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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ Another huge election (in Europe) |
2๏ธโฃ A friend meets a foe |
3๏ธโฃ Coin of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Maybe they just didnโt like me (entirely possible), but a few times in my former career I found myself getting dropped from embassy guest lists depending on how relations with that country were tracking. The cold shoulder is a simple way to show youโre unhappy, right?
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โAidDataโ researchers at William & Mary just documented another way to register your displeasure: turning off the tap. The team crunched data on $9.1B in China-funded projects over two decades in the Philippines, and the picture that emerges is interesting: the cash flowed liberally during Manilaโs more China-friendly administrations, but slowed to a trickle during the rest.
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Maybe itโs obvious, but still interesting to see it borne out in the data.
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Anyway, today is a big day: 380 million Europeans get a chance to vote for the next European Parliament, with implications for us all. So letโs dive in.

THE HEADLINES
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30 reported dead in strike on UN school in central Gaza.
Israel says it hit the compound because Hamas members were operating there. Hamas-affiliated outlets deny this, and witnesses say the dead included families sheltering in the school. The Israeli military has announced the resumption of operations in central Gaza this week, saying Hamas units have regrouped there.
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Putin threatens to arm Westโs rivals.ย
During an audience with international journalists, the Russian president has said heโs considering sending long-range weapons to countries that might use them to strike Western targets. His comments come after Western leaders endorsed Ukraine using Western-supplied arms to strike back at targets inside Russia.
World leaders gather in Normandy for 80th D-Day anniversary.ย
Attendees at the commemoration include US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Theyโre marking the start of the WWII operation that landed thousands of Allied troops on the shores of Normandy ahead of Franceโs liberation from Nazi forces.ย
Nvidia becomes worldโs second-most valuable company.ย
The US-based chip company has surpassed the $3T valuation mark, overtaking Apple. Only Microsoft and Apple have ever breached $3T.
UN chief calls for ban on fossil fuel ads.
Secretary-General Antรณnio Guterres has called fossil fuel companies the โgrandfathers of climate chaosโ, and argued that advertising limits imposed on tobacco companies should apply to the fossil fuel industry as well. Last year was the hottest on record and the World Meteorological Organization said yesterday (Wednesday) the record could fall again as soon as this year.
TOP STORY
Major parliamentary election kicks off to shape EUโs future

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380 million eligible voters across the EUโs 27 members start voting today (Thursday) to choose the next European Parliament.
Itโs a four-day process, with results announced Sunday evening after the polls close. And thatโs a huge lift, though it pales in comparison to the effort required to make the worldโs biggest bureaucracy seem fun and intriguing. So here we go.
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How it works:ย
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The European Parliament is like the blocโs โlower houseโ
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The โupper houseโ is the Council of the EU, made up of senior folks from the EUโs 27 governments, and
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The EU Commission is the executive.
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Todayโs election is for a new five-year lower house. And just like how big US states such as California or Texas send more reps to Congress, the EUโs biggest state (Germany) sends more reps to parliament than, say, Malta (its smallest).
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Soโฆ who cares? The EUโs parliament has real power these days, including to:
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Pass EU laws and scrutinise the executive
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Approve the EUโs budget
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Approve any new EU members, and
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Approve the European Commission president (nominated by the EUโs 27 leaders).
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So when you factor all that in, the EUโs 380 million voters are really weighing in to shape what the EU is, and what the EU does. And theyโre doing that at a time when the EU itself can shape (or not) major issues, whether itโs Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine, Chinaโs growing heft, the energy transition, and beyond.
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So what are the polls saying?ย
We grew up seeing polls as a bit like your weather app, crunching data to tell you whether to pack an umbrella. But given the surprises this week (let alone this decade), polls are now feeling more like the equivalent of just squinting up into the sky with a finger in the air. But letโs do that anyway.
Lots will remain the same – Itโs looking like the parliamentโs two big โold guardโ parties will remain the big players: the centre-right European Peopleโs Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists & Democrats, with the EPP still on top.
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But lots will change too – Parties with more populist, nationalist, eurosceptic, and hard right views are polling well, and could end up as king/queen-makers.
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Hereโs how that might look:
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Europeโs president
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The post of EU Commission president kinda emerged as an answer to the famous (if apocryphal) Kissinger question, โWho do I call if I want to call Europe?โ And itโs become more powerful over the last couple of decades.
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The current president isย Ursula von der Leyen, Germanyโs former defence minister. Sheโs seeking re-election, but barely eked out a nine-vote majority last time (2019), so these populist parties could hold her fate in their hands.
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Migration policies
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A more nationalist-populist parliament could mean stricter migration policies for the bloc, which has just seen a 17% increase in irregular arrivals in a year.
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Green policies
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Some of those same smaller parties have also voiced disdain for von der Leyenโs EU Green Deal, which aims to make the bloc carbon-neutral by 2050. Andโฆ
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EU in the world
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While Europe is broadly aligned on Ukraine, some of these populist parties have voiced scepticism. And if they end up holding the balance of power, they could (for example) trim EU defence spending and shape EU security priorities.
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Thereโll also be some serious horse-trading on plum positions like the EUโs foreign minister (sorry, โHigh Representativeโ). Thatโs currently Josep Borrell (Spainโs former foreign minister), and heโs been relatively outspoken in criticising Israelโs war in Gaza. Thereโs a solid chance heโll get swapped out for someone else less front-footed.
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So to close – over the next four days, maybe you could say the EU will vote in 27 different elections pretending to be a single election under a trench coat.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The forces on display in this election are kinda similar to those now appearing elsewhere: there are folks who want to re-assert national identities, values, and policies towards some of the problems currently hitting the world.
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And there are folks convinced that those same national identities and values thrive best – and develop better policies – when sitting within a broader family (a European one in this case).
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There are shades, of course, but that second vision has long held the weight of power in the EU. In fact, the EU itself is partly the fruition of that vision. And its main centrist champions still look likely to hold after these elections.
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But if the polling proves accurate, and Europeans nudge their parliament to the right, those centrist champions may need to adjust their approach.
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Also worth noting:ย
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Europeโs parliament has 24 official languages, with simultaneous interpretation of lawmaker speeches available in all 24.
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Researchers from the European Digital Media Observatory say Russiaโs โPravdaโ disinformation network has grown bigger this election, even after French authorities publicly outed it in February.
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Various European leaders are emerging as possible contenders to become the next president of the European Council (the grouping of 27 EU leaders). These include the current leader of Denmark (Mette Frederiksen) and the former leader of Portugal (Antรณnio Costa).
A MESSAGE FROM THE MERGE
If you like business and technology, youโll LOVE thisโฆ
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The Merge dispenses weekly knowledge bombs on the intersection of military technology, trends, and business happeningsโdelivered in an edgy, enjoyable way.
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Itโs the hottest source of intel read by industry, the Pentagon, and Congress.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ

