Plus: Album of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Putin does Pyongyang |
2️⃣ The Intrigue job board |
3️⃣ Album of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Things aren’t always as they seem, and that’s a lesson I learned from a mandatory PowerPoint training of all places.
Years ago, an ambassador rolled in and showed us a slide-show of highways connecting airports to their nearest city, and asked us to guess each city.
Of course, we got them all wrong, but that was the point. Some of the world’s most gleaming motorways are in the world’s poorest and most repressive states. The shiniest highway of them all? Back then at least, it was in Pyongyang, the capital of impoverished and reclusive North Korea.
Without elections, autocrats can invest in glamour projects to impress visitors shuttling from their jets to their 5-star hotels, obscuring the grim reality. So keep that in mind during today’s briefing, which leads with Russian leader Vladimir Putin getting a sparkling welcome to downtown Pyongyang.
PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Israel reportedly approves plans for Hezbollah offensive.
Top Israeli generals have reportedly approved “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”, after the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group released purported drone footage of military and civilian areas in Israel. The regular Israel-Hezbollah skirmishes intensified last week after Israel killed a Hezbollah commander, and there are fears the two could slide back into a major conflict.
Nvidia becomes world’s most valuable company.
The chip developer and darling of the AI world has now surpassed Microsoft to take the crown with a market capitalization of $3.34T. Nvidia’s stocks have been on fire recently, adding more than $2 trillion of market cap this year alone thanks to blockbuster earnings reports.
US approves $360M arms sale to Taiwan.
The US says the shipments, which will include armed drones and missile equipment, will help improve “military balance” in the region. China, which lays claim to the self-governed island, will inevitably object.
UK inflation is back on target.
Inflation rates are now back within the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since 2021. This will be welcome news for the Conservative party, which is facing an uphill battle to be re-elected on July 4th.
TOP STORY
Putin goes to Pyongyang
A main street in North Korea’s capital. Source: @RIA_Kremlinpool
Portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin adorned the streets as he arrived in North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang yesterday (Tuesday). It’s his first trip to the North (aka DPRK) in 24 years.
Once upon a time, Putin travelled everywhere, making stops in Brazil, chatting with the Pope in Rome, and dropping in for “long lunches” in Versailles. But since he invaded Ukraine and the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest, Putin’s itinerary has shrunk.
That’s where North Korea comes in. Both Putin and his counterpart Kim Jong Un are now pariahs in much of the world, so they have plenty of reasons to get along, though neither gives the other a ‘free lunch’, if you will (and yes, we will).
So let’s dive in.
Why does Moscow need Pyongyang?
Putin is known to arrive late and leave world leaders twiddling their thumbs, but for Kim Jong Un, he's now shown up early. And that's not because he booked himself a last-minute slot for one of the hermit state’s 15 approved haircuts.
It’s because Putin needs weapons. Much has been made of the Russian war machine, but satellite imagery shows depletion at his open-air arms depots. So…
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The claim: In the 850 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, 50 countries have accused North Korea of providing arms shipments for Putin’s war. The wonks at a London-based think tank have even detailed the precise shipment coordinates and dates of several such shipments.
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The response: Kim Jung Un’s sister has called the claim “the most absurd paradox”, though Putin and Kim pledged to deepen their military ties last year, and Kim has called Putin a “comrade-in-arms”. Plus, we couldn’t help but notice when Russia blocked further UN scrutiny of North Korea’s sanctions violations in March, a move Ukraine’s foreign minister described as a “guilty plea”.
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The context: If you’re wondering why North Korea, a state of 26 million isolated and impoverished people, can a) manufacture arms, b) at scale, and c) supply them to others, remember that North and South Korea are still technically at war. This feeds a siege mentality that Kim uses to sustain his family’s power. So he spends a quarter of his GDP on defence, while many NATO countries are still struggling to hit 2%.
Then why does Pyongyang need Moscow?
When Putin sent a luxury Aurus Senat limousine to North Korea in February, Kim’s influential sister called the gift “perfect.” But the 18 known official visits between the two neighbours this year alone make clear this is all about business.
From Kim’s perspective, he needs a) technology, b) cash, and c) solidarity.
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On the tech front, Kim anchors his legitimacy in his nuclear and ballistic missile capability, but his isolation makes developing and maintaining that capability difficult. So he sees Putin as a way to fill that gap. This helps explain why Putin hosted him at a satellite launch centre last year, and why the North’s science and tech chief visited Russia last month.
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On the cash front, Kim has long sent workers abroad to funnel foreign currency back into his arms program. Despite sanctions, there are now ~100,000 such workers across 40 countries, earning Pyongyang ~$500M per year. Russia is now welcoming more, and its ambassador in Pyongyang has even suggested (🇷🇺) they could help with “reconstruction efforts“ in occupied Ukraine.
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And on the solidarity front, Kim and Putin are now running the world’s fourth-most and most-sanctioned countries, respectively. But while Putin – with a permanent UN Security Council seat – is meant to be enforcing many of those sanctions against the North, reports are just emerging that he’s now instead signed an agreement with Kim featuring a mutual defence clause.
