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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 5 geopolitical vibes at the Paris Olympics |
2️⃣ Jets scramble in the Arctic |
3️⃣ Hideout of the day |
Hi Intriguer. We’re delighted to announce that we recently acquired Lykeion, the excellent macro and geopolitics-focused media company. Our plan is to slowly integrate their incredible library of evergreen briefings into a knowledge base for all Intriguers.
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In the meantime, if you’re a Lykeion reader and this is your first taste of International Intrigue, welcome!
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There are now almost 115,000 Intriguers, and yet it still feels like the same intimate community as always. For that, we say thank you. Don’t forget to keep sending us your thoughts, and if you love what we do and want to help us keep it free, consider telling your friends about us!
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P.S. Today’s briefing focuses on the geopolitics of the Olympics which, despite being absolutely swamped by the news cycle, begin this Friday!
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THE HEADLINES
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Kamala Harris now presumptive nominee.
The US vice president is now on track to win the Democratic Party’s nomination after securing the backing of a majority of party delegates. Her campaign also raised a record-breaking $81M in the 24 hours after President Biden withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Harris on Sunday. Harris will make her campaign debut in Milwaukee today (Tuesday).
US Secret Service chief testifies on Trump shooting.
Kimberly Cheatle has told a House committee that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was “the most significant operational failure at the Secret Service in decades”. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle ended up calling for Cheatle to step down, frustrated by her vague answers.
Rival Palestinian factions make peace in China?
China-based media outlets are reporting that rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah (plus ~12 smaller groups) have signed a declaration on “ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity” – the reported deal pledges to work towards a unity government for the Palestinian territories.
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Hungary barred from hosting next EU summit.
The EU’s outgoing top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has barred Hungary from hosting the bloc’s next summit of foreign and defence ministers, citing Prime Minister Orbán’s ties with Russian President Putin. The meeting will now be held in Brussels instead.
Wiz rejects Google acquisition, sets sights on IPO.
Israeli-founded cybersecurity firm Wiz has walked away from Google’s $23B takeover bid, announcing it’ll continue with its original IPO plans instead. The deal would’ve been the biggest acquisition in Google’s history.
TOP STORY
Five geopolitical vibes at the Paris Olympics
Five rings to rule them all
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As 10,500 athletes from 200 countries and regions head to Paris for the 2024 Summer Olympics, the organisers really really want the world’s largest sporting event to be free of politics and geopolitics.
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And to that, we say bon chance. Here are five ways these Olympics will again get geopolitical, if they’re not already (they are). And it all starts right in…
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The Olympic DNA
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The ancient games began among rival city-states who, when not busy warring among themselves, used the event to spread Hellenistic culture across the region.
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Fast forward to 1896, and the French aristocrat who rebirthed the Olympics said he was moved by his own wartime trauma to try mending ties with sports.
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Then fast-forward again to 2024, with a quarter of the world’s folks now caught in ~55 conflicts, plus Paris itself on the highest terror alert. And against that kind of backdrop, we’re gonna need a lot of rhythmic gymnastics. So let’s look at…
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The Olympic Truce
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Since 1992, the UN General Assembly has called for an ‘Olympic Truce’ during each event, but Russia has breached it around the games in 2008 (seizing Georgian territory), 2014 (annexing Crimea) and 2022 (invading broader Ukraine).
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The latter got Russian and Belarusian athletes sanctioned, so they can now only compete as neutrals (no flags or anthems – Putin lost his appeal this year). Even the UN’s latest ‘Olympic Truce’ only passed on a vote (rather than consensus) after Russia sought unsuccessfully to tweak the text in its own favour.
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Meanwhile, organisers have resisted calls for sanctions on Israeli athletes over the war in Gaza, though they’re bracing for protests and have upped security since the 1972 terrorist attack against the Israeli team in Munich.
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Then that brings us to…
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Who hosts
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The decision whether to bid for hosting rights is a tricky one: it’s the ultimate global spotlight to showcase a country’s power, values, culture, investability, and beyond. Reagan (for example) used the 1984 LA games to push back on claims of US decline, and Macron is arguably making a similar statement in 2024.
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But hosting is also costly, and can aim a global microscope on your own issues, raising questions around whether others will turn up: we saw (for example) duelling Cold War boycotts, plus boycotts of Beijing’s 2022 opening ceremony.
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Foes can also disrupt the games to make you look bad – eg, French intelligence has already accused Azerbaijan of seeking to foment domestic resistance to the games online, presumably in retaliation for France’s support for rival Armenia.
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And then there’s…
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Who plays
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Simply turning up can make a statement, like when the two rival Koreas marched together – and even fielded an ice hockey team together – in 2018. Or sometimes it’s a post-win gesture, like the South Korean soccer player who lost his 2012 medal over his sign claiming sovereignty over the Dokdo-Takeshimas.
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And this year, you can also look at who’s not playing: an Algerian judoka got banned for a decade back in 2021 after refusing to compete against an Israeli.
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Then of course, there’s…
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Who wins
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A single medal can inspire not just a nation, but millions abroad – take Morocco’s first gold medallist (Nawal El Moutawakel), who won the first-ever 400m women’s hurdles in 1984 in a breakthrough for women across the region.
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Major rivalries can also play out in a single match-up, like the infamous 1956 Hungary-USSR water polo match that left blood in the pool, just weeks after Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest (the Hungarians took gold).
