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Hi Intriguer. Can you guess what the hottest commodity of the year is right now? Itโs not cobalt, oil, or even gold. Itโs cocoa, the key chocolate input, which has more than doubled in price already this year.
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A key driver has been poor harvests out of West Africa, driven by unusual weather, plant diseases, and underinvestment in a region that barely gets 5% of the $120B sectorโs profits despite producing two thirds of its cocoa.
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The result is a massive price spike thatโs somehow both a shock, yet alsoโฆ entirely foreseeable (we called it on 5 January).
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Todayโs briefing leads with another shock in West Africa, but itโs one that very few will have seen coming: an obscure opposition figure in Senegal has somehow just gone from prison to president-elect in 11 days.
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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
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PS – Weโll be taking a break this Friday 29 March and Monday 1 April, but will be back in your inbox from Tuesday 2 April.
TODAYโS NEWS
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Israel recalls negotiators.ย Israel has recalled its negotiating team from Doha after claiming ceasefire talks with Hamas had reached a โdead endโ. Mediators Qatar and Egypt had been pushing for a six-week truce in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages. Hamas is reportedly pushing for a permanent withdrawal of Israeli forces and for all displaced Gazans to be allowed back north.
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Xi meets US CEOs. Several US CEOs have extended their stay in China after receiving a last-minute invite to meet President Xi Jinping today (Wednesday), as Beijing seeks to revive foreign investor confidence. The US executives were in the country to attend the China Development Forum, a key business summit. In a nod to investor concerns, China has also announced itโs relaxing rules on cross-border data flows.
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The Japanese yen slides.ย Expectations of an imminent intervention rose after the Japanese currency slid to a 34-year low against the US dollar earlier today. There are fewer remaining options to prop the yen back up, after the Bank of Japan lifted interest rates out of negative territory last week.
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Russia struggles collecting oil payments.ย Russian oil firms are facing long payment delays after banks in China, Turkey, and the UAE raised their sanctions compliance requirements in recent weeks, according to Reuters. The resulting erratic payments are complicating the Kremlinโs revenue efforts.
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Sensitive files disappear from Europol HQ.ย A cache of highly sensitive files containing the personal information of top European law enforcement executives went missing last summer, triggering an agency-wide crisis. Some of the files were recovered after a citizen found them abandoned in a public space.
TOP STORY
Senegalโs new leader just went from prison to president-elect in 11 daysย

Outgoing president Macky Sall (L), and president-elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye (R).
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The road to leadership is often long and bumpy, but for Senegalโs new president-elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye, that journey has been, well, short and bumpy.
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The little-known tax inspector has won more than half of all votes in Sundayโs election, avoiding the need for a runoff. He was only released from prison two weeks ago, and became a candidate (while in prison) in November.
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At 44, heโll be Africaโs youngest current elected leader when he takes office next month. His supporters are already celebrating in the streets of Dakar.
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Hereโs how Faye pulled it offย
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Senegalโs most popular opposition figure is actually someone else – firebrand populist, Ousmane Sonko. Sonko came third in 2019, then rode a wave of youth discontent to prominence in a country where 60% of folks are aged under 25.
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But after authorities jailed and disqualified him on charges he says were politically motivated, Sonko moved instead to nominate his friend, fellow ex-tax inspector, party chief, and now president-elect, Bassirou Faye.
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This was all happening amid claims that President Macky Sall was trying to cling to power, culminating in more mass anti-government protests earlier this year.
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Sall vowed not to run again, but the countryโs top court eventually forced him to call Sundayโs delayed election and, in a conciliatory gesture, he moved to pardon hundreds of jailed protesters and opposition figures – including Bassirou Faye who, unlike Sonko, hadnโt been disqualified from political office.
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Millions of frustrated but hopeful voters quickly united behind Faye, delivering a stunning, first-round victory over the ruling partyโs candidate and 17 others.
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So, what will a Faye presidency look like?ย
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The world is still figuring out what Faye himself looks like: his life journey, including academic honours and union organising, suggests heโs clever and driven, while his public appearances project humble and bookish vibes.
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After casting his vote on Sunday, Faye even ordered jubilant supporters to โcalm downโ, which might help explain why his friend Sonko said Faye was โnot a choice from the heart, but from reason.โ Worst endorsement ever?
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And weโre also still learning about Faye because his campaign trail was so brief, addressing voters in person for the first time just days before the election. That feels less like a campaign trail and more like a campaign patio or something.
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Heโs been focussed on familiar challenges like corruption and unemployment. But heโs also spooked investors (whoโve helped drive recent strong growth), by calling for more control over Senegalโs new oil and gas sector, and proposing to ditch the regionโs Euro-pegged currency (though heโs since walked this back).
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Whichever course Faye charts, heโll have to navigate the countryโs IMF commitments, while learning on the job. But that can wait until next month.
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For now, much of the country looks busy celebrating.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Weโll leave the fine people of Senegal to decide who they want in the presidential palace, but this election matters for the rest of us, too.