So while the media landscapes in Russia and North Korea will limit our visibility of the visit’s substance, there are still plenty of signs for all to see.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As much as Putin likes to signal strength, it’s hard to see how his first trip to the hermit kingdom in 24 years doesn’t signal a solid degree of desperation.
But desperation can be dangerous in its own way, and it’s particularly intriguing when it forms part of a broader whole: the emerging military, financial, and political cooperation among Iran, Russia, DPRK, and China.
You may wonder… what do these states even have in common? A proto-fascist theocracy, a neo-imperialist kleptocracy, a Juchist family dictatorship, and a Marxist-Leninist-led hybrid. The answer is, of course, very little.
But a big thing they do share is this: they chafe at the world order and particularly its lead sponsor, the US. That’s what spurs not only their support for Russia, but also their dependence on China (the North’s sole formal ally, Russia’s main economic lifeline, and the buyer of 90% of Iran’s oil).
But let’s be clear – we’re still seeing rank self-interest at play between them: China, for example, is currently squeezing Putin on gas prices and volumes.
So yes, history will be shaped by how the rest of the world responds to this emerging axis. But it’ll also be shaped by the degree to which this disparate axis can cooperate meaningfully over the longer term.
Also worth noting:
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Before touching down in Pyongyang, Putin penned an editorial for the North’s main state newspaper, pledging solidarity against US-led sanctions.
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The North’s state media (KCNA) has waxed poetic about Putin’s visit: “Passing through charmingly lit streets of Pyongyang at night, the top leaders exchanged their pent-up inmost thoughts”.
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Putin today heads to Vietnam, which has largely avoided criticising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Historically, Vietnam has found value in Russia as a counterbalance to neighbouring China.
EXTRA, EXTRA, READ ALL ABOUT IT: ELECTION INTRIGUE
There’s plenty of speculation around who Trump might pick for his running mate.
It's an intriguing topic for sure, and that's why we're diving in but with our own spin – the foreign policy background of his rumoured top contenders.
So over the next four weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention, sign up for our weekly newsletter to get Intrigue’s insights into Trump’s next VP nominee, and how they see the world.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇭🇰 Hong Kong: In an effort to boost its competitiveness as a financial hub, Hong Kong has announced its stock exchange will start trading through typhoons and heavy storms from September. Severe weather events closed the bourse four times last year alone.
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🇪🇺 EU: The EU’s environment ministers have passed a watered-down nature law that seeks to restore at least 20% of the EU’s land and sea by 2030. The bill passed with a razor-thin margin after Austria’s Green climate minister gave her last-minute support (to the anger of her coalition government back home).
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has told a media outlet in China that his country is seeking to join the ‘BRICS’ grouping first founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group, which seeks greater influence for its members, just welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE in January.
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🇺🇸 US: The US department of agriculture has announced it’s suspending all inspection of avocados and mangos from Michoacán (a top-producing Mexican state), after an unspecified security incident involving two US inspectors. The US also halted inspections for a week in 2022 after a US inspector received a verbal threat.
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🇾🇪 Yemen: US Central Command has announced that the US Navy has destroyed seven radars likely used by the Houthis to attack commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea. The US strikes followed a Houthi attack on a Greek-owned ship last week that left one mariner missing.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
The Intrigue job board is back! Here are some job listings we thought you might like:
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Programme Management Assistant @ UNOCHA
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Editor (International Affairs) @ Chatham House
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Economist / Core data scientist @ Apple
ALBUM OF THE DAY
What do fascist dictator Benito Mussolini and J-pop (that’s Japanese pop) have in common? The answer is just as odd as you’d expect. Alessandra Mussolini, the granddaughter of the Italian dictator, once released a catchy future-funk track exclusively for the Japanese market, before deciding she’d rather try her hand at Italian politics. She went on to win seats in the Italian and European parliaments, though she failed in her European re-election bid this month.
DAILY POLL
Is Pyongyang and Moscow's relationship for real? |
Yesterday’s poll: How would you feel if a defence company sponsored your favourite sports team?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🟢 Good – they help keep us safe (26%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟠 Meh – money is money (43%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔴 How dare they – war profiteers have no role in sports (27%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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🟠 G.J.H: “A lot of sports sponsors are already killing us slowly. Why shun the ones that fast-track that?”
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🔴 S.B: “War and sports should remain separate. As an Indian, I often find cricket brings India and Pakistan closer, but if our teams were sponsored by defence companies, that would just turn cricket into another arena of the cold war between our two nations.”
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🟢 H.M: “As a huge fan of Borussia Dortmund [the German soccer team now sponsored by a major defence company], I could not be prouder. It's time to move into the 21st century, grow up, and accept the new realities of this world. And if this helps us beat down Bayern Munich, then even better.”
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✍️ L.J.H: “I'm generally a pacifist but if we let potato chip companies sponsor cricketers, then why not defence? I'd sooner normalise the logos of defence organisations in order to spark discussion and debate than that of unhealthy snacks.”
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