๐ŸŒ North Korea scraps key military pact with the South


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Hi Intriguer. Let me tell you a tale of two brands.

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The first is that of North Korea (our lead story below), which dropped a sassy statement yesterday describing its democratic neighbours as โ€œgangstersโ€ and โ€œhystericalโ€. Part of the reason it projects this self-image to the world is for deterrence: โ€˜donโ€™t come too close to us, we might biteโ€™.

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The second brand is that of the EU, where folks often joke that diplomacy hinges entirely on whether or not the EU is โ€œconcernedโ€. To my delight, thereโ€™s even a Twitter account tracking the EUโ€™s level of โ€œconcernโ€. This EU moderation is partly just a function of having to corral so many different member states.

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I mention all this because in a way, geopolitics is about how these curious brands bump up against each other in the world, often in some predictable ways. Youโ€™ll see it playing out in todayโ€™s briefing.

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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

TODAYโ€™S NEWS

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Violent riots in Dublin. Violence erupted in Dublin after five people, including three children, were injured in a stabbing attack. The commissioner for Irelandโ€™s national police blamed the looting and fires on a โ€œlunatic hooligan faction driven by far-right ideologyโ€.

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Presidential falling out. In a real plot twist, Taiwanโ€™s opposition parties have registered separate candidates only a week after announcing theyโ€™d join forces. Their rift is likely to split the China-friendly vote, much to the benefit of the more independence-leaning ruling party. To top it off, billionaire Foxconn founder Terry Gou has now dropped out of the race altogether.

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Inflation in Japan.ย Japanโ€™s core inflation has quickened for the first time in four months, lending weight to forecasts of an end to the Bank of Japanโ€™s negative interest rates coming sooner rather than later. While 2.9% inflation might not seem like much, Japan has struggled with deflation as recently as 2021.

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Let the dance begin. Coalition talks have kicked off in the Netherlands, a day after populist leader Geert Wilders delivered the countryโ€™s biggest political upset in decades. After campaigning on cutting immigration, closing Mosques, and holding a referendum on leaving the EU, he used his victory speech to hint at concessions in order to work with more moderate parties.

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Truce kicks in. A four-day cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel kicked in this morning (Friday), with the first hostage-prisoner exchange due shortly. No ceasefire breaches have been recorded at time of writing.

TOP STORY

North Korea scraps key military pact with the South

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Following the launch of North Koreaโ€™s first spy satellite on Tuesday night, and South Koreaโ€™s resumption of border surveillance in response, the North scrapped a key military pact between the two neighbours yesterday (Thursday).

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Itโ€™s quite the escalation, though it didnโ€™t come out of nowhere.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed the Inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) with his then counterpart in the South in 2018. The idea was to build mutual trust and lower tensions by:

  • banning some drills near the borderโ€™s demilitarised zone (DMZ)

  • ceasing all live-fire maritime exercises in certain regions, andย 

  • creating military no-fly zones around the DMZ.ย 

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The pact was good in theory, but it wasnโ€™t working out too well in practice:

  • The two neighbours had frequently accused each other of violations (e.g., Kim blew up a joint liaison office on the border in 2020), and

  • Critics in Seoul were already saying the pact favoured the North in the way it placed limits on the Southโ€™s surveillance activities.

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So now Kim has axed the deal altogether, and the announcement says heโ€™ll โ€œdeploy more powerful armed forces and new military hardwareโ€.

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For its part, the Southโ€™s defence minister said before parliament yesterday, โ€œif North Korea stages provocations under the pretext of the suspension, we will respond immediately, strongly and until the end.โ€

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INTRIGUEโ€™S TAKE

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Some say this pact was effectively already โ€˜deadโ€™. If thatโ€™s the case, then Kim has now simply signed the death certificate, with little concrete impact.

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But the broader context makes a difference here.

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First, Kim has continued to make advances in his military capabilities. And if his new satellite is working, heโ€™ll have more accurate intel on South Korean, Japanese and US forces in the region, which can shift the balance of power.

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Second, Kim now enjoys stronger Russian support, including at the political, diplomatic,ย and technological levels, so heโ€™s less isolated.

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And third, tensions (๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ) between the North and Southโ€™s respective treaty partners (China and the US) remain high, notwithstanding last weekโ€™s talks between Presidents Xi and Biden.

