Plus: India's record-breaking market valuation
Hi Intriguer. The Parthenon Sculptures – you may know them as the Elgin Marbles – were at the centre of a diplomatic squabble last week.
British PM Rishi Sunak pulled out of a planned with meeting his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitostakis after the latter renewed his country’s call for the treasures to be returned to Athens.
Sunak’s snub went down like a marble balloon. The Chair of the British Museum (and Sunak’s former colleague), George Osborne, called it a “hissy fit”. I called it “handbags at ten paces” in our company Slack.
But it was King Charles III who threw the deepest shade (at his own Prime Minister, no less) when he wore a Greek flag tie during his remarks at COP28 last Friday. For a man who owns what I can only presume are literally tens of thousands of ties…
Greece pops up again in our main story today about how Russia’s oil revenues are higher than before the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine. Hint: Greece is the world's largest oil tanker-owning nation.
– John Fowler, Co-Founder
Guterres invokes rare UN tool. In a rare move, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter, pressing the Security Council for a ceasefire to avert a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza. In response, Israel’s ambassador to the UN said “the secretary-general’s call for a ceasefire is actually a call to keep Hamas’s reign of terror in Gaza”.
Still no aid for Ukraine. The US Senate has blocked a bill that included funding for Ukraine, with Republicans arguing the package didn’t go far enough on US-Mexico border control. In response, President Biden said the bill’s opponents were “willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for”.
EU and China meet again. Xi Jinping has told visiting EU officials that China is willing to view the bloc as a “key partner in economic and trade cooperation”. But tensions remain: Chinese officials have criticised the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs, while Italy reportedly became the first country to exit China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative earlier this week.
Debate night. No clear winner emerged from last night’s Republican primary debate between four candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Former President Donald Trump didn’t participate, and remains the clear Republican frontrunner.
Taylor Swift lands Person of the Year. Time Magazine has named Taylor Swift its Person of the Year, after the singer-songwriter kicked off a record-breaking tour and became the world’s most-streamed artist of the year.
TOP STORY
Putin went on a whirlwind Middle East trip yesterday.
One year into sanctions, Russia’s oil revenues are now higher than before the war
Russian President Vladimir Putin completed a flying one-day visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia yesterday. He cut a confident figure as he was welcomed by both countries as a “dear friend”.
Putin’s foreign outreach is notable for a few reasons:
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It’s his first trip beyond Russia’s traditional allies (China, Iran, and Central Asian countries) since the start of the Russo-Ukraine war and his first trip to the Middle East since 2019.
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It shows he wants to coordinate more closely with OPEC+ members to push oil prices higher at a time when analysts are wondering whether the cartel is losing its power.
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Plus, he’ll host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Kremlin today.
But it’s the broader context that’s most intriguing here.
As Putin was receiving a lavish welcome an hour down the road from COP28, Bloomberg published an investigation that found Russia’s monthly income from oil exports is higher now than it was before it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
That’s despite the US$60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil imposed by G7 countries on 5 December 2022 that was supposed to kneecap Russian revenues. Capping the price Russia can charge for its oil was supposed to make it harder for it to fund its war effort in Ukraine.
In reality, Russia has mostly adapted to the sanctions:
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Instead of selling its oil to the EU, Moscow now ships most of it to China and India, and
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Instead of transporting it via established shipping merchants out of London or Geneva, a ‘shadow fleet’ of rusting oil tankers operated by opaque entities headquartered in places like Estonia, Hong Kong, and the UAE now takes Russian oil to the world.
Interestingly, Greek companies are also helping. According to the Bloomberg report, Greek-owned vessels shipped more Russian oil in 2023 than any other country.
Of course, none of this is to say sanctions are totally failing. Russia has lost roughly $36B in oil export revenue over the past year, and the rouble has fallen 40% against the USD since sanctions were imposed.
But, given Russia’s net oil revenues have increased every month since June, it’s no wonder Putin seemed so confident in the Gulf yesterday.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Was it hubristic of the G7 and the EU to believe it could cripple an economy as large as Russia’s with a stroke of a pen? Perhaps – where there’s a will, there’s a way, and Putin’s political (and therefore personal) survival depends on getting Russian oil to market.
