its biggest port terminal to China’s major state-owned shipping company. Critics argue the sale is a threat to national security.

3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Thai voters will head to the polls on Sunday (14 May). This general election is a crucial test for the country’s military leaders, who are currently trailing behind the opposition in polls.

4. 🇺🇸 US: President Joe Biden has flagged he might need to cancel his upcoming international travel if the US debt ceiling impasse isn’t resolved soon. Biden is scheduled to fly to Japan for the G7 summit next week, before visiting Papua New Guinea and Australia the week after.

5. 🇮🇱 Israel: UN chief António Guterres has called for an immediate end to escalating hostilities between Israeli and Palestinian forces. Guterres condemned the “indiscriminate launching of rockets from Gaza into Israel” and the “civilian loss of life that occurred during Israeli airstrikes”.

🇮🇹 ITALY | GEOPOLITICS

Italy weighs the pros and cons of China’s BRI

Briefly: Italy is the only member of the G7 (a club of seven wealthy nations) currently involved in China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI – a trillion dollar global infrastructure program). But there are reports Italy may quit.

Rome has until the end of the year to make a call before Italy’s BRI membership renews automatically, much like that streaming subscription you keep forgetting to cancel.

Why’d Italy join the BRI in the first place?

• 📉 It was feeling the effects of a debt crisis at the time (2019)

• 🏗️ This made it tough for Rome to invest in much-needed infrastructure, and

• 🤝 The government of the day saw China’s BRI as the solution

So why’s it now thinking of leaving?

• 🤷 The BRI hasn’t really delivered on the promise of new infrastructure

• 😨 Public attitudes towards China have shifted, and

• ☟ Rome has faced pressure from the US and EU to re-think the BRI

Intrigue’s take: Despite best efforts to find a middle ground, the world always seems to find a way to force a choice: in this case, Italy can either keep China happy (by sticking with the BRI) or keep the West happy (by ditching the BRI).

Given the BRI’s limited results in Italy, Rome’s decision really comes down to what message it wants to send. And that in turn depends on what costs it’s willing to absorb. It’ll be well aware of China’s willingness to impose economic costs on countries that don’t play ball.

Also worth noting:

• Estimates vary, but one recent Shanghai-based study says China has invested about $1T across the 148 BRI member states since 2013.

• Before becoming prime minister last year, Meloni said it was “a big mistake” for Italy to join the BRI.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Flaviar

🤝 SOUTHEAST ASIA | GEOPOLITICS

ASEAN summit derailed by Myanmar violence

Briefly: Concerns over Myanmar dominated talks during this week’s annual summit of leaders from ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations).

The 10-member bloc issued a five-point peace plan for Myanmar (a member country) back in 2021, but the ruling junta has ignored it, using a thermobaric weapon (aka ‘vacuum bomb’) in an attack that killed 160 villagers last month.

And the violence hit home on Sunday (7 May), when an ASEAN aid convoy in Myanmar (carrying Indonesian and Singaporean diplomats) came under fire.

Intrigue’s take: ASEAN was built on a spirit of joint decisions, and not interfering in others’ internal affairs. That’s partly driven ASEAN’s passive approach so far.

But it’s an approach that’s now making less sense. First, it’s Myanmar’s actions that are now interfering with the region’s internal affairs: some 200,000 folks have fled to Malaysia, and drug and human trafficking is spreading too.

But second, ASEAN has much more heft and wealth now than when it was founded in 1967. And that brings with it much more responsibility to act.

Also worth noting:

• Malaysia’s PM shared footage of him urging fellow leaders to find a “new vision” for ASEAN, to better handle situations like Myanmar.

• This year’s summit was hosted by ASEAN’s largest economy, Indonesia, which set the theme as ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth. Tensions in the South China Sea were also high on the agenda.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

As ever, we present this weekend’s recommendations from Team Intrigue! If you’ve got:

• 10 mins: Check out Slow Chinese, a free resource helping Mandarin learners keep their language skills up to date in just 10 minutes a week.

• 29 mins: Listen to this episode of EU Confidential by Politico, to prep for this weekend’s Turkish elections and what’s at stake.

• 40 mins: Watch this YouTube documentary on ghost kitchens, a growing phenomenon on food delivery apps.

🏡 EMBASSY OF THE DAY

Norway established an embassy in Washington in 1906, a year after Norwegian independence from Sweden. But the ol’ embassy is now looking pretty, pretty, pretty good… thanks to recent renovations. Our favourite feature? The curved timber bearing wall, designed to mimic Viking shipbuilding.

DC residents can see Norway’s embassy and more during the EU Open House event tomorrow (13 May)!

🗳️ QUIZ TIME!

Answers: 1-d, 2-b, 3-d.