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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ The EUโs new line-up |
2๏ธโฃ Malaysiaโs king heads to China |
3๏ธโฃ On this day |
Hi Intriguer. I always thought I was pretty resilient to criticism until Helen and I gave a talk at Australiaโs foreign ministry last week, and I got some robust feedback about my hair looking like I just rolled out of bed. I went out and got a haircut within hours.
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But itโs hard to think of someone with thicker skin than EU leader Ursula von der Leyen, whoโs just emerged from a bruising few weeks of negotiations to announce her new Commission line-up for the next five years. Itโs more interesting (and important) than it sounds, I promise. So letโs get to it.
THE HEADLINES
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Fed cuts rates by half a point.
The US Federal Reserve has announced its much-anticipated interest rate cut and signalled more to come. Itโs the Fedโs first cut in over four years, and the half-point move is in line with what we foreshadowed on Tuesday. In a nutshell, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: โThis recalibration of our policy stance willย help maintain the strength of the economy and the labour market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation.โ
More Hezbollah devices explode.
A second round of electronic device explosions aimed at Hezbollah has left another 20 dead, a day after simultaneous pager blasts hit thousands more across Lebanon and Syria. Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has announced Israelโs war is entering a new phase: โThe centre of gravity is shifting northward, meaning we are increasingly diverting forces, resources and energy towards the northโ (ie, towards Hezbollah, the listed terrorist group based in Lebanon).
Tokyo demands answers after Japanese child killed in China.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has โstrongly urgedโ Beijing to provide an explanation after a 10-year-old Japanese child died from a stabbing near his school in China. The attackerโs motive remains unknown, though other recent incidents have raised fears of strong local nationalist sentiment spilling over into violence against foreigners.
India overtakes China in key stock benchmark.
Indiaโs share in the MSCI All-Country World Index has overtaken Chinaโs, as rising demand for Indian stocks pushes the country into sixth place. The MSCI index tracks market weight for almost all global stocks on the open markets. Both India (2.33%) and China (2.06%) are still far behind the US (63%).
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Zelensky says โvictory planโ now ready.
The Ukrainian president has announced heโs finalised a peace plan to be presented to US President Joe Biden later this month. Ukraine has switched to a more offensive strategy in recent months, as it seeks to build its leverage against Russia.
TOP STORY
Meet the EUโs next Commission
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While exploding pagers have dominated the headlines, something else big has happened. Weโre talking of course about EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiling her highly-anticipated commissioner line-up.ย
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First, hereโs a primer. The Commission functions a bit like a cabinet, but its members are called commissioners and they arenโt picked by the president. Rather, every EU country nominates one commissioner each and sends them packing to Brussels (we feel obliged to drop the famous Borgen TV line here: โIn Brussels no one can hear you screamโ).
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The president then has the tough job of stewarding testy negotiations among the 27 EU countries to decide which commissioner gets which job: they all want the big ones.
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This yearโs process has been particularly bumpy. Newly re-elected von der Leyen was hoping to have her team up and running by 1 November (just ahead of the US election) but thatโs not working out for a few reasons, including:
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Fear of a dude-heavy gender balance: to avert this, von der Leyen has pushed countries to swap out male nominees for women, which has reportedly led toโฆ
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Political gridlock in Slovenia, where thereโs division over the new female nominee as well as von der Leyenโs pressure tactics, plusโฆ
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A sudden mutiny by French commissioner Thierry Breton, who announced his shock resignation a day before von der Leyen presented her team to the public.
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So now the final hurdle is to get each commissioner approved by EU lawmakers.
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And with that primer, here are five of the most interesting commissioner names:ย
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๐ช๐ช Kaja Kallas – High Representative for Foreign and Security Policyย
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Thereโs no surprise here – Kallas stepped down as Estonian prime minister in July in exchange for the role of the EUโs top diplomat. Sheโs one of the EUโs most outspoken leaders against Russia, which is likewise not a surprise: Russia borders (and has previously invaded) Estonia, and has even issued a warrant for Kallasโs arrest.
