Plus: Coin of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Another huge election (in Europe) |
2️⃣ A friend meets a foe |
3️⃣ Coin of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Maybe they just didn’t like me (entirely possible), but a few times in my former career I found myself getting dropped from embassy guest lists depending on how relations with that country were tracking. The cold shoulder is a simple way to show you’re unhappy, right?
‘AidData’ researchers at William & Mary just documented another way to register your displeasure: turning off the tap. The team crunched data on $9.1B in China-funded projects over two decades in the Philippines, and the picture that emerges is interesting: the cash flowed liberally during Manila’s more China-friendly administrations, but slowed to a trickle during the rest.
Maybe it’s obvious, but still interesting to see it borne out in the data.
Anyway, today is a big day: 380 million Europeans get a chance to vote for the next European Parliament, with implications for us all. So let’s dive in.
30 reported dead in strike on UN school in central Gaza.
Israel says it hit the compound because Hamas members were operating there. Hamas-affiliated outlets deny this, and witnesses say the dead included families sheltering in the school. The Israeli military has announced the resumption of operations in central Gaza this week, saying Hamas units have regrouped there.
Putin threatens to arm West’s rivals.
During an audience with international journalists, the Russian president has said he’s considering sending long-range weapons to countries that might use them to strike Western targets. His comments come after Western leaders endorsed Ukraine using Western-supplied arms to strike back at targets inside Russia.
World leaders gather in Normandy for 80th D-Day anniversary.
Attendees at the commemoration include US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They’re marking the start of the WWII operation that landed thousands of Allied troops on the shores of Normandy ahead of France’s liberation from Nazi forces.
Nvidia becomes world’s second-most valuable company.
The US-based chip company has surpassed the $3T valuation mark, overtaking Apple. Only Microsoft and Apple have ever breached $3T.
UN chief calls for ban on fossil fuel ads.
Secretary-General António Guterres has called fossil fuel companies the “grandfathers of climate chaos”, and argued that advertising limits imposed on tobacco companies should apply to the fossil fuel industry as well. Last year was the hottest on record and the World Meteorological Organization said yesterday (Wednesday) the record could fall again as soon as this year.
TOP STORY
Major parliamentary election kicks off to shape EU’s future
380 million eligible voters across the EU’s 27 members start voting today (Thursday) to choose the next European Parliament.
It’s a four-day process, with results announced Sunday evening after the polls close. And that’s a huge lift, though it pales in comparison to the effort required to make the world’s biggest bureaucracy seem fun and intriguing. So here we go.
How it works:
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The European Parliament is like the bloc’s ‘lower house’
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The ‘upper house’ is the Council of the EU, made up of senior folks from the EU’s 27 governments, and
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The EU Commission is the executive.
Today’s election is for a new five-year lower house. And just like how big US states such as California or Texas send more reps to Congress, the EU’s biggest state (Germany) sends more reps to parliament than, say, Malta (its smallest).
So… who cares? The EU’s parliament has real power these days, including to:
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Pass EU laws and scrutinise the executive
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Approve the EU’s budget
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Approve any new EU members, and
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Approve the European Commission president (nominated by the EU’s 27 leaders).
So when you factor all that in, the EU’s 380 million voters are really weighing in to shape what the EU is, and what the EU does. And they’re doing that at a time when the EU itself can shape (or not) major issues, whether it’s Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing heft, the energy transition, and beyond.
So what are the polls saying?
We grew up seeing polls as a bit like your weather app, crunching data to tell you whether to pack an umbrella. But given the surprises this week (let alone this decade), polls are now feeling more like the equivalent of just squinting up into the sky with a finger in the air. But let’s do that anyway.
Lots will remain the same – It’s looking like the parliament’s two big ‘old guard’ parties will remain the big players: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists & Democrats, with the EPP still on top.
But lots will change too – Parties with more populist, nationalist, eurosceptic, and hard right views are polling well, and could end up as king/queen-makers.
Here’s how that might look:
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Europe’s president
The post of EU Commission president kinda emerged as an answer to the famous (if apocryphal) Kissinger question, “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?” And it’s become more powerful over the last couple of decades.
The current president is Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s former defence minister. She’s seeking re-election, but barely eked out a nine-vote majority last time (2019), so these populist parties could hold her fate in their hands.
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Migration policies
A more nationalist-populist parliament could mean stricter migration policies for the bloc, which has just seen a 17% increase in irregular arrivals in a year.
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Green policies
Some of those same smaller parties have also voiced disdain for von der Leyen’s EU Green Deal, which aims to make the bloc carbon-neutral by 2050. And…
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EU in the world
While Europe is broadly aligned on Ukraine, some of these populist parties have voiced scepticism. And if they end up holding the balance of power, they could (for example) trim EU defence spending and shape EU security priorities.
