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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why Macron rolled the dice |
2️⃣ Turbulence in global aviation |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I’ve got a question for you: How much do you think international relations (e.g., global events, stances on global policy) will impact the 2024 US presidential election?
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Well, we partnered with The Harris Poll to run an exclusive poll last week asking just that, and it turns out that 3/4 of American adults not only think international relations will impact the election, but also their own engagement with the election in November.
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So, it’s with evidence-based delight that I announce that we’re launching our ‘Election Intrigue’ newsletter next week!
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Look, I know there’s no shortage of hot takes on the US election, but I believe there’s nothing focused on accurately exploring the crucial questions of how US foreign policy is shaping the election, and how the outcome in November will shape the world.
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So, starting next week, Intrigue’s Washington-based correspondent Kristen Talman and I will be asking those questions via a once-a-week newsletter and podcast. (Oh, and I promise, absolutely zero partisan politics – just the facts and what I think they mean).
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If that sounds like something you’d be intrigued by, I wholeheartedly invite you to subscribe for free!
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Now, on to today’s briefing, in which we try to unpack what the heck Emmanuel Macron is playing at by calling early elections in France.
THE HEADLINES
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Hamas seeks “amendments” to US ceasefire plan.
The group’s official statement, made jointly with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), says the two are ready “to engage positively to reach an agreement that ends this war”, but it stresses they seek a “complete halt” to fighting. US officials are now “evaluating” the Hamas-PIJ proposal, which reportedly includes edits to the terms of Israel’s withdrawal as well as the hostage-prisoner swap. Israeli officials say they see this Hamas-PIJ response as a rejection of the original plan.
EU slaps tariffs of up to 38% on China-made EVs.
This news hit moments ago, after the European Commission evidently brushed aside German concerns. Germany’s luxury carmakers fear China’s likely retaliation will hit their market share in China. The EU already imposes a 10% tariff on Chinese EVs, while Beijing already has 15% tariffs on European EVs.
Haiti PM appoints new government.
The new cabinet retains none of the ministers under former Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who was forced to resign after armed gangs prevented his return from a trip abroad. There’s hope the formation of a government is a sign Haiti is finally on the path to stability, though gangs still control a majority of the capital and haven’t yet recognised the new government’s authority.
IEA sees major oil surplus through 2030.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this projected surplus is partly due to the energy transition tapping the brakes on demand. It’s also partly due to a global focus on energy security spurring more supply. However, critics say the Paris-based body often overestimates the extent to which governments will meet their own energy transition commitments.
Hunter Biden convicted.
A jury in Delaware has convicted the US president’s son on three felony charges: two of lying about his drug use while purchasing a gun, and a third on unlawfully possessing that gun for 11 days. A judge will sentence him within the next 120 days.
TOP STORY
Macron rolls the dice with a snap election
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Just as the European Parliament was wrapping up its elections Sunday night, French President Emmanuel Macron nudged his way back into the spotlight by announcing France will now also elect a new legislature. In just 18 days from now!
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You might’ve noticed some headlines declaring that “the far right has surged” in Europe’s parliamentary elections, followed by a footnote clarifying that, okay, the pro-EU centre still has a 56% majority in Brussels (down from 59%).
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As ever, the truth is nuanced, so here’s what you need to know.
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First, remember that these elections spanned 27 countries and 380 million eligible voters. Several populist, nationalist, eurosceptic, and hard right parties were polling strongly, though the actual results have been mixed:
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Green parties made gains in the Nordic countries
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Centrists held strong in Portugal and Spain, and
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Nationalists / populists / the hard-right made gains in France and Germany, plus also Austria, Cyprus, Greece, the Netherlands.
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Zooming in a little, France’s National Rally (RN) more than doubled the vote of Macron’s centrist alliance, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second, winning 16% (up 5% from last election).
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Second, remember that European Parliament elections…
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Have lower turnout
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Don’t change national governments
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Are therefore treated ‘experimentally’ by many voters, and therefore
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Often reflect a higher proportion of protest votes.
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So in that context, you could interpret Macron’s decision to call snap national elections as both a) heeding the voters’ call, and b) daring them to do it again (this time much closer to home). His statement said as much:
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“At the end of the day I couldn’t just pretend nothing happened”
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“So I’m again giving you the choice of our parliamentary future”, and
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“The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation”
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He’ll hope higher turnout at home (typically 20% more than for European Parliament elections) will dilute some of the weekend’s anger.
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Third, remember that this snap election doesn’t spell the end of Macron. Even if he thinks a two-term limit is “damnable bullsh¡t”, his time in the Élysée doesn’t wrap until 2027. And his party already lost its majority in Paris two years ago, forcing him to rely on ad-hoc deal-making to pass legislation ever since.
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So what’s really at stake is whether the opposition now wins enough seats to re-shape or end that deal-making. The numbers could also force Macron to appoint a prime minister from another party, an arrangement known as ‘cohabitation’, which feels like the premise and title of a 1990s buddy comedy directed by the Farrelly brothers. Technically, though, Macron can still appoint anyone he wants.
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Fourth, remember that while opposition gains at home would limit Macron’s ability to move on domestic affairs, he’ll still be commander-in-chief. And he’ll still be running France’s (plus shaping Europe’s) approach to the world, though with some more sceptical voices in his ear.
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Really at stake, however, is the very credibility of that approach to the world. If voters again send him a message, the world will hear it too. And other leaders will start to look over his shoulder (though they’ll do that anyway ahead of 2027).
