Plus: Meme of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why protests are rocking Georgia |
2️⃣ Why Stevie Wonder is in Ghana |
3️⃣ Meme of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The grandson of former US President Jimmy Carter gave a sad update yesterday, saying his 99-year-old grandfather is “nearing the end”.
Probably the second most famous Georgian of all time, Carter is widely credited with securing peace between Egypt and Israel in 1979 and he went on to become one of the US’s most effective diplomats during his post-presidency years.
But John, who’s the most famous Georgian of all time I hear you ask? Well, that would be Ioseb Dzhugashvili, better known as Josef Stalin, who was born in Georgia (the country) back in 1878.
Tortured segue aside, Georgia is an important if overlooked country. Since its independence in 1991, it has endured civil war, revolution and near constant conflict with Russia as it’s grappled with its post-Soviet identity. We head there for today’s main story as a controversial new law threatens to boil over into a political crisis with far-reaching impacts.
PS – Our special edition on India’s historic elections will hit inboxes this weekend, for anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two or more friends (using your unique referral code down below)!
Biden slaps more tariffs on Chinese imports.
Beijing has criticised the US after President Biden announced a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, including EVs, steel, aluminium, and semiconductors. The White House says the measures are aimed at preventing China from “flooding global markets with artificially low-priced exports.”
US plans to send $1B of arms to Israel.
The White House has presented plans to send an additional $1B security assistance package to Israel. It comes after a report by the State Department last week found Israel may have used US weapons in breach of international law, though the report stopped short of reaching that conclusion. It added that assurances from Israel about its use of US weapons were "credible and reliable".
Lula fires Petrobras chief.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has fired Jean Paul Prates as head of Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant, ending months of speculation. Tensions came to a head when Prates refused to align with government-appointed board members to withhold dividends to shareholders. The president plans to nominate former oil and gas regulator Magda Chambriard as his replacement.
Jordan foils suspected Iranian weapons smuggling plot.
Jordanian sources have told Reuters that local authorities have seized weapons being smuggled into Jordan, allegedly intended to help destabilise the US ally. The plot, discovered in March, was allegedly being orchestrated by Iran-backed militias in Syria.
Huge man-hunt in France.
Hundreds of police have been deployed after gunmen staged a deadly ambush to free a criminal known as ‘The Fly’ yesterday (Tuesday).
TOP STORY
Protests rock Georgia as parliament passes ‘Russian law’
Today’s main story takes us to a capital that’s closer to Kabul than Paris and further east than Moscow, but where sentiment is leaning west towards Brussels. Welcome to Tbilisi, Georgia, where protestors are still filling the streets as outrage grows over a bill that passed parliament yesterday (Tuesday).
The ‘Transparency of Foreign Influence’ bill – aka the ‘foreign agent bill’ – requires organisations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “serving in the interest of a foreign power”, and face additional scrutiny.
The bill’s supporters argue it’s just like the West’s own foreign influence laws, bringing more transparency to help Georgia assert its own sovereignty.
So what’s the issue?
Critics highlight similarities – in context and scope – between Georgia’s bill and the one Russia passed last decade. First, on context, the bill’s proponents in Georgia (as in Russia) openly admit it’s aimed at the West.
And in scope, Georgia’s law defines ‘foreign agent’ so broadly it catches (as in Russia) almost anyone that receives money from overseas. By way of comparison, US law defines a foreign agent much more narrowly (eg, acting at the direction of certain overseas entities).
It’s worth comparing the results, too: since Putin pushed through his own broad law in 2012 (after protests against him), he’s used it to close down hundreds of NGOs and media outlets across Russia, silencing most critical voices.
Over the same period, the US law – first passed almost a century ago in response to Nazi agents – has seen the prosecution of a dozen individuals or firms who’ve secretly lobbied in the US on behalf of foreign governments.
So why is the ruling Georgian Dream party pushing this now?
It abandoned an almost identical bill last year after facing mass protests, but the party now seemingly feels the timing is right, for a few reasons:
-
First, it achieved EU candidate status in December, the same month the EU proposed its own foreign interference laws – Georgian Dream probably saw these developments as providing ‘cover’ to charge ahead.
-
Second, the party is still polling way ahead of its rivals, thanks in part to a booming economy fueled by Russians fleeing their homeland, and
-
Third, elections aren’t until October, so Georgian Dream no doubt hopes this blows over by then, with a little help from distractions like Georgia’s first-ever appearance in next month’s Euro Championships (⚽).
So against that backdrop, the reclusive oligarch behind Georgian Dream (Bidzina Ivanishvili) installed a hardline ally as PM, who then pushed the bill again. And there’s plenty of intrigue around Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia.
What now?