There’ll also be some serious horse-trading on plum positions like the EU’s foreign minister (sorry, ‘High Representative’). That’s currently Josep Borrell (Spain’s former foreign minister), and he’s been relatively outspoken in criticising Israel’s war in Gaza. There’s a solid chance he’ll get swapped out for someone else less front-footed.
So to close – over the next four days, maybe you could say the EU will vote in 27 different elections pretending to be a single election under a trench coat.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
The forces on display in this election are kinda similar to those now appearing elsewhere: there are folks who want to re-assert national identities, values, and policies towards some of the problems currently hitting the world.
And there are folks convinced that those same national identities and values thrive best – and develop better policies – when sitting within a broader family (a European one in this case).
There are shades, of course, but that second vision has long held the weight of power in the EU. In fact, the EU itself is partly the fruition of that vision. And its main centrist champions still look likely to hold after these elections.
But if the polling proves accurate, and Europeans nudge their parliament to the right, those centrist champions may need to adjust their approach.
Also worth noting:
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Europe’s parliament has 24 official languages, with simultaneous interpretation of lawmaker speeches available in all 24.
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Researchers from the European Digital Media Observatory say Russia’s ‘Pravda’ disinformation network has grown bigger this election, even after French authorities publicly outed it in February.
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Various European leaders are emerging as possible contenders to become the next president of the European Council (the grouping of 27 EU leaders). These include the current leader of Denmark (Mette Frederiksen) and the former leader of Portugal (António Costa).
A MESSAGE FROM THE MERGE
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇫 Afghanistan: The Taliban’s interior minister has visited the president of the United Arab Emirates (a top US partner), resurfacing questions on how the international community should deal with the group. The US has a $10M bounty on the Taliban official, who also leads the Haqqani network, considered a terrorist group in several jurisdictions.
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🇸🇮 Slovenia: Slovenia has become the latest EU state to recognise the State of Palestine following an unopposed parliamentary vote on Tuesday. Currently, 12 of the 27 EU countries recognise the State of Palestine, five of which are former East bloc countries who did so back in 1988.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: President Joko Widodo has said construction on the country’s ambitious new capital (Nusantara) will begin next month. The idea is to help ease congestion in the current capital (Jakarta), but carving a new $32.5B city out of the jungle has faced commercial and operational setbacks.
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🇨🇦 Canada: The Bank of Canada has become the first G7 central bank to cut rates this cycle, dropping them from 5% to 4.75%. While bank chief Tiff Macklem has warned against Canada’s rates diverging too far from the US, for now he’s saying "let's just enjoy the moment for a bit.”
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🇱🇧 Lebanon: Three gunmen attacked the US Embassy in Beirut on Tuesday morning with at least one reportedly wearing Islamic State insignia. Islamic State hasn’t yet commented on the attack, which came amid renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanon’s southern border.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what some folks are celebrating today, 6 June
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🇸🇪 Swedes celebrate their national day in honour of King Gustav Vasa’s election in 1523, and the adoption of a new constitution in 1809.
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🇰🇷 South Koreans are marking Memorial Day to honour those who’ve lost their lives while serving their Republic.
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And 🇬🇧 Brits shifted this year’s National Fish & Chip Day to coincide with D-Day (above), marking the meal’s key WWII role: Churchill called it “the good companion” and exempted it from rationing to keep up morale.
COIN OF THE DAY
Credits: Royal Australian Mint.
Move aside national leaders and historic figures: Australians have decided to add an animated dog to their currency. For our readers who are non-Australians, non-kids, or non-adults-who-know-kids, Bluey emerged from Brisbane in 2018 to become a TV hit across 60 countries, and the most-streamed series on the planet.
So Australia’s new, limited-edition coins will feature one with Bluey (a six-year-old blue-heeler), a second with her family (the Heelers), and a third with Bluey and her little sister Bingo dressed up as imaginary grannies (don’t ask).
DAILY POLL
Will you be following the EU parliamentary election? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think these electoral results are a 'loss' for Modi?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ❌ Yes, he overpromised and underdelivered (49%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✅ No, his party won the election and he'll still be PM (22%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⏰ It's too early to tell (22%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
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❌ A.P: “As an Indian, these were possibly the ideal results: proving that our democracy is still up to the task to check seemingly unstoppable bulwarks.”
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⏰ J.G: “Modi will be PM. Will there be a break in his authoritarian tendencies or will he consolidate further power? Depends on his partners.”
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✍️ C.B: “Two nights ago my friend from Uttar Pradesh told me that the election forecasts were vastly over-inflated by Modi-worshipping news outlets in India."
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❌ L.D: “He won the fight, but may have lost the war.”
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