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And finally, it’s worth remembering that while Macron has his fans abroad, his disapproval ratings back home are hovering around 70%, as voters bristle at pension reforms, crime, living costs, massive Olympic spending, and beyond. So the same Parisians vowing to show their anger by (ahem) relieving themselves in the Seine river, will probably also show this same anger at the ballot box.
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So keep all this in mind as the headlines hit over the weeks ahead.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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The above is how we used to analyse elections when we worked in the foreign service: what’s happening, what’s driving it, and why it matters. Compare that with how a certain other high-profile outlet described the results instead:
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“President Emmanuel Macron of France, dealt a crushing defeat by the extreme right in European elections, dissolved the lower house of Parliament yesterday… Macron’s decision was a measure of the devastating nature of the European Parliament election results.”
(bolding is ours, obvs)
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Now, you didn’t come here to see us dunk on a massive media organisation. But does that organisation’s approach not go a little further in telling us how to feel? And does it not, therefore, risk fuelling the very thing it seems to fear?
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To be clear, we have zero interest in defending parties or minimising results. Rather, we have a 100% interest in respecting your intelligence. World leaders prefer that approach, and we’re building Intrigue because we’re convinced others must prefer it too.
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So all that to say yes, when French voters return to the polls in 18 days, there’s a solid chance they’ll clip Macron’s wings, and French power might look different on the other side. But that’s France, and that’s democracy.
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Also worth noting:
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While the (opposition) RN’s Marine Le Pen is widely expected to run for president again in 2027, the party’s leader is now Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old with 1.2 million TikTok followers. He’s emerging as a possible prime minister if voters shift the balance in the RN’s favour.
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Senior leaders in Moscow have mocked Macron and Scholz for their EU election results, claiming the numbers reflect opposition to Europe’s support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion.
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Macron heads to Italy for the G7 later this week. The populist party of Italy’s leader, Brothers of Italy, won the most European Parliament votes in Italy over the weekend.
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French voters will now go to the polls on June 30th, and then again for a second round on July 7th.
A MESSAGE FROM PUCK NEWS
What do C.E.O.s, movie moguls, and the West Wing have in common? They all read Puck.
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Puck is a platform for smart, engaging (and, yes, occasionally dishy) journalism, built in partnership with an elite team of authors covering the inside story at the nexus of Washington, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, fashion, sports and the art market.
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You probably know Puck journalist and founding partner, Julia Ioffe. She’s one of America’s foremost voices on Russia-U.S. relations, covering national security, foreign relations, and domestic politics from Washington and Europe.
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Julia’s reporting, as part of Puck’s daily political newsletter The Best & The Brightest, is truly a must-read for anyone even remotely connected to foreign policy and defense. She’s sent dispatches from the Aspen Security Forum, the Munich Security Conference, and much more.
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To put it simply, Julia’s access is unmatched. In her latest dispatch, she revealed the harried mind state of Biden’s National Security Council, which you can read for free today.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: Local authorities have detained a citizen of China who arrived in Taipei harbour on a speedboat. The man, a former naval captain, claims to be a defector but Taiwanese authorities suspect he might have been part of a wider plan to test Taiwan’s responses.
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🇺🇦 Ukraine: The US has lifted a ban on providing training and weapons to the controversial Azov Brigade, a unit within Ukraine’s military that rose to international prominence during the siege of Mariupol. Azov leaders say the brigade has moved away from its earlier neo-Nazi links.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Local diesel prices have jumped over 50% across Malaysia after the government narrowed various fuel subsidies, as part of its plan to tighten spending. Cuts on gasoline subsidies are expected to follow.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Bowing to opposition demands, the government has agreed to open an inquiry into lawmakers who allegedly acted on behalf of foreign powers. It comes after a parliamentary committee revealed several elected officials had been “witting or semi-witting” participants in foreign meddling within Canada.
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🇲🇼 Malawi: A plane carrying Vice President Saulos Chilima and nine others has crashed in the country’s mountainous north, killing all onboard. Chilima and Malawi’s former first lady were headed to the funeral of an ex-minister when their plane was warned to turn around due to bad weather.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on the latest aviation intrigue
PHOTO OF THE DAY
The dragon boat water parade in Tai O, Hong Kong. Credits: Reuters/Jonathan Wong
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Do you know what happens on the fifth day of the fifth month of the lunar calendar? It’s the annual Dragon Boat Festival, and it fell on June 10th this year. Marking the life of Qu Yuan, a poet and exiled statesman from ancient China, thousands raced in dragon boats across Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbour (and beyond), while others on-shore ate all the sticky rice dumplings (zongzi).
DAILY POLL
Will Macron become a lame duck president after July? |
Yesterday’s poll: If you were a Tesla shareholder, would you vote for Musk’s pay deal?
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🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 💸 Yes, that was the deal, and it’ll drive more growth (40%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📉 No, it’s unfathomable (58%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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📉 H.C: “Tesla stock is down over 60% from that 2022 high point. Giving Elon more stock will only drive the price down further, as he is using TSLA as a piggy bank to fund other ventures that will further distract him. Also, the judge was right: the original pay package was an inside deal.”
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💸 J.S.P: “The deal isn’t ‘unfair’ to shareholders if it was contingent on multiplying their share value significantly enough for them to agree with it.”
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✍️ B.J: “Ughh, both results feel unfair.”
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