🌍 Macron tests out a new China strategy

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🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇬🇪 Georgia: Thousands gathered in the capital Tbilisi on Sunday to protest the ruling Georgian Dream party. Georgians overwhelmingly support EU membership, and accuse Georgian Dream of undermining the country’s EU bid in order to assuage Russia.

2. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: US President Joe Biden landed in Belfast today (Tuesday) to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which largely ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. Tensions do remain, and the UK recently raised the terrorist threat level in Northern Ireland to “severe”.

3. 🇲🇲 Myanmar: The ruling junta in Myanmar sentenced a Christian pastor to six years in prison last week on charges of terrorism and unlawful association. Human rights groups say his jailing is politically motivated.

4. 🇬🇾 Guyana: The International Court of Justice will rule on a border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, despite Venezuelan objections. Guyana has controlled the oil-rich region in question since 1899.

5. 🇸🇩 Sudan: The return to civilian rule in Sudan has been delayed yet again after a dispute between the ruling junta and a paramilitary group. Sudan’s ruling junta had promised to start the transition today (11 April).

🇫🇷 FRANCE | GEOPOLITICS

Macron tests out a new approach to China

Briefly: French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited China last week (5-7 April). The trip was intended to recalibrate relations with China and encourage it to take a more active role in ending the Russo-Ukraine War.

While the idea was to show a united European front, the result was anything but. Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Macron, greeting him with military parades, lavish state dinners and hours of conversation.

As for von der Leyen, who had just delivered an assertive speech on China, Beijing rolled out very little beyond a social media campaign portraying her as an American puppet.

So who got what?

• President Xi didn’t really budge on French or EU concerns (such as China’s own permissive approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine)

• But Macron did budge on China’s concerns, promptly calling for a Europe less beholden to the US, and less “caught up” in Taiwan tensions

So one former French PM essentially summed it up as a win for Xi: “flattery works”.

Intrigue’s take: This trip was Macron’s latest attempt at a conciliatory approach to relations with the West’s rivals, distinguishing France from Washington’s more confrontational stance. And there’s nothing wrong with this in theory.

But in practice, Macron’s approach has already failed once: he had Putin on speed-dial before the Russo-Ukraine War, yet Putin invaded anyway. And now this same approach with China seems only to have emboldened Beijing, while alienating France’s oldest ally and Europe’s main security guarantor (the US).

So sure, give the softer approach a try. But it’ll always beg the question: who’s playing who?

Also worth noting:

• Unlike Macron’s visit, von der Leyen’s parallel trip was not a formal state visit. This partly explains the difference in welcome.

• Hours after Macron’s departure, China began three-day military drills to simulate an invasion and encirclement of Taiwan.

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Today’s briefing is sponsored by Meco

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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES | INTELLIGENCE

US intel leak rattles friend and foe alike

Briefly: US officials are rushing to contain damage caused by the online appearance of a tranche of highly classified documents.

The files – which cover the Russo-Ukraine war plus events in Korea, Israel and beyond – first appeared weeks ago via Discord, an online messaging platform popular with gamers. But the leak within an obscure corner of the internet drew little attention until The New York Times reported the story on Friday.

There are several theories on who leaked the material and why, including:

• An aggrieved US official seeking to damage US interests

• A mole or hack within the US system

• A US disinformation campaign (a theory favoured by Russian bloggers)

• A US official showing off among fellow gamers, or

• A member of the public finding and uploading lost classified material

The latter two theories might seem odd, but they’re entirely plausible. Western officials have recently leaked sensitive info via gaming platforms just to win an argument or two. And they’ve occasionally left classified material on a train, in a briefcase or even in a filing cabinet for sale at a thrift shop.

Intrigue’s take: This latest leak is significant in several ways. First, it reveals the existence of an advanced US satellite system known as ‘LAPIS’. When a new intel capability like this is revealed, adversaries have a better shot at thwarting it.

Second, the leak confirms publicly what’s long been known privately: that the US keeps a close eye on its allies. This risks undermining local support for US alliances around the world. And third, the leak will cause a clamming up of Western intelligence, as US agencies and allies limit what they’re willing to share.

So, regardless of who’s behind the leak, it seems to achieve the aims of US adversaries: sowing doubt, discord and suspicion across the US and its allies.

Also worth noting:

• The leaked intel discloses Russian attempts to secure munitions from US allies like Turkey and Egypt, and catalogues Ukraine’s vulnerabilities.

• This leak seems to involve dozens or hundreds of classified files. A decade ago, Edward Snowden’s mass leak involved him downloading 1.7 million files.

• The US isn’t the only one angry with Discord. Nintendo is now taking legal action against it after details of the next Zelda game were leaked.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• The costs of El Salvador’s crime crackdown, a year on ($)

• Chinese banks are ditching bad loans ($)

• Why Poland has stopped importing Ukrainian grain

• Land grabbing in Mongolia’s mining-driven economy

• Tesla’s new(ish) strategy? Cut prices.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

We were delighted to have former Australian ambassador and member of parliament Dave Sharma join our latest Intrigue Outloud to chat about Australia’s relations with China, the Pacific, and beyond. Check it out on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Plus be sure to subscribe to Dave’s weekly bulletin on what’s driving global developments.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Thursday’s poll: What do you think about AMLO’s letter to President Xi?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💯 It’s a classic AMLO political stunt (26%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🆘 It’s a genuine plea for China’s cooperation on fentanyl (5%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👋 It’s a slap directed at the US (9%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ☯️ It’s a bit of everything (59%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ J.N: “The US is increasingly considering Mexico as an industrial plant alternative to China. AMLO is sending a message to the US – dial back the rhetoric or risk pushing Mexico into the arms of its rival.”

• ☯️ C.M: “AMLO really has done a great job antagonizing two superior world powers…good luck with that!”