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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The separatists hitting China and Pakistan |
2️⃣ Smuggling cocoa in West Africa |
3️⃣ Photoshop of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Next time you’re at a cookout hovering awkwardly by the Sweet Baby Ray’s BBQ Sauce, I’ve prepared this interesting factoid exclusively for your ice-breaking purposes.
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It starts back in the 1980s, when maritime cargo traffic was booming, but all these new vessels were having trouble communicating at sea given all their different nationalities and languages. So in 1983, a group of linguists and shipping experts got together to develop a new language called ‘Seaspeak’.
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Now, if you also grew up watching The Simpsons you’ll have likewise now assumed Seaspeak is the arrrrrr-heavy dialect spoken by Springfield’s corncob-pipe-smoking, glass-eye-squinting Sea Captain (aka Horatio McCallister). But it’s actually more like an ultra-simple version of English. And the International Maritime Organization went on to make it the official language of the seas in 1988.
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Anyway, where were we? Ah yes, nowhere. But today’s briefing leads with an update on a violent separatist movement causing trouble for both China and Pakistan.
THE HEADLINES
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China stock market rally fizzles out.
Investor euphoria over Beijing’s latest pledge to boost the economy appears to have fizzled out a little, after local markets reopened today (Tuesday) following China’s ‘Golden Week’ holiday. Stocks initially jumped 10% but the rally lost steam after a highly-anticipated government briefing offered little new detail for any further stimulus. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks plunged 9% on the same news, the biggest such fall in 16 years.
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Israel pushes further into Lebanon.
Israel says it’s expanded its ground offensive against listed terrorist group Hezbollah into southwest Lebanon, a week after Israeli troops first crossed the border. Meanwhile, Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant is due to visit the US today (Wednesday), presumably to discuss Israel’s next move against Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran.
India bails out Maldives.
Delhi has offered its neighbour a $760M currency swap to stave off a looming sovereign default. Jointly announced in India by the two leaders (Modi and Muizzu), the news is extra intriguing considering Muizzu ran on an ‘India Out’ platform in last year’s Maldivian elections, instead promising closer ties with China.
Florida braces for Hurricane Milton.
State authorities have issued their biggest evacuation orders in seven years after the storm, set to make landfall on Wednesday, strengthened briefly to a category 5 hurricane. It’s the second hurricane to make landfall in as many weeks, coming on the heels of Hurricane Helene which left over 200 people dead.
TOP STORY
Separatist group rocks China-Pakistan ties
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Just a week before Pakistan welcomes Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders for a summit, a suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese investors and engineers has now left at least two dead and another 10 injured near Pakistan’s major Karachi airport.
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Within hours of Sunday night’s attack, the separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) had claimed responsibility, China’s local embassy had denounced it, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had committed to “safeguarding our Chinese friends.”
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But why the attack?
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The BLA, a listed terrorist group, has long sought independence from Pakistan, aiming to carve out the southwest province of Balochistan (near Iran and Afghanistan) as the Baluch ethnic group’s own turf.
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Enter China, which has all kinds of reasons to make friends with Pakistan: partly because they’re neighbours, partly to develop and stabilise China’s own border areas, but also partly due to the region’s big game of chess: one of nuclear-armed China’s rivals is nuclear-armed India, which also happens to be rivals with nuclear-armed Pakistan.
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So Beijing announced its global Belt and Road Initiative on infrastructure back in 2013, and Pakistan has been its cornerstone ever since, getting some $65B for projects aimed at linking China’s own Xinjiang province with Pakistan’s coastal hubs like Gwadar and Karachi.
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Dubbed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the initiative has delivered lots of gleaming new highways, power plants, and beyond. But plot twist: that China-Pakistan ‘corridor’ also runs right through Pakistan’s Balochistan province, so the BLA argues China and Pakistan are simply grabbing its resources via “Chinese exploitative plans.”
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And the BLA has escalated things lately, reportedly with the help of US-made arms the neighbouring Taliban took after the US pulled out of Afghanistan:
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In 2018 it attacked China’s consulate in Karachi
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In 2019 it shot up a Gwadar hotel frequented by Chinese investors
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In 2020 it hit the Pakistan Stock Exchange (which has had CPEC boosts)
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In 2021 it struck a bus carrying Chinese workers
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In 2022 it killed three Chinese teachers in Karachi, and
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In 2023 it attacked another convoy of Chinese engineers.
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Meanwhile, Pakistan clearly has its own interests at play here: trying to a) quell its various armed insurgencies, b) get some much-needed infrastructure, and c) bring China close as a way to balance rival India next door.
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So Pakistan has remained a huge CPEC fan, and that’s meant seeking to clamp down on the BLA — within hours of brutal BLA attacks that left more than 70 people dead just in August, Pakistan approved another $72M for its military to combat Baloch armed groups.
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But can Pakistan end the Balochistan insurgency with force alone?
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There are a couple of complicating factors. First, it might not surprise you to learn that Balochistan is also Pakistan’s poorest province, with 70% of its population in poverty and two thirds of its 15 million people under the age of 30. That’s a lot of young and hopeless people vulnerable to malign actors. Of course, CPEC is theoretically meant to provide more economic opportunity, but that’s proving a tough sell.