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First, the narrative around Senegal has been one of โdemocratic declineโ, but this result suggests the countryโs institutions have passed another stress test.
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And itโs not just faceless โinstitutionsโ at work – people got us here, including Sonkoโs decision to hand over his candidacy; Sallโs decision to pardon the prisoners; and various candidatesโ decisions to quickly concede defeat. Democracy still comes down to people, and their decisions matter in a region thatโs seen eight coups since 2020.
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Second, many of the regionโs current post-coup regimes have pivoted away from the West, seeking backing from more sympathetic, authoritarian powers. Itโs still early days, but another democratic transition in Senegal will likely be a relief for France, which has one of its last regional bases there.
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Third, Senegalโs recent instability has been one factor driving more irregular migration to Europe. If Faye can stabilise things and start addressing the root causes, folks will have more reasons to stay.
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And finally, Faye is an avowed pan-Africanist – ie, he sees Africaโs future rooted in more collaboration across the continent. Thereโs already an African Continental Free Trade Area underway, and more regional governments are removing visa requirements for African nationals. Itโll be interesting to see what Faye brings to that momentum.
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Also worth noting:
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Senegal became independent from France in 1960.ย Since then, itโs had three peaceful transitions of power (1980, 2000, and 2012). Itโs had political crises, but not a coup.
-
Faye has two wives (common in Senegal). He named one of his sons Ousmane after his friend and key mentor above, Ousmane Sonko.
SUPPORTED BY PYRRA
Don’t wait for US election news to hit the media.
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Start the week with unique insight into what people are really saying about the candidates, platforms and parties with our weekly US Election Report.
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Intriguers get the first month free with code INTRIGUE
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Pyrra’s AI scans millions of records from more than 30 unmoderated social media platforms every day, to give you an early warning of the narratives, sentiments, interests, and actions that are shaping the election, influencing platforms and impacting public safety.
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Check out last weekโs newsletter for an exclusive look at Pyrraโs content.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ

-
๐จ๐ณย China: A court in central Hubei province has handed down a life sentence to the former head of Chinaโs football association for taking bribes worth $11M. Chinaโs soccer fans have long blamed corruption for the national teamโs chronic underperformance.ย
-
๐ท๐บย Russia: A Moscow court has extended the pre-trial detention on spying charges of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter, Evan Gershkovich. This Friday will be a year since he was detained while reporting from Yekaterinburg (Evan, the WSJ, and the US deny heโs a spy).
-
๐น๐ดย Tonga: Crown Prince Tupouto’a ‘Ulukalala could soon be appointed foreign and defence minister, after his father (King Tupou VI) withdrew support for the previous office-holders. Critics have branded the kingโs involvement in government affairs a return to the โdark agesโ for the island kingdom.
-
๐ป๐ชย Venezuela: The government has allowed the main opposition coalition to register a provisional candidate after it was initially blocked by suspicious tech issues. Pro-government authorities banned the previous opposition candidate, and issued arrest warrants for her staffers last week.
-
๐น๐ฌย Togo: Lawmakers have voted to shift from a presidential to a parliamentary system after adopting a new constitution thatโll see parliament (rather than the public) elect the president. The amendment passed almost unanimously in a legislature that has little presence from the opposition, which boycotted the last elections.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what weโre reading from the business world
-
Korean conglomerate LG to invest $74 billion in AI, biotech, cleantech and other growth areas
-
Adam Neumann makes conditional offer to regain control of WeWork
-
Truth Social stock price surges on first day of trading, increasing Trumpโs fortune
-
Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees in settlement that could save merchants $30 billion
CHART OF THE DAY
Credits: Bloomberg.
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iPhone shipments to China fell by 33% in February from a year earlier, despite a rare round of discounts. Thatโs a tad concerning for Apple, which sees China as its top foreign market. There are two main factors at play here: a broader downward trend in Chinaโs smartphone market, and more competition from local giant, Huawei.ย Officials have also been restricting the use of foreign phones (such as the iPhone) in some government agencies and state-owned enterprises.
DAILY POLL
What do you think Senegal’s election result means? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think the UN Security Council resolution will bring about tangible change in Gaza?
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐บ๐ณ Yes, Israel has too much to lose in defying the UNSC (7%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐๏ธ Yes, Hamas can’t keep the hostages forever (3%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ โ๏ธ No, there’s no enforcement mechanism (88%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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โ๏ธ G: โThey shall write another stern letter…โ
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โ๏ธ J.M.W: โYes, but it will be very slow and not in time for Ramadan (so really, no). The resolution really marks slow movement in the direction of a ceasefire at some future point as Israel’s allies become more like lukewarm supporters.โ
โ๏ธ Corrections corner
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Our thanks to legal eagle (and Intrigue WhatsApp group member) Filippo, who pointed out that US Ambassador Greenfieldโs โnonbindingโ comment on Mondayโs UNSCโs Gaza resolution wouldโve had an eye to the UN Charterโs Chapter VII (not Article 7). You can join the WhatsApp conversation simply by referring five friends to Intrigue using your unique referral link above!