Plus: Meme of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why the Pacific is full of warships |
2️⃣ Italy finds a cave on the Moon |
3️⃣ Meme of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Don’t ask me why, but one of the first words they taught me in Spanish training was for ‘ornamental grillwork’ (ie, those metal bannisters you see adorning some houses). The original word (‘rejas’) can mean many other things, but they told me it’s ‘ornamental grillwork’.
I then spent the next 14 years in the foreign service crouched, cat-like, waiting for my chance to pounce in the national interest and praise someone’s ornamental grillwork. Never got it.
But darn it, wasn’t I ready? I was trained. I was warmed up, much like (sorry) the warships currently swarming the Pacific for the world’s largest naval exercise, our lead for today.
Biden cancels campaign event, tests positive for Covid.
The president was scheduled to deliver an address in Vegas. Meanwhile, reports are emerging that party heavyweights Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have now warned Biden he can’t beat Trump.
Chip stocks drop amid chip-war concerns.
Major chipmaking stocks have dropped after reports emerged that the US could further tighten export rules on semiconductor equipment to China. Nvidia stocks closed 6.6% lower on Wednesday, while competitor AMD lost 10%. Markets were also likely reacting to comments by Donald Trump, who suggested Taiwan (a major chips player) should pay more for its security.
European summit kicks off.
The UK is now hosting around 45 leaders from across Europe for the fourth meeting of the European Political Community. High on the agenda will be the continent’s continued support for Ukraine, the implications of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House, and migration. It’ll also be Keir Starmer’s first major hosting stint as British prime minister.
China suspends nuclear talks with US.
Beijing has blamed the move on continued US military support for Taiwan, and it comes just eight months after the US and China held their first formal nuclear talks in five years (after an earlier freeze).
TOP STORY
Why the Pacific is full of warships right now
July is peak travel season, and not just for school friends you haven’t seen since graduation but who are now flooding your feed with ‘candid’ snaps in their Santorini whites. But also for warships heading to the Pacific for naval exercises.
First, there’s China and Russia, who are now wrapping up their annual three-day Joint Sea drills in the South China Sea – they also steamed a separate patrol through the Sea and out across the broader western and northern Pacific.
For the exercises, a Chinese destroyer took the lead, accompanied by six smaller vessels (half each from China and Russia) – they got busy with live-fire drills, reconnaissance, search and rescue, and joint air defence activities.
Not to be outdone, the US has gathered 28 other nations for the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises, the world’s largest. They started out in 1971 among the ‘Five Eyes’ (🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿🇬🇧🇺🇸) and have since run every two years, expanding to European allies plus partners like Colombia and Indonesia.
This year, the Avengers-style drills run for five weeks from June 27th to August 1st, with 40 surface ships, three subs, 14 national land forces, 150 aircraft, and 25,000 personnel. They’ll simulate anti-submarine warfare, multi-ship surface warfare, and multinational amphibious landings.
So why conduct exercises?
They’re basically dress rehearsals for a war. Nothing gets close to the real thing, but the idea is to at least try, using real-life scenarios, firing real-life munitions, and even sinking real-life ships (decommissioned).
It’s all about ensuring combat readiness, trialling new tech and tactics, and gathering new data for models and war games, all while sending signals to your foes (who are always watching – that’s partly the point).
Then why conduct combined exercises?
The official reasons often stress ‘interoperability’ between friendly forces. It’s even in this year’s RIMPAC theme: ‘Partners: Integrated and Prepared’.
And that’s really about figuring how friends with different equipment, procedures, and even languages can work together if needed, whether for:
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Peace-time missions like surveilling illegal fishing, enforcing sanctions, and responding to natural disasters, or
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Worst case scenarios, like war.
But often the more important – if unstated – reason behind these joint drills is around publicly flexing an advantage that very few countries really have: alliances.
And then why conduct combined naval exercises?
Folks are still writing 60,000-word PhDs arguing over the modern role of a navy, but its three basic goals still hold: i) to project or deter power, ii) to secure marine resources, and iii) to secure the 80% of global trade that goes via sea.
And if you think about it, each of these three naval goals above is under pressure right now. Take just one example for each:
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i) China’s stated aim of “reunification” with Taiwan, or
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ii) Disputes over the South China Sea’s fish and energy resources, or
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iii) Continued Houthi attacks on civilian container ships.
So navies and alliances really go to the heart of a country’s ability to shape the world, or at least to stop others from shaping it first.