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And second, the last two provincial elections ended up installing Balochistan governments with close ties to the Pakistani military, fuelling pre-existing scepticism towards Pakistan’s democracy. There are reports these results may also have pushed many on-the-fence locals to sympathise more with the BLA, as an answer to the Pakistani military’s force-first approach to handling local grievances.
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Anyway, that’s a taste of what’s playing out, just as a dozen or so world leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) prepare to touch down for next week’s summit.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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It’s worth a quick look at this ‘SCO’, which is a China (and Russia)-led grouping of ten countries in and around Central Asia. When it first emerged in 2001, it was basically pitched as a way to counter the influence of Western blocs like NATO.
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And that gets us to two observations:
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First, as China positions itself as an alternative to the US-led world order and seeks a bigger regional and global footprint to that end, it exposes itself to the same kinds of criticisms it’s long welcomed against the US, and
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Second, China’s motto on this journey has been to offer ‘win-win’ cooperation for its partners, but these developments out of Pakistan are a reminder that even two ‘wins’ may not always be enough.
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Also worth noting:
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The BLA is listed as a terrorist organisation in Pakistan, China, the UK, the US, and the EU. Armed Baloch separatists also target neighbouring Iran, which has responded with attacks back in Pakistan.
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Pakistan has long accused rival India of supporting armed insurgencies in Balochistan (accusations India has long denied).
We’re coming back, D.C!
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Join us in Washington, DC for “Securing Tomorrow: The Future of Cyber Threats and Global Defense” on Thursday, October 24 at 6 PM EDT.
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In an increasingly interconnected world, the stakes in cybersecurity have never been higher. We’re convening top minds to explore the cutting-edge of cyber defense, covering the escalating global cybercrime industry, the shadowy realm of industrial and state-sponsored attacks, and the critical need for international cooperation.
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Confirmed speakers include:
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Dr. Kathleen Fisher – Director, Information Innovation Office, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
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Brandon Wales – Vice President of Cybersecurity Strategy, SentinelOne and Former Executive Director at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)
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More to come!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Local authorities are reportedly asking a growing number of school teachers and state-owned enterprise employees to hand in their passports, giving officials more control over their travel plans. It all seems part of a renewed focus on loyalty, corruption, and espionage.
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🇮🇪 Ireland: President Michael D Higgins has criticised as “outrageous” an Israeli push for Irish UN peacekeeping troops to move from their outposts in southern Lebanon. Ireland’s 300 peacekeepers in the area form part of a 10,000-strong peacekeeping mission which the UN Security Council first established back in 1978.
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🇮🇳 India: According to Reuters, the Indian central bank has asked local state-run and private lenders to stop making heavy bets against the rupee, which has been hovering near record lows lately. Using what’s been described as “oral intervention”, the Reserve Bank of India seems determined to defend the rupee’s 84 threshold against the USD.
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🇺🇸 USA: A Russian court has sentenced an American citizen to seven years in jail for allegedly fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine. Stephen Hubbard, 72, is the first US citizen to be convicted of such charges.
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🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire: Ivorian authorities have seized 33 truckloads of cocoa beans that smugglers were hoping to sell in neighbouring Guinea for higher prices. In an effort to dissuade smuggling, the Ivory Coast (the world’s top cocoa producer) has announced it’ll now pay its farmers an extra 20%.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world have been googling lately
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Folks in 🇧🇷 Brazil searched for ‘vereadores eleitos 2024’ (councillors elected 2024) for the results of this weekend’s mayoral elections.
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Film buffs in 🇰🇭 Cambodia googled ‘joker movie’ to check out what global audiences are saying about the Joaquin Phoenix–Lady Gaga sequel (early reviews haven’t been glowing).
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And 🇨🇦 Canadians looked up ‘stroke risk fizzy drinks’ after a new study claimed links between the consumption of certain drinks (and too much coffee) to an increased risk of strokes, while apparently drinking tea may reduce risks.
PHOTOSHOP OF THE DAY
Credits: BBC / Newscom/ Prime Minister’s Office of Japan.
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Think influencers are the only ones who touch up their pics? Think again.
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This picture of Japan’s new cabinet made the rounds over the weekend after social media users noticed a later version of the photo was edited to make the new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, and his defence minister, Gen Nakatani, look more, well… put together.
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Tokyo eventually fessed up to the minor edit, and explained it’s usual to touch up photos that “will be preserved forever as memorabilia”.
DAILY POLL
Has the state of the world made you re-think your travel choices lately? |
Yesterday’s poll: When do you think the Israel-Hamas war and wider conflict will end?
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⏰ Maybe six months (10%)
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🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⏳ Another year or so (24%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🧊 Never (67%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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⏳ E.K.M: “The war will likely fall into the same pattern of other conflict flare-ups until a sustainable solution is reached, which seems much longer term.”
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⏰ R.L: “This depends so much on the US election result as well as Netanyahu’s legal cases.”
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✍️ J.M.C: “‘Never’ comes closest to what I expect but I’ll never say never. I’m still recovering from the shock of the Good Friday Agreements on Northern Ireland. Never thought I’d live to see that and it’s already more than 25 years since it happened.”
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