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What her appointment means:ย von der Leyen has given most of Europeโs security portfolios to some of the blocโs most ardently pro-Ukraine countries, who also happen to border Russia (Estonia, Finland, Lithuania).ย That sends a signal that, notwithstandingย any signs of fatigue, the EU still sees Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine as an existential issue.
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๐ช๐ธ Teresa Ribera – Executive VP for the Clean, Just and Competitive Transition
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This is basically the EUโs competition enforcer. Given the EU is a heavy hitter when it comes to antitrust, this role is often seen as the EU presidentโs second-in-command.
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As for Ribera, her CV has more pages than a Tolstoy novel: sheโs been a law professor, civil administrator, and has been on advisory boards for the WEF, the UN and more. She then became Spainโs minister for the ecological transition back in 2018, and has earned a reputation for being a straight shooter.
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What her appointment means:ย Youโll note von der Leyen has given Riberaโs job title a green spin. Thereโs been a notable EU rebalance towards economic over ecological concerns lately, so these name changes probably help keep progressive voices onside.
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๐ธ๐ฐ Maroลก ล efฤoviฤ – Trade and Economic Security, Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency
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This is basically the EUโs trade minister, and the role goes to Slovakiaโs Maroลก ล efฤoviฤ, who’s seen in Brussels as a safe pair of hands after several stints as an EU commissioner.ย
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Heโs a former career diplomat who served in Zimbabwe, Canada, Israel, and the EU, before making an unsuccessful run for Slovakian president in 2019.ย
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What his appointment means: His job title (economic security) reflects the worldโs changing approach to trade, which is increasingly seen through a security lens. Itโs also worth noting that Slovakia has been cultivating warmer ties with China lately, so giving the EUโs trade policy a Slovak face might help smooth things over in Beijing.
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๐ง๐ช Hadja Lahbib –ย Commissioner for Preparedness, Crisis Management, Equality
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Hadja Lahbib is proof you can have it all: the former journalist, director, TV presenter and current Belgian foreign minister is about to tuck some serious EU experience under her belt.
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What her appointment means: von der Leyen isnโt one to let others take the reins during a crisis, so Belgium might be disappointed it didnโt bag a bigger portfolio.
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๐ฑ๐บย Christophe Hansen – Commissioner for Agriculture and Food
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A Luxembourgian member of the EUโs parliament, Hansen has shown TeflonTM abilities to avoid scandal. Agriculture also runs in his family: his cousin is the Agriculture minister in Luxembourg (yes, Luxembourg has farms; no, they donโt grow money trees).
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What his appointment means: von der Leyen is no political amateur, and you can see that in the way over half her new Commission members (including Hansen) hail from her own party.ย It also helps explain how such a tiny country got such a key role.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Like any new cabinet, this one sends signals to the world about the EUโs priorities for the next five years. Here are two more signals weโre picking up:
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First, two of the largest EU economies (France and Spain) are in Commission roles focused on competitiveness, which really gels with last weekโs Draghiโs report: the EU knows itโs losing its edge, and is determined to get it back; and
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Second, von der Leyen has appointed a commissioner from Italyโs ruling hard-right party to a role focused on European cohesion. That suggests a pragmatism in incorporating some right-leaning voices as part of the solution.
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All combined, von der Leyenโs line-up signals an EU that sees serious challenges ahead, and it isnโt backing down.
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Also worth noting:
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Germanyโs nominee is Ursula von der Leyen herself.ย Franceโs replacement nominee is Stรฉphane Sรฉjournรฉ, who takes the important industrial strategy portfolio after serving as French foreign minister.