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And of course, major rivalries can also play out in the total medal tally: China invested heavily to ensure its first overall win coincided with its Beijing games in 2008, capping off China’s big ‘coming of age’ moment on the world stage.
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But as China-US ties have soured, and the two powers now openly compete for international influence, more folks will (again) see that total medal count as a proxy for broader systemic competition: ie, “my system is better than yours”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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We’re barely scratching the surface here, but let’s scratch once more:
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Given the above stakes, you can bet Paris 2024 will be full of spies. Yes, spies. Many will be playing ‘defence’, whether it’s the ‘minders’ from more reclusive regimes trying to prevent defections from among their athletes, or the local counter-terrorism folks trying to keep the city safe.
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But you can also bet there’ll be spooks there playing ‘offence’. Just look at the sheer number of world leaders and associated power-brokers gathering for the opening ceremony on Friday night. And that’s before you count the athletes and sporting officials, often with close ties to power back home…
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Anyway, don’t let us distract you from the 45 sports taking centre stage in and around Paris from Friday, including new ones like breakdancing (seriously).
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Also worth noting:
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One Paris event (surfing) will actually take place 15,700km away in Tahiti. The Paris Paralympics will start next month. The next summer games are in LA (2028) and then Brisbane (2032).
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Denver became the first city to hand back its hosting rights (1976) after voters passed a referendum against the related spending.
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Oh, and we could write a whole briefing on the International Olympic Committee, which is based in Lausanne, generates $8B in revenue each cycle, and is governed by 100 self-selected ‘members’, including the longest-serving of them all, Princess Nora of Liechtenstein.
A MESSAGE FROM HERON
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Risk disclosures: http://heronfinance.com/
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: The Taiwanese armed forces have kicked off their annual Han Kuang military exercises, but with a few tweaks aimed at getting as close as possible to actual combat. There’ll be no rehearsals, no scripts, and fewer showy firepower displays, with troops instead concentrating on practising their defensive roles.
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🇷🇺 Russia: Moscow says it has scrambled its fighter jets to intercept two US bombers that were approaching its border in the Arctic. The US says it carries out routine flights above international waters, but the Russians have come to see such missions with growing suspicion.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: The local coast guard has tracked down and intercepted an oil tanker that fled after a collision with another ship. Authorities accuse the Sao Tome & Principe-flagged ship, part of the ‘dark fleet’ that transports oil for sanctioned countries, of fleeing the scene in flames and shutting off its tracking system.
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🇭🇹 Haiti: At least 40 people have died at sea after a boat carrying over 80 migrants heading to Turks and Caicos caught fire. The recent uptick in gang violence across Haiti has pushed more and more people to flee by desperate means.
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🇮🇶 Iraq: After months of negotiations, Iraqi leaders are reportedly hoping a US-led military force will begin withdrawing in September and formally end its Iraq mission in 2025. Some US troops could still remain in Iraq in an advisory capacity.
🚨 INTRIGUE EVENT ALERT
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Our next event is here! Join us on Wednesday July 24th (tomorrow) at 6pm EDT at the Embassy of Australia DC for our event, ‘How Internet Culture Shapes Our World: Memes, Deep Fakes, and Virality’.
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Explore the impact of AI, viral content, and deep fakes on political discourse, public opinion, and global geopolitics. Gain insights from experts on how these elements shape electoral landscapes and understand the technology and ethical implications behind them. Registration is at capacity, but join the waitlist here!
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What people around the world googled yesterday
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🇨🇦 Canadians looked up ‘Williams Lake’ after the city declared a state of emergency over a nearby wildfire.
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Folks in 🇳🇬 Nigeria searched for ‘Aliko Dangote’ to read up on Africa’s richest man, who just announced he’d be willing to sell his refinery business to Nigeria’s state-owned oil company.
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And 🇯🇵 Japanese golf fans googled ‘Xander Schauffele’ after the US athlete (who has family ties to Japan, Taiwan, Germany, and France) won the British Open, his second major tournament win this year.
HIDEOUT OF THE DAY
Credits: SDL Auctions
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Ever dreamed of living in a nuclear bunker? Us neither. But still, if you’ve got a lazy $26K you could do it anyway.
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The above property in northern England goes on auction this Friday, and is one of 1,500+ similar bunkers the Brits built during the Cold War. This particular one features no windows, no running water, and no modern conveniences. Oh, but it does have private parking.
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Extra fun fact: Switzerland is the only country that still mandates nuclear bunkers. By law, each citizen has a right to one square metre of underground shelter.
DAILY POLL
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What do you think the Olympics are really about? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think Biden’s withdrawal means for the race?
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🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 Not much – Trump still has a significant advantage (27%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚀 It’s a game-changer – things just got competitive (70%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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🤷 R.J: “Dems’ problems run deeper than just Biden, and bumping Harris to the top of the ticket won’t do much to change that.”
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🚀 T: “It gives all those ‘double-no’ voters a new younger option.”
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✍️ M.B: “I am a US citizen and have followed my country’s politics my entire adult life. It’s done nothing but get more bonkers as time has gone on, and this is no exception. Long ago gave up trying to make predictions or ascribe meaning to unexpected events.”
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✍️ Editor’s corner
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Our thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out that, while the Azeri president cited his support for Comoros independence, he was likely referring to nearby Mayotte, which is claimed by Comoros (a sovereign nation) but administered by France.