๐ŸŒ Milei wins Argentina’s presidency


Plus: India is ushered out of the Maldives

Hi Intriguer. Three very different names trended over the weekend, leaving me with three very different thoughts on our world.

The first is Travis Head, who helped Australia win the Menโ€™s Cricket World Cup while ~2 billion folks watched live. For non-cricket fans (like me), itโ€™s a reminder that the worldโ€™s attention isnโ€™t always where we think.

The second name is Javier Milei, just elected Argentinaโ€™s (and maybe the worldโ€™s) first libertarian president. More on him below, though my thought here is that any status quo in our world now often seems only a maverick away from crumbling.

And the third is Sam Altman, ousted abruptly on Friday night from the AI powerhouse he co-founded (OpenAI). His departure has been bigger news than the AI summit of 28 governments earlier this month. And that probably says something about where AIโ€™s centre of gravity sits right now.

– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

Israelโ€™s latest footage.ย The Israeli military has released what itโ€™s describing as footage of Hamas taking Israeli hostages inside Gazaโ€™s Al-Shifa hospital (plus a fortified Hamas tunnel underneath). But global attention seems to be shifting to reports of an impending hostage deal between Israel and Hamas.

Microsoft taps former OpenAI CEO. Just days after Sam Altman was suddenly ousted from his own startupโ€™s board, his blindsided investor (Microsoft) has recruited him for another role. This rounds out what must be one of the most stunning tech firings in history.

Another ship taken. Yemenโ€™s Houthi forces say theyโ€™ve captured a cargo ship affiliated with an Israeli billionaire, but Israeli authorities say the Japanese-operated ship doesnโ€™t have any links to Israel at all. Shipping ownership can get murky at times, and the relevant billionaire is declining to comment for now.

Zelensky fires chief military medic. Ukraineโ€™s president has confirmed the removal of Ukraineโ€™s military medic chief, demanding โ€œa fundamentally new level of medical support for our soldiersโ€. Rumours about the sacking had been swirling after reports about the poor quality of the armyโ€™s medical supplies surfaced.

Rosalynn Carter dies, aged 96. Among many other tributes, the former US First Lady will be remembered as a passionate advocate for mental health.

TOP STORY

Outsider candidate Javier Milei has been elected Argentinaโ€™s next president

Populist outsider wins Argentinaโ€™s presidency

The populist-libertarian Javier Milei will be Argentina's next president from December 10th, after he trounced the ruling party's candidate yesterday (Sunday) by the largest margin since Argentina returned to democracy in 1983.

So Milei will soon take the helm of Argentina's $622B economy: itโ€™s Latin America's third-largest, home to 46 million people, and with a seat at the G20.

Mileiโ€™s victory is pretty remarkable. If you were to draw up a list of things a candidate in Argentina shouldn't do, Milei went ahead and did them anyway. He:

  • referred to the Pope (who hails from Argentina) as โ€œevilโ€

  • re-opened old wounds from the country's dictatorship (1976-1983)

  • praised the late British leader Margaret Thatcher (reviled by many locally for her role in the UK-Argentina war of 1982), and

  • even mocked Argentinaโ€™s late soccer legend Maradona (though he drew the line at any criticism of present-day superstar, Lionel Messi).

And yet somehow, Milei still won. Why? Three quick reasons:

First, voters were angry at Argentina's ruling Peronists. Holding power for 16 of the past 20 years, the interventionist party now leaves behind a country with 40% poverty, 143% inflation, and $22B in debt payments due next year.

Second, Milei sought to smooth his edges, apologising to the pope, walking back some proposals, winning endorsements from mainstream figures (including a former centre-right president), and dropping his chainsaw schtick at rallies.

And third, he connected with younger voters, many of whom know only an Argentina in crisis (and who are active on Tiktok, where Milei has dominated).

In the end, many voters veered between anger at what the outgoing party leaves behind, and fear over what Milei might doย next (heโ€™s vowed to slash spending and replace the peso with the US dollar, while also referring to leftists as โ€œshitโ€).

Once he takes power next month, Milei looks set to be constrained by:

  • the sheer scale of the challenge he inherits

  • the sheer difficulty of his proposed solutions, and

  • his lack of a party machine across Argentinaโ€™s dispersed political system.

So with that in mind, it seems voters opted for a constrained Milei rather than continued, unrestrained Peronism.

