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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What China’s leader wants from his Europe trip |
2️⃣ Why US treasury officials are headed to Singapore and Malaysia |
3️⃣ Tweet of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I’m delighted to introduce you to our newest member of Team Intrigue, Kristen Talman! Kristen joins us from several illustrious organisations including the Financial Times and Morning Brew, the latter of which has been a huge inspiration to us as we build Intrigue.
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And honestly, Kristen couldn’t be a better fit. It’s hard to pick just one fun fact, so here are four: Kristen’s great-grandad was a famous scholar in Canada, she’s spent a tonne of time in Germany and Turkey, Kristen has learned to speak both languages, and she reads global news for fun (imagine!).
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In addition to helping us craft your daily briefing, Kristen’s going to be spearheading a new newsletter focused on the global implications of the US election. I think you’re gonna love that one, so stay tuned!
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I’m incredibly excited Kristen chose to join us and I know Intriguers will love her too.
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With that, let’s get to today’s briefing, which leads with this week’s rare trip across Europe by Xi Jinping.
THE HEADLINES
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Israel orders partial evacuation of Rafah.
The Israeli military has begun telling 100,000 Palestinians in Eastern Rafah to evacuate ahead of what the IDF is calling a “limited” operation. Officials aren’t confirming if this marks the start of Israel’s Rafah ground invasion (against warnings from its allies about the high humanitarian toll). The news comes a day after the latest round of ceasefire-hostage talks ended without a deal, plus a deadly exchange of rocket fire after Hamas hit a border crossing near Rafah.
Israel pulls Al Jazeera off the air.
The Israeli cabinet has voted unanimously to take media outlet Al Jazeera off the air in Israel. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Qatari government-owned outlet of “harm[ing] Israel’s security” and being a “Hamas mouthpiece”, while Al Jazeera said the move was part of Israel’s “ongoing suppression of the free press.”
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Putin orders military exercises ahead of inauguration.
The Russian President wishes to mark the start of his fifth term tomorrow (Tuesday) with just a simple request: air and naval combat drills involving tactical nuclear weapons. The Russian Defence Ministry said the drills are “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain western officials”.
Frontrunner wins Panama election.
Former public security minister José Raúl Mulino has won yesterday’s presidential election with a 10-point lead. His win caps a drama-filled election cycle: he only got the green light to remain in the race last week, and enjoyed the backing of popular former President Martinelli, who’s been living in Nicaragua’s embassy for months due to corruption charges. Mulino has pledged to return Panama to the economic growth seen under Martinelli.
TOP STORY
President Xi touches down in Paris for five-day Europe tour
Xi Jinping and his wife, popular folk singer Peng Liyuan, on the tarmac in Paris. They were greeted by France’s 35-year-old new prime minister, Gabriel Attal (third from right).
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A modified Air China flight touched down in a rainy Paris yesterday (Sunday), carrying China’s leader Xi Jinping on his first visit to Europe since 2019.
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And yep, a bit’s changed since 2019, which was pre-covid, pre-Russian invasion, and even pre-Intrigue.
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To boot, Europe has since shelved its landmark investment pact with China, Italy has left China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative, spying scandals have emerged, and sentiment has soured. These days, Europe and China are now hitting each other right where it hurts, and in the one zone that’s long united them: trade.
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That’s all a heck of a backdrop for Xi’s visit, but his unusual itinerary this week (France, Serbia, Hungary) offers insights into his thinking.
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First, the three destinations share one thing in common – each national leader has variously claimed that the current world order needs fixing. And that’s music for Xi, who’s increasingly presenting China as part of the solution.
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But second, each stop offers insights, too.
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Xi’s time in France comes just days after President Macron again reiterated his vision for Europe to pursue a ‘third way’, independent of the US and China. And it comes just months after China opened an investigation into French cognac exports, in retaliation for the EU’s probe (pushed by France) into Chinese EVs.
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Xi then flies tomorrow (Tuesday) to Serbia, where he’ll mark 25 years since the accidental US bombing of China’s embassy in Belgrade. The US apologised at the time though it remains a sore spot, and one that China is only too happy to highlight in solidarity with Serbian grievances around NATO and the West.
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Xi then wraps his tour in Hungary, which just signed an unusual security pact with China, while hosting a major Huawei presence, expecting a new Chinese EV plant, and taking China-friendly positions on issues like human rights.
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At each stop on this itinerary you don’t have to look too hard to see divisions – whether within the West, within Europe, or within the European business sector.
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And from the perspective of a China seeking to break what it sees as Western containment, division is the name of the game.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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It’s worth looking quickly at each of those points of division.
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First, on divisions within the West, Xi wants to maintain functional ties with Europe until the US elections, when he thinks the US might take a more isolationist turn and leave Europe to re-think its US ties even further.
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Second, on divisions within Europe, Xi’s visit to Hungary and Serbia – where Chinese investment is significant – sends a message to fence-sitters elsewhere that if you play nice, you’ll reap the rewards.
