🌍 North Korea scraps key military pact with the South

Hi Intriguer. Let me tell you a tale of two brands.

The first is that of North Korea (our lead story below), which dropped a sassy statement yesterday describing its democratic neighbours as “gangsters” and “hysterical”. Part of the reason it projects this self-image to the world is for deterrence: ‘don’t come too close to us, we might bite’.

The second brand is that of the EU, where folks often joke that diplomacy hinges entirely on whether or not the EU is “concerned”. To my delight, there’s even a Twitter account tracking the EU’s level of “concern”. This EU moderation is partly just a function of having to corral so many different member states.

I mention all this because in a way, geopolitics is about how these curious brands bump up against each other in the world, often in some predictable ways. You’ll see it playing out in today’s briefing.

– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

Violent riots in Dublin. Violence erupted in Dublin after five people, including three children, were injured in a stabbing attack. The commissioner for Ireland’s national police blamed the looting and fires on a “lunatic hooligan faction driven by far-right ideology”.

Presidential falling out. In a real plot twist, Taiwan’s opposition parties have registered separate candidates only a week after announcing they’d join forces. Their rift is likely to split the China-friendly vote, much to the benefit of the more independence-leaning ruling party. To top it off, billionaire Foxconn founder Terry Gou has now dropped out of the race altogether.

Inflation in Japan. Japan’s core inflation has quickened for the first time in four months, lending weight to forecasts of an end to the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rates coming sooner rather than later. While 2.9% inflation might not seem like much, Japan has struggled with deflation as recently as 2021.

Let the dance begin. Coalition talks have kicked off in the Netherlands, a day after populist leader Geert Wilders delivered the country’s biggest political upset in decades. After campaigning on cutting immigration, closing Mosques, and holding a referendum on leaving the EU, he used his victory speech to hint at concessions in order to work with more moderate parties.

Truce kicks in. A four-day cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel kicked in this morning (Friday), with the first hostage-prisoner exchange due shortly. No ceasefire breaches have been recorded at time of writing.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Some say this pact was effectively already ‘dead’. If that’s the case, then Kim has now simply signed the death certificate, with little concrete impact.

But the broader context makes a difference here.

First, Kim has continued to make advances in his military capabilities. And if his new satellite is working, he’ll have more accurate intel on South Korean, Japanese and US forces in the region, which can shift the balance of power.

Second, Kim now enjoys stronger Russian support, including at the political, diplomatic, and technological levels, so he’s less isolated.

And third, tensions (🇨🇳) between the North and South’s respective treaty partners (China and the US) remain high, notwithstanding last week’s talks between Presidents Xi and Biden.

So in our view, the collapse of this particular agreement, and in this particular context, is a concerning development. Even the EU just said it “strongly condemns” Kim’s actions this week. 🔥🔥🔥

Also worth noting:

• North Korea says the spy satellite will “make a significant contribution to definitely ramping up the war preparedness” of the country.

• A US Carrier Strike Group is currently completing a port visit in South Korea and will likely conduct deterrence exercises thereafter.

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ROAD TO COP28

Our resident diplomats answer your most burning COP questions (thanks for submitting them via Wednesday’s briefing!)

Question 1: Are multilateral agreements or bilateral agreements a more effective way to achieve diplomatic success?  – S.M.C

As a general rule, bilateral agreements – e.g. free trade agreements – are easier to negotiate and implement because they focus on the interests of only two parties.

But collective problems – like climate change – require collective solutions that account for many more parties’ interests, and that means broader multilateral agreements are crucial for both legitimacy and execution.

In the context of climate change, a bilateral deal between two larger emitters, say the US and China, could be meaningful, but ultimately these broader COP meetings are crucial to get the job done. – John

Question 2: If the idea is to save the environment, shouldn’t this be a zoom conference? – R.B

I’m reminded of an embarrassing incident in which my former employer sent 23 executives (sadly not including me) to Paris for a meeting on ‘finding operational efficiencies’. Needless to say, the headlines (“diplomats fly business class to Paris to save money”) more or less wrote themselves.

The more serious answer is that complex negotiations like COP simply must be done in person. Not only are video conferences terrible for building trust and rapport – both essential for ‘getting to yes’ in diplomacy – but the fact that there are 197 very different parties to COP would make a zoom pretty unworkable.

I do, however, agree with you that the optics of planeloads of diplomats arriving in Dubai to talk about how to reduce emissions aren’t great. – John

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: A South Korean court has convicted a Chinese dissident (who fled China on a jet ski) of breaking South Korea’s immigration laws. Kwon Pyong, who was imprisoned by Chinese authorities in 2016 for likening Xi Jinping to Hitler, had hoped to obtain political asylum in South Korea. 

2. 🇬🇷 Greece: The Greek government is telling its public officials to avoid attending events linked to Taiwan in order not to upset China. The instructions were circulated in an email ahead of last month’s national day celebrations by Taiwan (which Greece doesn’t recognise). 

3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has said the Thai economy is in “crisis” and argued in favour of a “big economic stimulus” in the form of $14B in digital handouts. Official data released Monday showed disappointing GDP growth for the country’s second straight quarter. 

4. 🇪🇨 Ecuador: 35-year-old banana fortune heir Daniel Noboa was sworn in as Ecuador’s president yesterday. He’s pledged to tackle the country’s spike in gang violence and revitalise the economy.

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: Germany will invest $500 million in renewable energy and technology projects in Nigeria in exchange for an increase in gas supplies. Nigeria is the largest African oil producer, and the continent’s third-largest gas producer behind Algeria and Egypt.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Some recommendations if you happen to find yourself in 🇯🇵 Tokyo this weekend

• Eat: Book a table at Bon (🇯🇵) for a traditional Japanese meal inspired by Buddhist monks. 

• Explore: Take a stroll through Shinjuku Gyoen National Garden, both during the day (for a classic autumn experience) and at night (to see the park lit up with digital art). 

• Shop: And whether you’re looking for a souvenir or a gift, it’s worth dropping by the Japan Traditional Crafts Aoyama Square (🇯🇵). 

EMBASSY OF THE DAY

The North Korean embassy in London is a seven-bedroom family house in the capital’s suburbs. Far from the grandiose embassies in Belgravia and Kensington, Pyongyang opted for a more budget-friendly alternative – which makes sense given it’s soon due to close as many as a dozen embassies around the world. 

FRIDAY QUIZ

A quiz to mark this week’s World Television Day! (it was Tuesday)

Answers: 1-c, 2-b, 3-c