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EU commissioners have to take an oath before being sworn into office. Outgoing Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager chatted with our friends over at โWhatโs up EUโ about her experience: โWe were bussed to Luxembourg, standing in front of 37 judges in their full gear, looking at you. You are taking the oath that the Treaties will guide you. An oath that you will take no instructions and seek no instructions from anyone.โ
A MESSAGE FROM ELECTION INTRIGUE
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Another week, another great edition of Election Intrigue. This week, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Washington editor Kristen Talman will cover:
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US diplomats face a 22% pay cut, so weโve buzzed around Washington to figure out what Congressional and State Department leaders are doing ahead of the September 30th deadline.
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Overseas voters and US diplomatic missions are gearing up to ship ballots stateside, but some ballots might not arrive on time as key swing states face legal challenges.
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Plus: Iran election interference, UAE state visits, and Bidenโs trip to the UNโs Summit for the Future; all on the docket.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฆ๐ฒย Armenia: Local prosecutors allege that Moscow recruited several insurgents (now on trial) to overthrow Armeniaโs government. Armenia was a traditional ally until Russia invaded Ukraine and then declined to help Armenia in clashes with Azerbaijan (despite having troops stationed in the area).ย
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๐ฉ๐ชย Germany: Berlin has reportedly halted new weapons exports to Israel while it deals with various legal challenges, according to Reuters. A government spokesperson has said thereโs โno German arms export boycott against Israelโ, but sales seem to have stopped after increasing ten-fold last year.ย
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๐ฒ๐พ Malaysia: At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Malaysia’s king is visiting China from today (Thursday), a first for any Malaysian monarch in a decade. While itโs a largely ceremonial role, King Sultan Ibrahim has occasionally weighed in on substantive issues since taking over the rotating role back in January.
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๐จ๐ฑย Chile: Google has suspended plans to develop a major $200M data centre in Chile amid environmental concerns. The tech giant obtained building permits in 2020 but quickly found itself tied up with the Chilean court system as locals worried the centre would pull from Chileโs water resources.
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๐ธ๐ฉย Sudan: The leaders of Sudan and South Sudan have agreed to allow landlocked South Sudanโs oil exports to resume travel through neighbouring Sudan, in addition to re-opening humanitarian corridors. It remains unclear, however, if the other party in Sudanโs civil war (the Rapid Support Forces) will play ball.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worldsโฆ
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๐ย Art: Convicted art scammer Anna Sorokin (aka Anna Delvey) has debuted on Dancing with the Stars wearing a bedazzled ankle monitor, in a performance that required law enforcement approval.
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โฝ Sport:ย Since soccer superstar Messi left Paris Saint-Germain for Inter Miami, the value of Americaโs Major League Soccer teams has grown by $3.2B.
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โ๏ธ Travel:ย Japan Airlines is offering some travellers who book an international flight to Tokyo free domestic flights to explore the rest of the country.
ON THIS DAY
New Zealand women marching for the right to vote. Credit: Government of New Zealand
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On this day in 1893, New Zealand became the worldโs first country to extend voting rights to women. Just two months later, Kiwis headed to the polls for national elections, with women casting their ballots for the first time. The shift was watched closely worldwide, with many other suffrage movements drawing inspiration.
DAILY POLL
If you were nominated to a cabinet, which portfolio would you choose and why? |
Yesterdayโs poll: What do you think this Israeli operation against Hezbollah means?
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฅ Another regional escalation with no real gain (38%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ Another crack in the eventual demise of Hezbollah (55%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (7%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ย R.N: The information the Israeli operation gathered is immense. This will also put fear into Hezbollah not knowing what else can explode.โ
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๐ฅย B.M.D: โThis has set an unjustifiable, horrific precedent and we should all dread what’s yet to come.โ
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โ๏ธ M.S: โI think this is an intelligence black swan event; even Tom Clancy might have had trouble committing to this plot point. It may fundamentally fracture trust, hobbling it into obscurity, or it may redouble Hezbollah’s efforts to strike a spectacular blow against Israel to show it’s still in the game.โ
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