These protests seem to be morphing into something beyond the bill, and more about Georgia’s destiny: 80% of its citizens want to join the EU; in fact, they feel so strongly about it, they literally wrote it into their constitution.
But the EU has (with an ‘amen’ from the US) made clear that Georgia’s path to EU membership will be much narrower if this bill becomes law (see below).
And as you might expect, Russia is making hay from all this: its foreign minister has accused the West of inciting a coup, and the Kremlin spokesperson is highlighting Western criticism as “direct interference in Georgia's domestic affairs”.
Though speaking of interference, neither Russian official mentioned Russia’s continued occupation of 20% of Georgia’s internationally-recognised territory, nor the new naval base Russia reportedly plans to open there this year.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Critics of Georgian Dream might well see three figleaves on display here:
-
The figleaf of using democratic tools to pursue undemocratic aims
-
The figleaf of making pro-EU noises while taking pro-Russia steps, and
-
The figleaf of conflating an NGO’s political impact with its intent.
The ruling party has arguably relied on these figleaves to hold onto power for the past 12 years. But it’s arguably now removing them, presenting Georgians with a clearer choice at the ballot box in October.
Even still, things aren’t that clear.
Yes, Georgians want to join the EU, but many also fear losing their traditional values. Yes, Georgians resent Russia for its 2008 invasion, but many also remember the West’s inaction. Yes, Georgians oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but many also fear getting pulled in (a point emphasised to us by a Georgian diplomat last night). And yes, Georgians are questioning the ruling party, but there’s not a lot of trust in the opposition either.
Meanwhile, the West faces its own dilemma: either voice its objections but play into Russian claims of interference; or stay silent and play into Russian claims of indifference.
Also worth noting:
-
While Georgia’s president (a mostly ceremonial post) says she won’t sign the bill, there’s a big enough parliamentary majority to override her veto.
-
In 2022, the European Court of Human Rights found Russia’s ‘foreign agents’ law violates the right to association. Other ex-Soviet states (like Kyrgyzstan) have introduced similar laws.
-
Russia and Georgia haven’t had formal ties since their 2008 war, though Russia hasn’t listed Georgia as an “unfriendly” country either.
-
While Georgia hasn’t joined sanctions on Russia, it has condemned its invasion of Ukraine and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇯🇵 Japan: Drone footage of a Japanese warship is circulating on social media in China, sparking concerns around security at Japanese bases. Japan’s defence minister has confirmed the veracity of the footage, adding “if drones harm defence facilities, it could cause serious disruptions to the defence of our country.”
-
🇸🇻 El Salvador: The national ‘Bitcoin Office’ (an official government entity) has revealed El Salvador has mined nearly 474 bitcoins since 2021 thanks to a volcano-fueled geothermal plant. That brings the government’s total bitcoin portfolio to nearly $354M at current prices.
-
🇦🇪 UAE: The UAE has presented its highest honour to Indonesia’s defence minister and president-elect, Prabowo Subianto. The UAE is one of several countries (along with China, the US and Japan) seeking to court Prabowo before he takes office in October.
-
🇳🇨 New Caledonia: Violent riots have erupted in the French territory of New Caledonia after Paris granted long-residing French citizens the right to vote in the territory’s elections. The changes have angered locals who say it dilutes the influence of the indigenous Kanak people.
-
🇬🇭 Ghana: American music legend Stevie Wonder has become a Ghanaian citizen at a ceremony in Ghana’s Jubilee House. Ghana’s interior ministry says it’s part of Ghana’s efforts to "attract diasporan Africans and recognise outstanding contributions to the African diaspora".
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on the latest developments in AI
MEME OF THE DAY
The latest from Jeremy, our CMO (Chief Meme Officer).
Nothing inspires more confidence in the workplace than a pair of armpit-high slacks and some well-polished brown shoes. Bonus points for glasses on a chain.
And yes, full marks to the US Embassy in Canberra, who responded amusingly to the above meme with “we aren’t passing audit then…” 😂
With this, we send good vibes and strength to all the diplomats out there currently going through budget season 🙏.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Georgia will ever join the EU? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is China's best option to revive its economy?
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 Lift government spending (14%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🛍️ Remove barriers to foreign investment (32%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📉 Cut interest rates (7%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✂️ Cut taxes (8%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👷 Labour market reforms (15%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🥅 Stronger safety net (so folks spend more) (15%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)
Your two cents:
-
✍️ B: “The reality of the interconnected global economy means China won't be able to go it alone. Relaxing its authoritarian tendencies, especially towards dissenters, would go a long way to sparking foreign investment.”
-
🥅 J.T: “A stronger safety net is preferable to past misplaced investments, which are likely to be repeated.”
-
✍️ E.K.H: “It all comes back to demographics. I'm not aware of any country that's managed to turn an ageing, shrinking population into economic growth.”
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 90k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.