INTRIGUEโ€™S TAKE

One reason investors have long been wary of Argentina is a sense that the place just doesnโ€™t change. So one way to look at Milei's victory is as a rebuke of that very idea: folks in Argentina have clearly voted for change here.

And that partly explains why business leaders, like the CEO of Argentina's largest firm, are cheering Milei's victory.

For world leaders, Argentina's vote for change will mean different things: Milei hasn't shied away from criticising others (including Argentina's top trading partners, China and Brazil), while pledging closer ties to the US, and even hinting at a softening in Argentina's territorial dispute with the UK.

But realistically, much will depend on how he translates rhetoric into reality. E.g., how do you even dollarise an economy that has no dollars? With voters clearly running low on patience, Milei doesn't have much time to deliver.

Also worth noting:

  • Argentinaโ€™s immediate neighbours (Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay) have sent conciliatory messages for now. Further north, Colombia's left-leaning president tweeted that Mileiโ€™s victory was a "sad day" for Latin America.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโ€ฆ

  1. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณย China: Australia has accused China of โ€œunsafe and unprofessional conductโ€ after a Peopleโ€™s Liberation Army-Navy ship deployed sonars injuring several Australian navy divers. The divers were reportedly untangling fishing nets from their shipโ€™s engines in international waters.

  2. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชย Germany: Turkish President ErdoฤŸan flew to Germany on Friday for a rather low-key visit. They had a lengthy agenda (migration, trade, Ukraine), but Berlin was careful not to draw attention to the visit given ErdoฤŸanโ€™s ongoing criticism of Israel, which Germany staunchly supports.

  3. ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ปย Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu, the newly-inaugurated president, has formally requested the withdrawal of 70 Indian troops stationed on the archipelago. Muizzu has sought closer ties to Beijing but promises the Indian forces wonโ€™t be replaced with Chinese personnel.

  4. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡นย Guatemala: A prosecutor has moved to strip president-elect Arevalo of his immunity over claims he encouraged students to occupy a key university. Critics say itโ€™s an attempt by corrupt officials to prevent Arevalo (an anti-corruption figure) from taking power in January.

  5. ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ทย Liberia: Former football star and current Liberian President George Weah has conceded defeat after last weekโ€™s runoff elections. The 78-year-old winner and former vice president, Joseph Boakai, pledges to invest in infrastructure, tackle poverty, and crack down on corruption.ย 

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Your weekly roundup of the worldโ€™s stranger newsย 

  • In Dubai, golf champion Rory McIlroy found himself in an awkward situation after his ball landed in the lap of a spectator. Thankfully for all involved, the golfer didnโ€™t have to play it as it lay.

  • Italy has banned lab-grown meat, with both supporters and opponents of the ban labelling each other as anti-Italian.

  • A Belgium-bound cargo plane has had to return to New York after a horse escaped its stall aboard the aircraft.ย 

  • Canadian police have responded to reports of mysterious screams, only to find the culprit was just a very sad goat.ย 

  • US astronauts carrying out routine maintenance on a space station have lost their toolbag (itโ€™s now visible from Earth with binoculars).

  • And a ransomware gang has reported its own victim to US authorities after the target failed to promptly disclose itโ€™d been hacked.

FLAG OF THE DAY

Antwerp, Belgiumโ€™s most populous province, rocks a flag so full of shapes and primary colours itโ€™d make Piet Mondrian blush. The red, yellow, and blue represent three of the territoryโ€™s most famous cities (Antwerp, Mechelen, and Turnhout), while the chequered pattern pays homage to medieval Flemish rebels.ย 

Our rating: 8.9/10

DAILY POLL

Do you think switching to the US dollar could help Argentina's economy?

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Thursdayโ€™s poll: Do you think deals with third-party countries are a good idea to manage migration?

๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ ๐Ÿ‘ Yes, global challenges require global responses (64%)

๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‘Ž No, the human cost is unacceptable (32%)

โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ โœ๏ธ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

  • ๐Ÿ‘ G.G: โ€œIt is the only viable solution for countries who are overwhelmed with a never ending stream of migrants.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ‘Ž G.M: โ€œAs an Australian who has witnessed this type of โ€˜solutionโ€™ in action over many years – the suffering, loss of dignity and extreme mental health consequences are unacceptable. The third-party countries are often not appropriately resourced to manage the program, and current media reports are highlighting significant opportunities for corruption in the contracting process.โ€