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So in our view, the collapse of this particular agreement, and in this particular context, is a concerning development. Even the EU just said it โ€œstrongly condemnsโ€ Kimโ€™s actions this week. ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ

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Also worth noting:

  • North Korea says the spy satellite will โ€œmake a significant contribution to definitely ramping up the war preparednessโ€ of the country.

  • A US Carrier Strike Group is currently completing a port visit in South Korea and will likely conduct deterrence exercises thereafter.

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ROAD TO COP28

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Our resident diplomats answer your most burning COP questions (thanks for submitting them via Wednesdayโ€™s briefing!)

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Question 1: Are multilateral agreements or bilateral agreements a more effective way to achieve diplomatic success?ย  – S.M.C

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As a general rule, bilateral agreements – e.g. free trade agreements – are easier to negotiate and implement because they focus on the interests of only two parties.

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But collective problems – like climate change – require collective solutions that account for many more partiesโ€™ interests, and that means broader multilateral agreements are crucial for both legitimacy and execution.

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In the context of climate change, a bilateral deal between two larger emitters, say the US and China, could be meaningful, but ultimately these broader COP meetings are crucial to get the job done. – John

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Question 2: If the idea is to save the environment, shouldnโ€™t this be a zoom conference? – R.B

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Iโ€™m reminded of an embarrassing incident in which my former employer sent 23 executives (sadly not including me) to Paris for a meeting on โ€˜finding operational efficienciesโ€™. Needless to say, the headlines (โ€œdiplomats fly business class to Paris to save moneyโ€) more or less wrote themselves.

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The more serious answer is that complex negotiations like COP simply must be done in person. Not only are video conferences terrible for building trust and rapport – both essential for โ€˜getting to yesโ€™ in diplomacy – but the fact that there are 197 very different parties to COP would make a zoom pretty unworkable.

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I do, however, agree with you that the optics of planeloads of diplomats arriving in Dubai to talk about how to reduce emissions arenโ€™t great. – John

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโ€ฆ

  1. ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทย South Korea: A South Korean court has convicted a Chinese dissident (who fled China on a jet ski) of breaking South Koreaโ€™s immigration laws. Kwon Pyong, who was imprisoned by Chinese authorities in 2016 for likening Xi Jinping to Hitler, had hoped to obtain political asylum in South Korea.ย 

  2. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ทย Greece: The Greek government is telling its public officials to avoid attending events linked to Taiwan in order not to upset China. The instructions were circulated in an email ahead of last monthโ€™s national day celebrations by Taiwan (which Greece doesnโ€™t recognise).ย 

  3. ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญย Thailand: Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has said the Thai economy is in โ€œcrisisโ€ and argued in favour of a โ€œbig economic stimulusโ€ in the form of $14B in digital handouts. Official data released Monday showed disappointing GDP growth for the countryโ€™s second straight quarter.ย 

  4. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จย Ecuador: 35-year-old banana fortune heir Daniel Noboa was sworn in as Ecuadorโ€™s president yesterday. Heโ€™s pledged to tackle the countryโ€™s spike in gang violence and revitalise the economy.

  5. ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌย Nigeria: Germany will invest $500 million in renewable energy and technology projects in Nigeria in exchange for an increase in gas supplies. Nigeria is the largest African oil producer, and the continentโ€™s third-largest gas producer behind Algeria and Egypt.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Some recommendations if you happen to find yourself in ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตย Tokyo this weekend

  • Eat: Book a table at Bon (๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต) for a traditional Japanese meal inspired by Buddhist monks.ย 

  • Explore: Take a stroll through Shinjuku Gyoen National Garden, both during the day (for a classic autumn experience) and at night (to see the park lit up with digital art).ย 

  • Shop: And whether youโ€™re looking for a souvenir or a gift, itโ€™s worth dropping by the Japan Traditional Crafts Aoyama Square (๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต).ย 

EMBASSY OF THE DAY

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The North Korean embassy in London is a seven-bedroom family house in the capitalโ€™s suburbs. Far from the grandiose embassies in Belgravia and Kensington, Pyongyang opted for a more budget-friendly alternative – which makes sense given itโ€™s soon due to close as many as a dozen embassies around the world.ย 

FRIDAY QUIZ

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A quiz to mark this weekโ€™s World Television Day! (it was Tuesday)

1) When did the world’s first-ever demonstration of a working TV take place?

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2) Who was the first sitting US President to appear on television?

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3) Roughly how many TVs are there in the world today?

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Answers: 1-c, 2-b, 3-c