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๐ฆ๐ซย Afghanistan: The Talibanโs interior minister has visited the president of the United Arab Emirates (a top US partner), resurfacing questions on how the international community should deal with the group. The US has a $10M bounty on the Taliban official, who also leads the Haqqani network, considered a terrorist group in several jurisdictions.
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๐ธ๐ฎย Slovenia: Slovenia has become the latest EU state to recognise the State of Palestine following an unopposed parliamentary vote on Tuesday. Currently, 12 of the 27 EU countries recognise the State of Palestine, five of which are former East bloc countries who did so back in 1988.
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๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: President Joko Widodo has said construction on the countryโs ambitious new capital (Nusantara) will begin next month. The idea is to help ease congestion in the current capital (Jakarta), but carving a new $32.5B city out of the jungle has faced commercial and operational setbacks.
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๐จ๐ฆย Canada: The Bank of Canada has become the first G7 central bank to cut rates this cycle, dropping them from 5% to 4.75%. While bank chief Tiff Macklem has warned against Canadaโs rates diverging too far from the US, for now heโs saying “let’s just enjoy the moment for a bit.โ
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๐ฑ๐งย Lebanon: Three gunmen attacked the US Embassy in Beirut on Tuesday morning with at least one reportedly wearing Islamic State insignia. Islamic State hasnโt yet commented on the attack, which came amid renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanonโs southern border.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what some folks are celebrating today, 6 June
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๐ธ๐ชย Swedes celebrate their national dayย in honour of King Gustav Vasaโs election in 1523, and the adoption of a new constitution in 1809.
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๐ฐ๐ท South Koreans are marking Memorial Day to honour those whoโve lost their lives while serving their Republic.
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And ๐ฌ๐งย Brits shifted this yearโs National Fish & Chip Day to coincide with D-Day (above), marking the mealโs key WWII role: Churchill called it โthe good companionโ and exempted it from rationing to keep up morale.
COIN OF THE DAY

Credits: Royal Australian Mint.
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Move aside national leaders and historic figures: Australians have decided to add an animated dog to their currency. For our readers who are non-Australians, non-kids, or non-adults-who-know-kids, Bluey emerged from Brisbane in 2018 to become a TV hit across 60 countries, and the most-streamed series on the planet.
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So Australiaโs new, limited-edition coins will feature one with Bluey (a six-year-old blue-heeler), a second with her family (the Heelers), and a third with Bluey and her little sister Bingo dressed up as imaginary grannies (donโt ask).
DAILY POLL
Will you be following the EU parliamentary election? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think these electoral results are a ‘loss’ for Modi?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย โ Yes, he overpromised and underdelivered (49%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ No, his party won the election and he’ll still be PM (22%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โฐ It’s too early to tell (22%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (6%)
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Your two cents:
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โย A.P: โAs an Indian, these were possibly the ideal results: proving that our democracy is still up to the task to check seemingly unstoppable bulwarks.โ
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โฐ J.G: โModi will be PM. Will there be a break in his authoritarian tendencies or will he consolidate further power? Depends on his partners.โ
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โ๏ธ ย C.B: โTwo nights ago my friend from Uttar Pradesh told me that the election forecasts were vastly over-inflated by Modi-worshipping news outlets in India.”
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โย L.D: โHe won the fight, but may have lost the war.โ
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