And that’s what these rival exercises are getting at in the Pacific this week.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
We’ve barely scratched the surface here. You could also look at how:
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Countries have long used exercises as cover for the real thing, like the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia or the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Countries have also mistaken exercises for the real thing, like when America’s Able Archer reportedly spooked the Soviets in 1983, and
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Countries have long used exercises to preview the real thing, like when the US debuted its new anti-sub aircraft at RIMPAC in 2012.
So when the stakes are that high, you inevitably get everyone watching everyone else, and doing so quite openly: eg, Japan’s joint chiefs basically narrated this year’s China-Russia exercises with constant press releases.
But you can bet they’ll all be doing it less openly, too: those antenna-clad ‘fishing trawlers’ suddenly eager to catch nearby mahimahi; those ‘survey aircraft’ suddenly fascinated by the local rock formations; and those ‘meteorological instruments’ suddenly riveted by regional rainfall levels.
Also worth noting:
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The joint China-Russia drills kicked off shortly after the US, Japan and South Korea held their first-ever ‘Freedom Edge’ exercises nearby.
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China was invited to participate in RIMPAC in 2014 and 2016. The US then uninvited it in 2018, after evidence emerged China had militarised features in the South China Sea (contrary to promises).
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A US aircraft was shot down by friendly fire at RIMPAC in 1996. The incident was put down to human error and all crew survived.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇮🇳India: The IMF has upgraded its 2024 economic outlook for India, forecasting 7% growth (up slightly from April) and solidifying its reputation as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. However, the IMF is warning of slower growth ahead as India bumps up against a lacklustre regional economic outlook.
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🇧🇾Belarus: Russian ally Belarus has expanded its visa-free program for 35 European countries in an effort to attract Western visitors back into the country. Its authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko has held power for 30 years, and drew international condemnation for his crackdown on protestors after the 2020 elections.
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🇵🇬Papua New Guinea (PNG): A high-level US civilian and military delegation has wrapped up a trip to Papua New Guinea aimed at “advancing the critical Pacific partnership". PNG’s strategic location has thrust it into ongoing US-China competition, with both the US and Australia signing local defence deals in the last year.
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🇻🇪Venezuela: Authorities loyal to President Maduro have arrested the security chief of Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition figure who’s been barred from running for office. Venezuelans head to the ballot box on July 28, with polls showing a replacement opposition candidate still ahead of President Maduro.
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🇦🇪UAE: Emirates Airlines, a UAE carrier, is holding talks with China this week aimed at expanding its presence and flight routes. Currently the airline operates 35 flights per week into China, a figure Emirates is “hopeful” will grow after this week’s dialogue.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s happening in other worlds:
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Society:Jack Schlossberg, the only grandson of JFK (and the son of the current US ambassador to Australia), has emerged as Vogue’s newest political correspondent ahead of the 2024 US elections.
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Science:An Italy-led team of international researchers has confirmed the existence of a cave on the moon, located 400km (250mi) from the site of the Apollo 11 landing.
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Tech:Xiaomi, China’s tech giant, has announced it’s opening a 24/7, humanless factory that can produce over 10 million phones a year.
MEME OF THE DAY
Some people were born to be memes. Daniel Craig is one of those people. So when he appeared in a new Loewe’s commercial rocking side bangs and a grandpa sweater, our resident meme lord Jeremy rose to the occasion with the above helpful embassy org chart. It’s quite simple, really:
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The trade gurus must look sharp to negotiate pistachio tariffs
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The intelligence officers must – um, we can’t talk about them
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The consular folks must burst into exotic jails to visit prisoners, and
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The cultural attachés must arrange puppet shows.
By the way, do you also like memes? We’re co-hosting a memes event at the Australian Embassy in DC, July 24th at 6pm. Register here to join us!
DAILY POLL
Do you think joint military exercises are inherently aggressive? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think officials should be allowed to receive gifts from other countries if disclosed?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, gifts between nations are a common diplomatic custom (39%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, the risk of bribery is too high (57%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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👎 D.D: “Gifts are personal and therefore denote personal relationships. While diplomacy often depends on the personal relationships (or lack of) between diplomats, it should not. We should strive for rational relationships between polities that could be serviced interchangeably by a capable diplomat.”
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👍 J.C: “Gift exchanges are a traditional greeting and should continue but there must be a value threshold placed on the gift given and the one received. Given ones should have cultural or historical significance between the countries. Gold bars, houses, and cars are not acceptable gifts.”
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✍️ J.E: “‘If disclosed’ is the operative clause.”
A technical difficulty barred many of you from leaving a poll comment yesterday, but it should now be fixed!
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