Looking to next year, there are more reasons for Putin to be optimistic. For example, just how aggressively will the Biden administration attack Russian oil flows if it means risking pushing up global fuel prices in a presidential election year?
All this is bad news for Ukraine as we approach the second anniversary of the war with no end in sight.
Also worth noting:
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The Economist published an interesting look into how Putin is remaking Russia as a state perpetually at war.
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The US Treasury sent letters to major Greek shipping lines warning them they would face sanctions if they continued to help Russia defy the oil price cap.
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🌱 COP28 CORNER
Brazil is pushing to include a clause criticising carbon import taxes in the final COP28 joint statement text.
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The Latin American giant has been a vocal critic of the EU's new carbon border tax, arguing it’s just green-washed protectionism.
The UAE says its summit has mobilised more than $83B so far.
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And in case you missed the announcement… the hosts are also projecting it onto buildings all across the city’s vast COP venue.
Helen’s dispatch
A week into COP28, it’s now the summit’s “official rest day” today.
Delegates will catch up on sleep, ice their feet (did I mention this venue is massive?), process the strange sight of jets tracing the Russian tricolour through the sky, and seek negotiating instructions from their capitals.
And through it all, there’s a sense among everyone I’m talking to that the narrative has shifted this year: to one of opportunity for climate finance, being a little more on the same page, and proving we can still get stuff done.
COP at night is even more impressive.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: South Korean police are investigating whether North Korean hackers might’ve obtained sensitive data from local defence firms, including blueprints for an anti-aircraft laser. The hackers used a hosting service that rents servers to unidentified clients.
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🇪🇺 EU: The EU’s Home Affairs Commissioner has warned there is a “huge risk” of terror attacks in the EU ahead of Christmas. Ylva Johansson linked the threat to “the war between Israel and Hamas, and the polarisation it causes in our society, with the upcoming holiday season”.
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🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea (PNG): Prime Minister James Marape signed a sweeping security pact with Australia in Canberra this morning, enabling (for example) Australians to serve in key PNG police roles. This deal has long been an Australian priority as it seeks to counter China’s influence in the region.
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🇵🇪 Peru: Former president Alberto Fujimori was released from prison yesterday after a court reinstated an earlier pardon on humanitarian grounds. The 85-year-old remains a divisive figure in Peru, where he was serving a 25-year sentence for crimes against humanity committed while combating a violent Maoist insurgency in the 1990s.
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🇩🇿 Algeria: Russian state media is reporting that Algeria and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the western Mediterranean. The report didn’t disclose precise dates, though Russia’s Admiral Grigorovich frigate has already arrived in Algiers.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world googled yesterday
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🇨🇴 Folks in Colombia wanted more info on an ‘Avianca’ plane ticket promotion launched to celebrate the airline’s 104th anniversary (🇨🇴).
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🇰🇪 Kenyans looked up ‘Ahmed the elephant’ after Wednesday’s Google Doodle was dedicated to the first giant tusked elephant to be protected under presidential decree in Kenya.
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🇵🇹 And Portuguese music fans googled ‘Rock in Rio-Lisboa’ in hopes of securing tickets to next year’s festival (featuring Ed Sheeran and Camila Cabello).
GRAPH OF THE DAY
Credits: Bloomberg.
India’s stock market just passed the $4T valuation mark for the first time, edging closer to both Hong Kong ($4.7T) and Japan ($5.5T). China still sits comfortably in 2nd place with $11T in market capitalisation, behind the US at $45T. India’s economy is doing pretty well amid slowing global economic growth.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Vladimir Putin's international isolation is over? |
Yesterday’s poll: Should we mine the ocean floor for minerals?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💎 Yes, we need those sweet sweet minerals (30%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐠 No, we have to preserve the oceans (65%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write-in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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🐠 M.W: “Deep sea mining will likely destroy ancient coral and deep sea biodiversity that thrive in an extremely difficult environment, making regeneration in the future for these species nearly impossible.”
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💎 L.E: “As much as pausing everything everywhere would be a perfect solution, something tells me the chances of that actually happening are slim. Thus the second best solution is to as-fast-as-possible move towards greener solutions, and this is part of that no matter how contradictory it might sound.”
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✍️ X.F: “We should explore the practice on a small scale like in Norway and measure the effects for future review.”