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And third, Xi’s visit highlights divisions within Europe’s business sector: you’ve got German carmakers opposing – and French automakers supporting – the EU’s probe into Chinese competition. Why? The Germans are more China-dependent, so they fear retaliation in China’s market. And while these two national industries duke it out, French brandy-distillers pay the price.
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So then, if Xi’s objective is so clear, why play along? Macron still believes he can leverage his low-key bromance with Xi, and France’s national clout, to push Xi on Ukraine and rebalance relations on trade. But will it work?
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The reality is Russian aggression suits Xi by distracting and diluting Western power. And Xi’s strategy to revive China’s economy relies on selling more EVs to the West, not less. So on both of Macron’s priorities, it’s hard to see Xi playing ball, though he’ll still say enough to nourish dovish voices in Europe.
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And the upshot of all that? More tit-for-tat trade restrictions to come.
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Also worth noting:
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will also join Macron’s talks with Xi today.
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Xi will also take a joint trip to Macron’s childhood vacation spot in the Pyrenees. It’s an answer to Xi’s rare invitation last year, when Macron visited the former residence of Xi’s father, a governor of Guangdong.
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The EU is the world’s second-largest EV market after China. Hungary’s foreign minister just described the EU’s investigation into China’s EV subsidies as “really dangerous and harmful“.
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France exports around 97% of its cognac each year. That export business employs around 70,000 French workers.
A MESSAGE FROM VULTRON
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: China’s space agency has launched a rocket containing a lunar probe, with the aim of being the first ever to collect samples from the far side of the moon. If successful, the agency says it’ll share the samples with the wider international community.
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🇬🇧 UK: During a visit to Kyiv, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron has dropped all opposition to the idea of Ukraine using British weapons to hit targets within Russia. Unsurprisingly, Russia responded by warning this could lead to an escalation in the conflict.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Top US treasury officials will travel to Malaysia and Singapore this week to urge the two neighbours to crack down on sanctions evasion from Russia and Iran. Four Malaysian companies have already been placed under US sanctions for supporting Iran’s drone sector.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Canadian police have arrested three Indian nationals for the murder of a Sikh separatist leader last year, which caused a major rift with India. Authorities say they’re still “investigating whether there are any ties to the government of India.”
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🇳🇪 Niger: US officials say Russian troops have entered an airbase in Niger that also hosts US troops, though the two forces are housed separately. The US is now negotiating the withdrawal of its troops from Niger, following the ruling junta’s axing of their security pact.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A 101-year-old American woman keeps getting mistaken for a baby due to a glitch in the American Airlines system, leaving airport staff consistently prepping for a much smaller traveller.
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A Belgian man has managed to avoid DUI charges after convincing a court that his body naturally produces alcohol.
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A doctor in Mexico has snagged two pairs of $14k Cartier earrings for just $14 each after the luxury brand missed a few zeros. But he then got dunked on by a Mexican senator, who said “it’s more important to be honourable than to have a pair of Cartier earrings.”
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Svalbard in Norway is so serious about protecting its wildlife that a tourist was just fined $1,130 for getting too close to a walrus.
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And locals in Japan’s Fujikawaguchiko are trying to ward off misbehaving tourists by building a black screen to block Mount Fuji, the town’s main attraction.
TWEET/X OF THE DAY
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To our amusement, online pundits have pointed out that while Emmanuel Macron treated his German counterpart Olaf Scholz to a dinner at the renowned La Rotonde in Paris last Thursday, the Bundeskanzler only fed the French leader mere fish sandwiches during a state visit in Hamburg.
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France’s ambassador to Germany, François Delattre, replied rather diplomatically with, “whatever the meal, it brings two friends together.” Guten appetit.
DAILY POLL
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Do you see Xi changing his view on trade or Ukraine following his Europe visit? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Which country do you think will emerge as a global AI leader?
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇩 Indonesia (5%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇧🇷 Brazil (1%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇺🇸 US (50%)
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🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇳 China (20%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇦🇪 UAE (3%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇦 Canada (3%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇬🇧 UK (0.4%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇳 India (15%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇳🇬 Nigeria (1%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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🇺🇸 D.D: “The current wave of AI is a capital-intensive arms race that favors deep-pocketed first-movers. The hope for others is a breakthrough in AI models that is not dependent on scale (of expensive Nvidia Blackwell chips).”
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🇨🇳 C.T: “I give an edge to China due to government investment and less concern over regulating/slowing its development, for better or worse.”
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🇮🇳 G.J: “Early adoption coupled with a growing white collar class.”
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✍️ M.M: “Israel is a dark horse, we all saw what Pegasus [spyware] was capable of and if anything the most recent round of conflict in the Middle East will only serve to reinforce its desire to maintain a technological edge over its adversaries.”
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✍️ R.P: “The Vatican. Their experience with almighty tech gives them a head start.” (🏆 – Team Intrigue)
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