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Hi there Intriguer. Here at Intrigue we track only the biggest geopolitical trends. Like this one: the upcoming Barbie movie reportedly needed so much pink, it caused a global shortage of pink paint.
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Today’s briefing is a 4.2 min read:
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia wants a nuclear program.
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🚔 Southeast Asia has a drug trafficking problem.
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➕ Plus: The key to any battle over Taiwan, how the papers are covering Russian claims about a repelled Ukrainian offensive, and how Austria became Putin’s alpine fortress.
🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD
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🇨🇳 China: The US Navy has released footage of a close encounter with a Chinese warship in the Taiwan Strait over the weekend. US officials say China’s ship initiated an “unsafe interaction”, while China maintains its crew was responding to US provocation.
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🇵🇱 Poland: Half a million people descended on Warsaw on Sunday in a massive anti-government march called by former Prime Minister and EU leader Donald Tusk. Poles will head to the polls (sorry) later this year in what will be a major test for President Andrzej Duda.
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🇮🇳 India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to seek the “harshest punishment” for those responsible for the deadliest train accident of the century. Over 280 people died in the three-train accident which authorities are blaming on a signalling error.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: The president’s party has won the opposition stronghold of Estado de Mexico in Sunday’s regional elections. The result is the latest in a string of encouraging signs for the ruling Morena party ahead of next year’s general elections.
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🇪🇬 Egypt: Three Israeli soldiers and one Egyptian border patrol agent are dead following a deadly incident along their shared border. Egypt believes its agent exchanged fire with the Israeli soldiers while chasing drug smugglers over the border.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA | ENERGY
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
The Saudis want to go nuclear
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Briefly: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to renew requests for US assistance in developing the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear energy program during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit this week (6-8 June).
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Saudi Arabia is a long way from its pledge to generate half its power from renewables by 2050; renewables contributed ~0% as recently as 2021. But sitting on up to 5% of the world’s uranium reserves, the Saudis say they could quickly bring a nuclear power program online with the right foreign support.
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Plus, Saudi Arabia has listed American nuclear assistance as a prerequisite to normalise Saudi relations with Israel, a top US regional goal. And Saudi officials say the US would have substantial oversight over any nuclear program.
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But for all the upsides, there are a few downsides. The Kingdom already has:
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🚀 An advanced missile program
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🤷 A norm-flouting leader who might be bluffing on normalisation, and
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🇮🇷 A determination to “follow suit” if its rival Iran develops the bomb.
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And if the US has learned anything from its ~80 years as a nuclear power, it’s that peaceful nuclear programs don’t always stay that way.
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Intrigue’s take: If the US declines to play ball, the Kingdom has flagged it may turn to US rivals like China and Russia, whose oversight regimes may not be quite as strict.
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So no matter the outcome, the lesson for some world leaders may be that playing the US and its rivals against each other is a great way to get things done.
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Also worth noting:
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Israel’s energy minister said yesterday (Monday) that his country would not endorse a Saudi nuclear program as part of normalisation talks.
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With US support, the United Arab Emirates became the first Arab nation to open a nuclear power plant in 2021.
📰 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
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How different newspapers covered: Russian claims that it repelled a major Ukrainian offensive over the weekend.
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Links: TASS, The Guardian, Euractiv.
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Today’s briefing is sponsored by Drizly
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Drizly is the largest online marketplace for alcohol in North America. Our purpose is to be there when it matters – committed to life’s moments and the people who create them. We partner with thousands of retailers in more than 1,400 cities to empower them to grow their businesses and make our customers’ good times better. Drizly is available to 100M+ customers and counting across the U.S. Save $5 on your first order.
🚔 SOUTHEAST ASIA | ORGANISED CRIME
Credits: UNODC.
New drug trafficking routes in Southeast Asia
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Briefly: According to the UN’s yearly Synthetic Drugs in East and Southeast Asia report, eastern Myanmar is fast becoming the world’s leading production hub for meth and synthetic drugs, which are trafficked out via Thailand and Laos.
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Southeast Asian authorities seized a total of 151 tons of meth last year, a decrease from 2021. But fewer busts don’t automatically equal good news: it seems cartels have simply shifted their trafficking onto less patrolled routes.
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Intrigue’s take: How does Southeast Asia, a region with some of the world’s most stringent drug laws, become a synthetic drugs epicentre?
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Lax oversight: The 2021 military coup eroded Myanmar’s already weak law enforcement, with various militia groups now controlling the trade.
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Raw materials: Southeast Asia is the single largest contributor to the global specialty chemicals sector, accounting for 36% of total revenue.
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Advantageous geography: Southeast Asia is already a global trading hub. That works for illicit substances too.
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This might all be another reason for the region’s main bloc (ASEAN) to be bolder on Myanmar. The mess there is no longer just an ‘internal affair’.
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Also worth noting:
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Synthetic amphetamines (a category including methamphetamines) are the second most widely used drugs across the globe after cannabis.
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Of the 20 countries carrying out the death penalty for drug related offences in the last five years, 10 are in Southeast Asia.
👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE
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We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.
💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY
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We asked Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan: “of the five battlefield domains – air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace – which would be most important in a battle over Taiwan?” Check out his answer in the full Intrigue Outloud interview on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
🗳️ POLL TIME!
If you were a US policymaker, would you help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear program? |
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Yesterday’s poll: What’s the world’s best airport?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇯🇵 Tokyo Haneda (8%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇫🇷 Paris Charles de Gaulle (5%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇸🇬 Singapore Changi (39%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇶🇦 Doha Hamad (7%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇭 Zurich (9%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇰🇷 Incheon (5%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇿🇦 Cape Town (2%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇸 Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta (12%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇾 Carrasco (2%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (12%)
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Your two cents:
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✍️ J.S: “Ciudad Real [in Spain], it’s the quietest airport on Earth. No planes land there anymore!!!”
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Honourable mentions: Istanbul Airport, London City Airport, and Amsterdam Schiphol.